Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between household deposits and the total market value of A-shares, suggesting that the current ratio indicates a moderate market without significant bubble risks [2][5]. Group 1: Market Value and Household Deposits - As of the end of July, the ratio of household deposits to A-share total market value is 1.71, which is considered moderate compared to the historical threshold of 1.1 [2][5]. - The total market value of A-shares was approximately 94 trillion yuan at the end of July and has since surpassed 100 trillion yuan [6]. - Household deposits have been increasing at a rate of about 14 trillion yuan annually, which supports the potential for more funds to flow into A-shares [8][10]. Group 2: Future Market Value Projections - If household deposits continue to grow, estimates suggest that in two years, total household deposits could reach around 180 trillion yuan, which could imply an A-share market value of approximately 163 trillion yuan under a 1.1 ratio [10][12]. - Under a more conservative scenario, if deposits reach 170 trillion yuan, the corresponding market value could be about 154 trillion yuan [10][12]. - The potential increase in A-share market value is estimated to be between 40% to 60% based on these projections [13][20]. Group 3: IPOs and Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the total market value can also increase through IPOs, which have been adding approximately 5 trillion yuan annually during bullish market conditions [15]. - Additionally, private placements (定增) contribute around 1 trillion yuan to the market value each year [16]. - The net increase in market value, after accounting for dividends and other factors, is estimated to be around 3.5 trillion yuan annually, leading to a conservative estimate of 5 trillion yuan increase per year [18][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term market fluctuations, referencing the experience formula by John Bogle [26][30]. - It suggests that investors should view market downturns as opportunities for long-term gains, as they can lead to higher dividend yields [31].