尿素日报 | 2026-02-27 尿素下游复合肥开工提升 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-26，尿素主力收盘1836元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1830 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：24 元/吨（+2）；河南基差：-6元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：24元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润295元/吨（+0），出口利润1165 元/吨（-22）。 节日后期部分农业需求启动，节后成交较好，主产销区现货报价达到2月尿素指导价，预计2月现货价格暂时稳定 为主。供应端部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡储货源2月投放10%。需求端春节后返青肥陆续开 启，春节前复合肥开工下降，节后前期停车装置陆续恢复，市场情绪好转，走货放量。三聚氰胺装置部分临时停 车，开工下降，刚需采购。尿素农需跟进，春节期间受物流影响，厂内库存累库，港口库存小幅累库。印度RCF2 月7日发布尿素进口招标，意向150万吨（东海岸70西海岸80），2月18日开标，有效期至2月28日，最晚船期3月31 日。共收到20个供货商总 ...

Group 1: China Ping An - The core strategy of China Ping An is "comprehensive finance + medical care and elderly care," which aims to create a new value growth pole through a "product + service" model, leading to long-term stable profit growth [3][4] - The report suggests that the current market valuation of China Ping An is low, with a PEV of 0.75, and recommends a target market value of 1.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 88.53 yuan per share [3][4] - The aging population in China and the increasing importance of commercial health insurance in medical payments are expected to enhance the effectiveness of the "product + service" model, positioning it as a new growth driver for the company [3][4] Group 2: Steel Research High Temperature Alloy - Steel Research High Temperature Alloy is a leading company in the high-temperature alloy sector, benefiting from strong demand in the aerospace industry and the trend towards technological self-sufficiency [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit, with forecasts of 132 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 172 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the resilience of the high-temperature alloy industry, driven by increasing defense budgets and the upgrade of aerospace equipment, which supports long-term demand [6][7] Group 3: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is recognized for its strong innovation capabilities, with a focus on oncology and chronic disease treatment pipelines, and has established an international business development ecosystem [8][9] - The company has entered a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs, which is expected to generate significant revenue potential [9][10] - The report predicts EPS growth of 48%, 36%, and -7% for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 16.58 HKD per share [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with only 19% of cities showing signs of bottoming out as of Q4 2025 [18][19] - New home prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in first-tier cities, while second-hand home prices are generally declining [19][20] - The report indicates that the inventory clearance cycle is extending, with first-tier cities reaching 19-28 months and some second-tier cities exceeding 38 months [20] Group 5: Robotics and Automation - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robotics sector, with new product launches expected to drive growth [21][22] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.14, 1.47, and 1.83 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 147.00 yuan per share [21][22] - The company is leveraging its expertise in micro-drive systems to enhance its competitive position in the robotics market [22][23] Group 6: Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage sector is anticipated to see significant growth, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in provinces like Qinghai [36][37] - The report suggests that the demand for energy storage systems and batteries will increase, recommending several key stocks in this sector [36][37] - The expected growth rate for energy storage demand in 2026 is projected to be around 50% [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Bullish with a sideways trend [3] - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread when the price is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the trading volume was good. The manufacturers had no pressure in receiving orders during the Spring Festival, and the prices remained stable. In the later stage of the festival, some agricultural demand started. It is expected that the spot price in February will remain stable for the time being. The supply will increase as some gas - based and technological - reformed enterprises resume production, and 10% of the off - season reserve goods will be released in February. After the Spring Festival, the demand for green - turning fertilizers will gradually start, the compound fertilizer plants will resume production, the melamine plants will increase their operating rates, and the overall inventory in urea plants will decrease while the port inventory will slightly increase. The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender, and the domestic export quota has no new news. Attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 24, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1855 yuan/ton (+22). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1830 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1850 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu was 1850 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 5 yuan/ton (+18), in Henan was - 25 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 5 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 90.59% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 285 yuan/ton (+40), and the export profit was 1175 yuan/ton (+126) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The Indian RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intended volume of 1.5 million tons (700,000 tons on the east coast and 800,000 tons on the west coast). The tender was opened on February 18, valid until February 28, and the latest shipping date was March 31. A total of 3.07 million tons of bids were received from 20 suppliers. The lowest offer on the east coast was CFR 512 US dollars/ton, and on the west coast was CFR 508 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 24, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.50% (- 11.69%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.17% (+3.40), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.47 tons (- 8.38), and the port sample inventory was 16.60 tons (unchanged) [1]

Group 1 - The benchmark price of melamine on February 23 is 5737.50 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of the month when it was 5675.00 CNY per ton [1] - The daily price remains unchanged at 5737.50 CNY per ton, indicating stability in the market for that day [3] - The one-year price position is at the median level, with a minimum price of 5375.00 CNY and a maximum price of 6275.00 CNY, suggesting a range of price fluctuations over the year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pre - holiday urea price remains firm, with the 05 contract being relatively resistant to decline. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the industry's inventory accumulation after the holiday. The 05&09 spread may continue to oscillate strongly due to the optimistic expectation of peak - season demand. The industry profit is improving but the upside may be limited due to the overall loose supply - demand situation [6][8][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The 05 contract of urea rebounded this week, reaching a new high on Thursday. The UR2605 contract closed at 1843 yuan/ton on Thursday. The pre - holiday urea market is strong. Although the demand is ending, the downstream replenishment is active, the factory orders are good and the inventory is controllable. The 05 contract may resist decline after the holiday supported by the spring - plowing demand [6] - The spot prices in various regions are firm, with the downstream actively replenishing. The factory's offer prices are gradually rising, and the market sentiment is positive. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong is about 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton [8] - The basis of the 05 contract in Shandong and Henan oscillated and declined this week. As of Thursday, the basis of Shandong's 05 contract was about - 43 yuan/ton, and that of Henan's was about - 33 yuan/ton. The UR03&05 spread was about - 19 yuan/ton, and the UR05&09 spread was about 40 yuan/ton, and the latter may continue to oscillate strongly [8] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts has been falling from a high level recently. As the warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled in February, the number will further decline. As of Thursday, there were about 10,949 urea warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Huilong Group, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [9] Device Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea device maintenance volume was about 143,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons from the previous period. The coal - based device maintenance volume was about 93,500 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, and the gas - based device maintenance volume was about 49,700 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The supply pressure may continue to recover [12] - As of February 12, the domestic urea operating rate was about 90.59%, a rise of about 1.45% from the previous period. The weekly urea output was about 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 23,900 tons from last week, and the average daily output was about 213,300 tons, a slight increase of 3,400 tons. The inventory device load may further increase [14] Demand Side - The compound fertilizer operating rate decreased significantly this week. As of February 12, it was about 36.19%, a decline of 5.6% from last week. The profit was generally stable. The inventory increased by 5.02% to about 787,100 tons. During the Spring Festival, the load will remain low and then gradually recover, which will put pressure on soda ash [15][16] - The melamine operating rate increased slightly to about 60.77% as of February 12, and the output also increased slightly. The resumption of some devices drove the load to rebound, and the market fluctuation is relatively limited due to sufficient pending orders [18] Inventory and Pre - orders - As of February 11, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 834,700 tons, a decrease of about 83,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of about 9.12%. The port inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons to about 166,000 tons. The pre - order days increased to about 11.12 days. After the holiday, the inventory may rise and put pressure on the price [20] Industry Profit - As of February 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 82 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry profit was about 291 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the natural - gas profit was about - 208 yuan/ton. The industry profit has been improving and may continue to improve after the holiday, but the upside is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [23]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Urea Market Weekly Report from Ruida Futures Research Institute on February 13, 2026, with researcher Lin Jingyi [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The domestic urea market showed a narrow - range upward trend this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Despite being in the last order - receiving period before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment was active, and factory prices gradually increased [7] Market Outlook - Some previously shut - down plants resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. Next week, no plant is planned to shut down, and one shut - down plant may resume. Considering possible short - term equipment failures, output is expected to remain stable. There is still some local agricultural demand, but most demand is on hold due to the Spring Festival. Compound fertilizer enterprises entered the production - reduction stage this week, with capacity utilization decreasing week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the short term and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, but may start to accumulate during the Spring Festival due to reduced long - distance logistics [7] Strategy Suggestion - During the long holiday, pay attention to the impact of external macro - situation, geopolitics, and temperature on post - festival agricultural demand [7] Group 3: Futures Market Price Movement - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 3.21% [10] Spread - As of February 13, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 41 [12] Position Analysis - No detailed information on the change of net long positions of the top 20 in urea futures is provided, only the name of the analysis item is mentioned [15] Warehouse Receipts - As of February 13, there were 10,382 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, a decrease of 478 from last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market Domestic Price - As of February 12, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [26] International Price - As of February 12, the FOB price of urea in China was 442.5 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week [30] Basis - As of February 12, the urea basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [34] Group 5: Upstream Market Coal and Gas Prices - As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37] Group 6: Industry Situation Production and Capacity Utilization - As of February 12, China's urea production was 1.4931 million tons, up 23,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.63%. The capacity utilization rate was 90.59%, up 1.45% from the previous period [40] Inventory - As of February 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 166,000 tons, up 1000 tons week - on - week, a 0.61% increase. As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, down 83,800 tons from last week, a 9.12% decrease [43] Export - In December 2025, urea exports were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% decrease from the previous month [46] Group 7: Downstream Market Compound Fertilizer and Melamine - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19%, down 5.6 percentage points week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the next period and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 51.5%, down 7.3 percentage points from last week [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

尿素日报 | 2026-02-12 厂内库存节前去库 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-11，尿素主力收盘1797元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1800 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：3元 /吨（-12）；河南基差：3元/吨（-12）；江苏基差：13元/吨（-12）；尿素生产利润235元/吨（+0），出口利润1048元/ 吨（-15）。 供应端：截至2026-02-11，企业产能利用率89.14%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为83.47 万吨（-8.38），港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨（+2.10）。 需求端：截至2026-02-11，复合肥产能利用率32.46%（-9.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%（-8.50%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数11.12日（+2.30）。 厂家春节收单无压力，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求 端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家春节收单基本结束。部分淡储货源2月投放10%。复合肥开工 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-02-11 春节收单接近尾声 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-10，尿素主力收盘1785元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1800 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： 15元/吨（+13）；河南基差：15元/吨（+13）；江苏基差：25元/吨（+13）；尿素生产利润235元/吨（+10），出口利 润1063元/吨（-17）。 供应端：截至2026-02-10，企业产能利用率89.14%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.85 万吨（-2.64），港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨（+2.10）。 需求端：截至2026-02-10，复合肥产能利用率32.46%（-9.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%（-8.50%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数8.82日（+2.23）。 部分厂家收单好转，农业需求跟进，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应 量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家春节收单接近尾声。淡储采购进入后期，部 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. - The gas - fired plants have basically resumed production, and production is normal during the Chinese New Year. Agricultural demand for goods is good, and the peak season for wheat top - dressing after the Spring Festival is approaching. Industrial demand is gradually weakening. - The overall volatility of the macro - market and commodities increased last week, but urea remained relatively stable. After the Indian tender was issued on Saturday, the futures rose on Monday. The probability of spot price reduction before the festival is low, and the futures will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan's prices at the lower end [4]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the futures showed a downward - opening and mostly weak - oscillating trend. As of February 9, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. The weekly trading volume was 12.8833 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4244 million tons; the open interest was 7.5489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5991 million tons. - After the Indian tender was released on Saturday, the domestic market sentiment improved, and the futures rose. Last week, the increase in urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis strengthened. As of February 9, the 05 - contract basis was 2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton. - On February 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10860, a week - on - week decrease of 396 [6][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply - From January 29 to February 4, the weekly urea output was 1.4692 million tons, an increase of 14310 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.98%, and the average daily output was 209900 tons. The coal - based weekly output was 1.2428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the gas - based weekly output was 226400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. The small - particle weekly output was 117780 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%; the large - particle weekly output was 291400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. - It is expected that 4 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of February 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210000 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.26%. - The prices of coking coal and anthracite coal are expected to remain stable, and the price of liquefied natural gas has increased. The price of synthetic ammonia has decreased, and the price of urea has increased. The methanol price has remained stable [12][14][15]. 3.4. Urea Demand - As of February 9, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was basically flat last week. Before the festival, they continued to stock up for production, and the inventory in the factory decreased slightly. The terminal sales were good. The last operating data before the holiday is expected to show a week - on - week decline. As of February 6, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 41.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. - From January 30 to February 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous period and 7.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Before the holiday, downstream panel factories and melamine production entered the holiday mode and are currently at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [17]. 3.5. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918500 tons, a decrease of 26400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and 827400 tons lower than the same period last year. The downstream agricultural demand for goods is smooth, but the factory demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the downstream inventory is still being smoothly reduced, which verifies the tight - balance supply - demand logic and supports the urea market. The port sample inventory was 165000 tons, an increase of 21000 tons from the previous week [20]. 3.6. International Market - India's RCF issued a new round of urea import tender, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons. Under the influence of the new Indian tender, market confidence is boosted, and international urea prices are expected to continue to rise. - As of February 9, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 455 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.5 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22].