Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between household deposits and the total market capitalization of A-shares, suggesting that the current ratio indicates a moderate market without significant bubbles. As of the end of July, the ratio was 1.71, well below the critical threshold of 1.1 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Capitalization Projections - The article proposes that if the ratio reaches 1.1, the total market capitalization of A-shares could increase significantly, with potential growth estimates based on household deposits [5][10]. - Current total market capitalization of A-shares is approximately 100 trillion yuan, with projections suggesting it could rise to between 141.67 trillion and 163 trillion yuan depending on the growth of household deposits over the next one to two years [10][12]. - The potential increase in market capitalization is estimated to be between 40% to 60%, translating to a projected index level of 5032.8 to 5592 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [13][21]. Group 2: Household Deposits and Market Dynamics - Household deposits have been increasing at a rate of approximately 14 trillion yuan annually, which supports the potential for more funds to flow into A-shares [8][9]. - The article highlights that the increase in household deposits is a positive indicator for A-shares, as it provides the necessary liquidity for market growth [8][20]. - The analysis includes the impact of IPOs and private placements, which could add approximately 5 trillion yuan to the market capitalization annually, further supporting the growth projections [15][16]. Group 3: Dividend Considerations - The article notes that A-shares have increasingly focused on dividends, with annual cash dividends reaching around 2.5 trillion yuan, which will affect the total market capitalization [18]. - The net profit and cash dividend data from recent years indicate a stable dividend payout, which is crucial for long-term investment considerations [18][19]. - The net increase in market capitalization, after accounting for dividends, is estimated to be around 3.5 trillion yuan annually, suggesting a more conservative growth outlook [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between household deposits and the total market value of A-shares, suggesting that the current ratio indicates a moderate market without significant bubble risks [2][5]. Group 1: Market Value and Household Deposits - As of the end of July, the ratio of household deposits to A-share total market value is 1.71, which is considered moderate compared to the historical threshold of 1.1 [2][5]. - The total market value of A-shares was approximately 94 trillion yuan at the end of July and has since surpassed 100 trillion yuan [6]. - Household deposits have been increasing at a rate of about 14 trillion yuan annually, which supports the potential for more funds to flow into A-shares [8][10]. Group 2: Future Market Value Projections - If household deposits continue to grow, estimates suggest that in two years, total household deposits could reach around 180 trillion yuan, which could imply an A-share market value of approximately 163 trillion yuan under a 1.1 ratio [10][12]. - Under a more conservative scenario, if deposits reach 170 trillion yuan, the corresponding market value could be about 154 trillion yuan [10][12]. - The potential increase in A-share market value is estimated to be between 40% to 60% based on these projections [13][20]. Group 3: IPOs and Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the total market value can also increase through IPOs, which have been adding approximately 5 trillion yuan annually during bullish market conditions [15]. - Additionally, private placements (定增) contribute around 1 trillion yuan to the market value each year [16]. - The net increase in market value, after accounting for dividends and other factors, is estimated to be around 3.5 trillion yuan annually, leading to a conservative estimate of 5 trillion yuan increase per year [18][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term market fluctuations, referencing the experience formula by John Bogle [26][30]. - It suggests that investors should view market downturns as opportunities for long-term gains, as they can lead to higher dividend yields [31].