尿素日报 | 2026-01-09 下游跟单放缓 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-08，尿素主力收盘1776元/吨（-14）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-16 元/吨（+24）；河南基差：-26元/吨（+14）；江苏基差：-16元/吨（+14）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（+10），出口利润 837元/吨（-6）。 供应端：截至2026-01-08，企业产能利用率83.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为102.22 万吨（+0.30），港口样本 库存量为13.50 万吨（-3.70）。 需求端：截至2026-01-08，复合肥产能利用率37.17%（+3.28%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为54.35%（+6.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.41日（+0.41）。 尿素元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除，成交好转，期货盘面震荡偏强进一步带动现货采购情绪，现货价格小幅上 涨，价格上涨新单成交放缓。供应端四季度气头检修12月开始，1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复， ...

厂内库存基本持平 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-07，尿素主力收盘1790元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -40元/吨（-2）；河南基差：-40元/吨（-12）；江苏基差：-30元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（+10），出口利润 843元/吨（-21）。 尿素日报 | 2026-01-08 供应端：截至2026-01-07，企业产能利用率80.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为102.22 万吨（+0.30），港口样本 库存量为17.20 万吨（-0.50）。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 需求端：截至2026-01-07，复合肥产能利用率33.89%（-3.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为47.65%（-10.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.41日（+0.41）。 尿素元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除，成交好转，期 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-07 现货成交氛围延续，印标结果出炉 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-06，尿素主力收盘1778元/吨（+10）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1740元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1750元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -38元/吨（+10）；河南基差：-28元/吨（+20）；江苏基差：-28元/吨（+10）；尿素生产利润175元/吨（+20），出口 利润864元/吨（+46）。 供应端：截至2026-01-06，企业产能利用率80.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.92 万吨（-4.97），港口样本 库存量为17.20 万吨（-0.50）。 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 需求端：截至2026-01-06，复合肥产能利用率33.89%（-3.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为47.65%（-10.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.00日（-0.35）。 尿素元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除， ...

纯碱产量将显著增加，尽管产能增幅放缓至 0.58%，但产量增幅预计达到 5.65%，全年总产量可能达到 4,100 万吨。这主要是由于部分新增产能将在今 年逐步实现满负荷生产。 需求方面，重质纯碱需求疲软。浮法玻璃和光伏玻璃 两大主要下游板块需求下降明显。浮法玻璃日熔量持续下降，截至去年 12 月 底降至 14.96 万吨以下。而光伏玻璃虽然整体需求相对稳定，但库存压力较大， 并且存在堵窑口风险，即不再消耗纯碱但保持生产线运行。 轻质纯碱需求表现 良好，下游如碳酸锂、环保行业（污水处理）及传统行业（如碳酸氢钠）消费 量增加。据估算，2025 年轻质纯碱需求同比增幅达 9.8%，增量约 50-60 万 吨。这种增长趋势有助于部分抵消重质纯碱需求疲软带来的压力。 综上所述， 尽管短期内供需格局依然偏弱，但政策支持和轻质纯碱需求增长可能为未来提 供一定支撑。然而，由于供应压力仍然存在，需要密切关注政策变化及其对市 场的影响。 纯碱、尿素行业专家交流 20260106 摘要 2024 年纯碱价格下跌，目前估值较低，需关注房地产托底政策及石化、 能化产业政策对市场的影响，这些政策可能带动下游行业回暖。 2025 年纯碱 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The urea futures market rebounded last week due to news stimulus, but there is no official confirmation. Fundamentally, there is limited rigid support, and the upside potential of the futures price is restricted. It is expected that the futures price will experience a correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics Since the New Year's Day holiday, the market has been weak, with poor order receipts and mostly low - price purchases. Recently, the futures have continued to rebound, the spot sentiment has improved, the purchasing rhythm has become smoother, and most quotes have risen [1][3][4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - **Price and Volume**: By January 5th, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 29th. The weekly trading volume last week was 13.1874 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,800 tons; the open interest was 6.2529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 331,500 tons [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The futures increase was greater than the spot increase last week, and the basis weakened. As of January 5th, the basis of the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. As of December 22nd, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4 yuan/ton [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On January 5, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,376, a week - on - week increase of 1,626 [9]. 3.3 Urea Supply - **Production**: From December 25th to December 31st, the weekly urea production was 1.3591 million tons, an increase of 25,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%. The average daily production was 194,100 tons. It is expected that 3 enterprises will stop production and 5 will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 5th, the national daily urea production was 202,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57% [11]. - **Raw Materials**: Near the end of the year, coal mines are expected to reduce production, and coal prices are expected to be strong. The domestic LNG price decreased last week. The synthetic ammonia price increased, while the urea spot price decreased. The methanol spot price also decreased [13][14]. 3.4 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of January 2nd, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Affected by environmental protection warnings, the compound fertilizer operating rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the environmental protection warnings may ease in mid - January, but the factories will gradually enter the holiday season [16]. - **Melamine**: From December 26th to January 2nd, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 47.65%, a decrease of 10.42 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate is expected to increase as the previously shut - down plants resume production [16]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2nd, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 172,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory is expected to rise [18]. 3.5 International Market - **Production and Tendering**: Iran has cut production, and the price center has moved up. India's NFL urea import tender opened on January 2nd, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons [20]. - **Prices**: As of January 2nd, most of the international urea prices showed an upward trend, with some exceptions for large - particle Chinese FOB prices [20][22].

尿素2026年1月报： 预期支撑 近弱远强 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2026-01-05 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 目 录 01 尿素期现价格回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素需求分析 08 尿素后市行情展望 01 尿素期现价格回顾 资料来源：同花顺，卓创资讯，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素产能产量分析 p 12月尿素价格先弱后强，期货价格走弱带动主力基差走强，后期货价格向上修复，主力基差走弱。供应端开工负荷微 降，整体现货供应环比减少。复合肥、淡储有序跟进采购，农业刚需零售补单。厂家出货尚可，库存持续去库带动价 格成交重心上移。 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2025/01 2025/02 2025/03 2025 ...

尿素月报 | 2026-01-04 需求柔性支撑，关注采购节奏及消息扰动 市场要闻与数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1749元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒市场价1700元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-39元/吨（-6）；河南尿素基差-49元/吨（+4）；江苏尿素基差-39 元/吨（-6）。12月先跌后涨，上半月随着下游畏高情绪凸显，储备节奏放缓，期现价格共振下跌。部分区域环保限 制导致下游开工下降，随后上游部分企业也受影响供应下滑，月中随着印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，尿素 现货成交氛围好转，带动价格上涨，环保预警再现，尿素部分上下游开工受限，现货价格降价吸单，现货采购情 绪再度好转。 供应端：截至2026-01-04，企业产能利用率78.78%（-1.9%）；尿素月度产量为600万吨，同比+7.66%。尿素12月部 分气头进入检修，装置检修与复产并行，月度产量较11月小幅增加。8月安徽中能、章丘日月投产，9月九江心连 心投产，10月甘肃金昌投产，11月新疆中能投产。1月暂定3套气头装置计划检修，部分气头检修企业以及前期技 改装置回 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-31 消息扰动情绪好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-30，尿素主力收盘1743元/吨（+8）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1690 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-33 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-53元/吨（-18）；江苏基差：-33元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润131元/吨（+0），出口利润822 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-12-30，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-30，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.11）。 尿素期现受出口消息影响情绪好转，虽市场紧急辟谣，但元旦前企业仍有收单需求，尿素现货市场采购情绪好转。 河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开 ...

ZHESHANG FUTURES 【UR周报20251228】区间震荡有支撑 核心观点 2025-12-29 * 合约: UR605 ® 观点： 尿素 下跌空间有限，在[1600]价位存在支撑 【UR周报20251228】区间震荡有支撑 日期: 2025-12-29 ® 退缉： ①近期国内气头装置逐任开始检验，日产环比下降，但产量和开工同比维持高位：②需求碳目内容融上干淡季，以储备外库存主，工业复合肥进入淡储肥生产，需求碳环比有所走强；�成本就能规制介重小抬升， 尿素成本支撑在1500-1550的近。�第四批出口配额下发，数量预期在60万吨左右，关注后期具体出口数量。总体来看，在淡储和出口调节下，尿素向下驱动放缓。以震荡苍同对待。 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为駒 | 情形駒 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 音保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | 煤化工生产 企V | ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai announced a tax payment of 48.89 million yuan, including 39.98 million yuan in taxes and 8.91 million yuan in late fees, which will impact the company's 2025 net profit [1][2] Financial Impact - The tax payment and late fees have been fully paid and will be recorded in the 2025 financial results, affecting the net profit directly [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Huatai reported a revenue of 1.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.07%, but a net profit of 21.98 million yuan, a decline of 72.61% [3] - The third quarter alone saw a net loss of 7.34 million yuan, marking a significant downturn compared to previous periods [3] Reasons for Profit Decline - The decline in net profit is attributed to two main factors: increased sales revenue due to market expansion and service optimization, but lower product prices leading to reduced gross margins [3] - Additionally, the accelerated depreciation from the "synthetic ammonia energy-saving and environmental upgrade project" has significantly impacted profit levels [3] Operational Strategy - The company plans to enhance cost control, optimize production processes, and improve operational efficiency to address the current challenges [4] - Huatai is extending its industrial chain and optimizing its product structure, with recent projects including a 20,000-ton aniline production project and a 1.153 billion yuan investment in a carbon dioxide comprehensive utilization project [4] - The new projects aim to produce aniline series products and amino resin, which have broad market applications, particularly in the coatings sector [4]