Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, and low - buying opportunities can be noted. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround still lies in exports. (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.17%) to 1731 yuan/ton, UR05 remained unchanged at 1738 yuan/ton, UR09 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.51%) to 1764 yuan/ton. Shandong decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.15%) to 1820 yuan/ton, and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small and Large Grains)**: Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.54%) to 1840 yuan/ton, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%) to 1790 yuan/ton, Northeast remained unchanged at 1880 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 1840 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.20%) to 5000 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1765 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1768 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1750 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1764 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1761 yuan/ton, and the持仓 volume was 197,992 thousand [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Pay attention to low - buying opportunities considering the support from July's top - dressing demand. But be aware of the significant downward pressure on urea prices if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient [1].