通稿提出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策。" 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一瑜中的 文：华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告正文 一、对外部形势判断或较为积极 通稿指出，"外部环境变化影响加深"，对比去年12月的"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深"、今年 4月的"外部冲击影响加大"，本次通稿并未强调外需的不利影响。从今年出口数据来看，1-11月，出口 保持了5.4%的增长，成为唯一一个通过反制"对等关税"赢得主动权的国家。展望明年，我们认为双重韧 性的支撑下（份额韧性+外需韧性），出口或继续保持高景气。 二、逆周期政策或从超常规转向常规 我们认为这一表述与7月政治局会议的表述相类似，"要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，充分释放政策效应"即，更强调存量政策发挥效果，而非继续强调使用增量超常规政策。 我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents five key judgments regarding the current economic situation in China, indicating that the worst period of economic circulation is likely over, and emphasizes a shift away from reliance on extraordinary policies and the loosest monetary policy phase [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Circulation - The worst period of economic circulation is likely passing, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year and leading indicators showing objective improvement [2][3]. - Key indicators of economic circulation include the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits, M1 growth, and various measures of household savings behavior, all of which have shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The reliance on extraordinary policy measures is diminishing, with a focus on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than new ones, as evidenced by a 8.9% increase in fiscal spending in the first half of the year [7][8]. - The potential for new incremental policies in the second half of the year is significantly reduced, with a focus on monitoring the release of household deposits and leading indicators [7][8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is likely coming to an end, as indicated by the current state of household deposits and the relationship between deposit behavior and monetary policy [9][12]. - The total household deposits have reached 160 trillion, with a significant portion being precautionary savings, suggesting a shift in monetary policy dynamics [9][12]. Group 4: Investment Landscape - The relative attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks is changing, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [12][14]. - The capital market's stability and attractiveness are being reinforced by policy interventions, which have reduced volatility and downside risks in the stock market [12][14]. Group 5: Competition and Market Dynamics - The current phase of intense competition driven by unfair practices is likely coming to an end, with ongoing efforts to regulate and optimize market competition [14][16]. - The government is focusing on enhancing market order and addressing issues related to unfair competition, which may positively impact economic circulation and pricing [16][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the worst phase of economic circulation is likely passing, with a positive evaluation of the first half of the year and a focus on the preparation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][9] - Key indicators such as the growth rate of corporate deposits and the difference in year-on-year growth rates of household deposits are showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift from excessive saving to normal spending [2][9] - The political bureau's recent meetings reflect a shift from emphasizing external risks to focusing on domestic economic preparations and the effectiveness of existing policies [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the reliance on extraordinary policies is diminishing, with a focus on maximizing the effects of existing policies rather than introducing new ones [8][9] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, easing the difficulty of achieving the annual target of around 5% [9] - The upcoming months are critical for validating economic trends, particularly in the absence of extraordinary policies [9][10] Group 3 - The emphasis has shifted from total monetary easing to structural monetary policy, with a focus on supporting specific sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [12][14] - The current household deposits amount to 160 trillion, with a significant portion being excess savings, which influences monetary policy decisions [14] Group 4 - The political bureau's stance on capital markets has evolved from merely stabilizing to actively enhancing attractiveness and momentum [18][20] - The report notes a significant divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation favoring equities [20] Group 5 - The focus has shifted towards optimizing competitive order rather than administrative capacity reduction, with measures to combat unfair competition being emphasized [22][23] - The report outlines a three-phase approach to countering "involution," starting with controlling new projects and potentially leading to industry consolidation [24][26]