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张瑜:五个关键判断——从投资视角极简解读政治局会议
一瑜中的· 2025-07-30 16:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the worst phase of economic circulation is likely passing, with a positive evaluation of the first half of the year and a focus on the preparation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][9] - Key indicators such as the growth rate of corporate deposits and the difference in year-on-year growth rates of household deposits are showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift from excessive saving to normal spending [2][9] - The political bureau's recent meetings reflect a shift from emphasizing external risks to focusing on domestic economic preparations and the effectiveness of existing policies [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the reliance on extraordinary policies is diminishing, with a focus on maximizing the effects of existing policies rather than introducing new ones [8][9] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, easing the difficulty of achieving the annual target of around 5% [9] - The upcoming months are critical for validating economic trends, particularly in the absence of extraordinary policies [9][10] Group 3 - The emphasis has shifted from total monetary easing to structural monetary policy, with a focus on supporting specific sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [12][14] - The current household deposits amount to 160 trillion, with a significant portion being excess savings, which influences monetary policy decisions [14] Group 4 - The political bureau's stance on capital markets has evolved from merely stabilizing to actively enhancing attractiveness and momentum [18][20] - The report notes a significant divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation favoring equities [20] Group 5 - The focus has shifted towards optimizing competitive order rather than administrative capacity reduction, with measures to combat unfair competition being emphasized [22][23] - The report outlines a three-phase approach to countering "involution," starting with controlling new projects and potentially leading to industry consolidation [24][26]