供应回归，需求支撑较弱 尿素月报 2025/10/10 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 行情回顾 | 9月国内农业需求淡季，出口虽持续推进但无法消化国内产量，企业库存持续走高，国内供应过剩格局未改，现货持续走低， 盘面走势反复，整体表现为震荡下跌，基差与月差均创下历史低位，尿素整体依旧维持低估值与弱驱动格局，需求端未有明 | | --- | --- | | | 显利多出现，价格继续偏弱震荡。 | | | 供应  9月国内尿素产量575万吨，环比减少18万吨，同比增11万吨。  9月农需淡季，市场需求平淡。  | | |  随着检修装置的回归，日产再度回到同比高位水平，供应压力高位。 | | | 需求  淡季需求增量主要依赖出口，8月出口大增，9月预计维持高位。 | | | 复合肥秋季肥生产开始回落，开工回到低位水平。 | | 基本面 | ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20251010:向上驱动未现,供给压力驱动向下 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 10月9日 | | | 9月30日 | | 变化值 | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1609.00 | 1670.00 | (絶对值) -61.00 | (相对值) -3.65% | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR05 UR09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1677.00 1701.00 | 1717.00 1742.00 | -40.00 -41.00 | -2.33% -2.35% | | | | | | | 1600.00 | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1560.00 | | -40.00 | -2.50% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1460.00 | 1490.00 | -30.00 | -2.01% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1590.00 | -20.00 | -1.26% ...

"内卷"严重 产能激增 价格连跌 中化新网讯 近日，由中国氮肥工业协会主办、潞安化工丰喜集团承办的2025年全国三聚氰胺行业工作 会议在山西运城召开。协会理事长顾宗勤指出，今年以来三聚氰胺行业市场规模变化不大，但价格延续 去年下跌趋势，市场竞争加剧，"内卷"现象严重，部分企业成本倒挂、经营困难，严控产能已迫在眉 睫。 据中氮协统计，近几年三聚氰胺产能年均增速达5%以上。2024年国内三聚氰胺产能231万吨，产量 164.2万吨，比2023年增长9.8%，企业开工率71%；2025年1至8月，国内产能已达242万吨，产量111.8万 吨，同比增长3.8%，企业开工率降低至69%。预计到2025年底，行业总产能将达260万吨，未来几年还 将有94万吨新增产能陆续投产。 今年以来，受房地产市场低迷影响，国内三聚氰胺需求与价格双双承压。下游板材等核心应用行业需求 疲软，部分时段还遭遇传统淡季，进一步抑制需求释放。价格方面，1至8月国内三聚氰胺平均价格为 5239元(吨价，下同)，与2024年相比，降低1340元，同比下降20%。 出口同样面临挑战。2024年，我国三聚氰胺出口量比上年增长21.3%，但2025年1至8 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20251010:向上驱动未现,供给压力驱动向下 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 10月9日 | | | 9月30日 | | 变化值 | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1609.00 | 1670.00 | (絶对值) -61.00 | (相对值) -3.65% | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR05 UR09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1677.00 1701.00 | 1717.00 1742.00 | -40.00 -41.00 | -2.33% -2.35% | | | | | | | 1600.00 | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1560.00 | | -40.00 | -2.50% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1460.00 | 1490.00 | -30.00 | -2.01% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1570.00 | 1590.00 | -20.00 | -1.26% ...

尿素2025年10月报： 供应压力延续 关注需求边际改善 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-10-09 目 录 01 尿素期现价格回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市行情展望 01 尿素期货价格回顾 p 9月现货实际成交偏弱，出口预期下调，叠加化工板块偏弱运行，尿素价格震荡下行。9月30日收盘于1670元/吨，较月 初下调73元/吨，跌幅4.19%。 资料来源：同花顺，长江期货能化产业服务中心 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2019/12 2020/ 2 2020/ 4 2020/ 6 2020/ 8 2020/10 2020/12 2021/02 2021/04 2021/06 2021/08 2021/10 2021/12 202 /02 202 /04 202 /06 202 /08 202 ...

10月9日，雪峰科技涨5.16%，截至发稿，报9.57元/股，成交3.36亿元，换手率3.67%，总市值102.56亿 元。 截至发稿，芮定坤累计任职时间3年309天，现任基金资产总规模4.06亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 35.79%， 任职期间最差基金回报-15.08%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，民生加银基金旗下1只基金重仓雪峰科技。民生加银周期优选混合A（011888）二季度持有 股数16.35万股，占基金净值比例为4.33%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约7.68万元。 民生加银周期优选混合A（011888）成立日期2021年6月22日，最新规模2574.81万。今年以来收益 45.58%，同类排名1653/8238；近一年收益36.12%，同类排名2341/8082；成立以来亏损7.82%。 民生加银周期优选混合A（011888）基金经理为芮定坤。 资料显示，新疆雪峰科技(集团 ...

随着夏季农业需求的结束，尿素价格持续保持震荡下行态势，且在有一定出口配额的情况下，这一趋势并未发生变 化。目前尿素现货价格已经接近近几年的低位，且目前供大于求格局难改，尿素价格或继续震荡偏弱运行。 供应保持高位 2025年尿素产能进入新的增长周期。按年初的预计，2025年投产产能将超过700万吨，就日产情况看，全年平均日产 同比增长1.5万～2万吨，目前日产量在20万吨左右，为近5年来的高位，高日产已经成为常态。库存方面，目前尿素 库存处于较高水平，企业库存在120万吨左右，为近5年来的高位，且当前处于农业需求淡季，库存将继续维持累积 状态，社会库存也相对偏高。整体看，高日产、高库存已成为压制尿素价格的关键因素。 图为复合肥开工率 三聚氰胺方面，近几年新增产能较多，周产量一度达到4万吨左右，确实给尿素需求带来了一定增量。但从2025年的 情况看，三聚氰胺生产企业开工率明显下滑，尤其是今年下半年，下滑态势尤为明显，从72%下滑至46%，且大多维 持在50%~55%水平，较上年同期减少5到10个百分点。因此三聚氰胺的生产对尿素行情的支撑也相对有限。 其他需求方面，由于房地产行业未见明显改善，2025年板材需求继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Yulin Economic and Technological Development Zone is actively developing its coal chemical industry by attracting investment and enhancing its industrial structure, focusing on high-end, diversified, and low-carbon development strategies. Group 1: Industrial Development - Yulin Economic and Technological Development Zone has introduced several major projects, including the National Energy Group's coal comprehensive utilization project and Shaanxi Coal's 15 million tons/year clean and efficient coal conversion project [1][4] - The zone aims to build a modern coal chemical industry system characterized by two trillion-level projects, four hundred billion-level projects, and numerous fine chemical projects led by private enterprises [4][6] Group 2: Project Highlights - The Shaanxi Coal Yulin Chemical Company is constructing the world's largest coal chemical project with a total investment of approximately 176 billion yuan, focusing on high-value materials and special fuels [7] - The Yulin Economic and Technological Development Zone has attracted 125 projects with a total investment exceeding 100 billion yuan, forming various industrial chains such as coal-methanol-olefins and coal-ethylene-new materials [8] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The Yulin Economic and Technological Development Zone has established a technology innovation platform to support the development of high-tech enterprises and promote the transformation of scientific achievements [15][17] - The zone has implemented a "business-to-business" investment attraction model, successfully bringing in specialized projects that enhance the local industrial chain [10][12] Group 4: Investment Environment - The Yulin Economic and Technological Development Zone is committed to creating a first-class business environment, streamlining approval processes, and providing comprehensive services to attract new projects [21][22] - The zone's leadership is actively involved in project promotion, ensuring that key projects receive full support throughout their development [21]

| | 尿素早评20250929:供给压力继续提升 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | 变化值 英化值 单位 9月26日 9月25日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 尿素期货价格 山东 山西 | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1600.00 1490.00 | 1674.00 1610.00 1490.00 | -5.00 -10.00 0.00 | -0.30% -0.62% | | UR05 | | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1727.00 | -7.00 | -0.41% | | (收盘价) UR09 | | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1747.00 | -7.00 | -0.40% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | 0.00% | | 河南 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) 河北 | | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 ...

Summary of the Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry and its current challenges and strategies in response to overcapacity and profitability issues [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profitability Improvement**: Industry associations are implementing collaborative mechanisms to bring poorly performing products back to cost levels, allowing leading companies to stabilize their profit margins [1][2]. - **Unified Market Policy**: The aim is to eliminate underperforming companies and standardize new entrants to prevent regional capacity transfer, promoting orderly industry development and enhancing product price elasticity [1][2]. - **Investment Growth**: From 2020 to 2024, the chemical industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% in fixed asset investment, significantly higher than previous cycles. However, demand decline has led to a notable reduction in capacity utilization and profitability [1][3]. - **Export Limitations**: Relying solely on exports is insufficient to alleviate domestic overcapacity. Anti-dumping measures from various countries restrict export capabilities, making it unrealistic to rely on international markets to absorb excess supply [4]. - **Dual Strategy for Overcapacity**: The industry will adopt a dual approach of strong regulation and soft constraints to manage capacity and achieve supply-demand balance. This includes policy support and collaborative mechanisms to control production and pricing [5]. - **Complexity of the Chemical Sector**: The chemical industry is complex, with various sub-sectors and products, making supply-side reforms challenging. The need for extensive data collection contributes to the slow pace of reform [6][9]. - **Historical Context**: The current phase of supply-side reform differs from 2016 due to technological barriers, diminishing returns on new investments, and increased project approval difficulties under a unified market policy [9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Environmental and Safety Regulations**: Historical regulatory measures, such as environmental inspections and energy consumption controls, have significantly impacted supply dynamics in the chemical sector [8]. - **Investment Selection Criteria**: When selecting investment targets, focus on industries with historical collaboration, moderate scale, high concentration, low new capacity ratio, and advantageous production pathways to enhance investment returns [10].