尿素日报 | 2025-07-11 上游煤炭走高，尿素偏强运行 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-10，尿素主力收盘1777元/吨（+7）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1850 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 83元/吨（+13）；河南基差：73元/吨（+3）；江苏基差：83元/吨（+3）；尿素生产利润330元/吨（+20），出口利润 696元/吨（-8）。 供应端：截至2025-07-10，企业产能利用率85.27%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为96.77 万吨（-5.08），港口样本 库存量为48.50 万吨（+4.80）。 需求端：截至2025-07-10，复合肥产能利用率29.83%（+0.58%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.56%（-0.43%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（+0.58）。 上游煤炭价格走高，同时印度尿素招标价格超预期，国际价格走高，提振市场氛围，尿素盘面偏强运行。部分计 划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。尿素出口配额逐步释放，出口订单近期集中集港，港口 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250711: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 7月10日 7月9日 | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1733.00 1720.00 | 1736.00 1700.00 | -3.00 20.00 | -0.17% 1.18% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1737.00 | 1736.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1777.00 | 1770.00 | 7.00 | 0.40% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1860.00 | 1840.00 | 20.00 | 1.09% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1850.00 | 1840.00 | 10.00 | 0.54% | | | (小顆粒) | 河 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea price has boosted the sentiment of the domestic market. Although the current industrial demand is weak, export orders are still being shipped, and there is a partial increase in agricultural demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The nitrogen association has announced the export guidance price for urea. Overall, the international price is rising, and the domestic urea sentiment is also high. Supported by factory export orders and ongoing port collection, the futures market still has support and will remain mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low, with a late - day plunge but still closing up. The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The daily production of urea changed little, and some previously overhauled devices were expected to resume production, increasing output. Both agricultural and industrial demand were cautious in purchasing, mainly for replenishing inventory as needed. Agricultural demand was better than industrial demand, and it was expected to end in the Northeast and North China this month. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, with only a slight increase. The factory was in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, mainly clearing inventory, and was waiting and seeing, purchasing urea only as needed. Despite weak industrial demand, export orders were being shipped, and inventory was continuously decreasing. The nitrogen association announced the export guidance price for urea. The market was expected to be mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1777 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 1,642 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,140 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed [2] - **Spot**: The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei factories ranged from 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7] - **Supply Data**: On July 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.63% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From July 4th to July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On July 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 400 compared to the previous trading day, with 400 more in Meishan Xindu [3]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250710: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | | 单位 | 7月9日 | 7月8日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 UR09 山东 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1736.00 1736.00 1770.00 1840.00 | 1723.00 1727.00 1763.00 1820.00 | 13.00 9.00 7.00 20.00 | 0.75% 0.52% 0.40% 1.10% | | 期现价格 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1700.00 | 1680.00 | 20.00 | 1.19% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1840.00 | 1810.00 | 30.00 | 1.66% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1780.00 | 20.00 | 1.12% | | 东北 | | | ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-09 夏肥支撑盘面，等待印标价格公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-08，尿素主力收盘1763元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1810 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1820元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：57 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：47元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：77元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+0），出口利润701 元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-08，企业产能利用率84.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-08，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 目前夏季用肥支撑尿素盘面价格，等待印标价格公布。尿素部分计划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。北 方局部区域追肥用量继续释放，农需继续推进。复合肥维持季节性淡季，三聚氰胺开工低 ...

| | | 尿素早评20250709: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 英化值 单位 7月8日 7月7日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 房素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1723.00 1727.00 1820.00 | 1712.00 1716.00 1820.00 | 11.00 11.00 0.00 | 0.64% 0.64% 0.00% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1763.00 | 1748.00 | 15.00 | 0.86% | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1680.00 | 1670.00 | 10.00 | 0.60% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250708: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 変化值 单位 7月7日 7月4日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1712.00 1716.00 | 1702.00 1709.00 | 10.00 7.00 | 0.59% 0.41% | | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1748.00 | 1735.00 | 13.00 | 0.75% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1820.00 1670.00 | 1810.00 1680.00 | 10.00 -10.00 | 0.55% -0.60% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1810.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) | 河 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250707: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 7月4日 | 7月3日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1702.00 1810.00 | 1699.00 1800.00 | 3.00 10.00 | 0.18% 0.56% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1709.00 | 1713.00 | -4.00 | -0.23% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1735.00 | 1737.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1680.00 | 1660.00 | 20.00 | 1.20% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1800.00 | 10.00 | 0.56% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | ...

Group 1: Economic Development and Investment - The major project by Jinxiang Sairui Chemical Co., with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, aims to solidify the company's leading position in the global melamine industry and boost the local economy [1] - In 2024, the added value of the private economy in Meishan is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, reaching 117.037 billion yuan, accounting for 61.9% of the GDP, becoming a core engine for regional economic transformation [1][6] - The private economy in Meishan achieved an added value of 27.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, growing by 8.0%, contributing 4.9 percentage points to GDP growth [6] Group 2: Policy Support and Financial Innovation - Meishan has introduced a series of policies to empower private enterprises, including a comprehensive policy system to optimize the business environment and a "one-stop" service mechanism for enterprises [2][3] - The "Tax and Electricity Index Loan" product has provided credit of 4.518 billion yuan to 1,042 private enterprises, with loan disbursements reaching 2.775 billion yuan [3] - The city has implemented various measures to ensure that policy benefits reach enterprises, including a special fund of over 114 million yuan for key industries and intelligent manufacturing upgrades [3] Group 3: Innovation and Technology Development - Meishan Boya New Materials Co. has invested over 80 million yuan in R&D over the past three years, obtaining 108 patents, including 29 international patents [4][5] - The company is a leading global producer of LYSO scintillation crystals, holding 82.2% of the domestic market and over 30% of the global market share [4] Group 4: Business Environment and Cost Reduction - Meishan has streamlined administrative processes, reducing project approval times by over 40%, and has implemented various cost-reduction measures, saving enterprises over 2 billion yuan in electricity costs [7][8] - The city has also reduced the bidding guarantee for government investment projects and implemented electronic bidding to further lower costs for enterprises [8]

| | | 尿素早评20250704: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 変化值 变化值 单位 7月3日 7月2日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1699.00 | 1698.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% 0.56% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1713.00 | 1710.00 | 3.00 | 0.18% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1737.00 | 1739.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1800.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1660.00 | 10.00 0.00 | | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1780.00 | 20.00 | 1.12% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 ...