Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3731 to reach a ten-year high, is largely driven by the influx of incremental funds from residents moving their savings into the stock market [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a ten-year high of 3731, with trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [5]. - As of the end of July, the total market capitalization of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 94.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1 trillion yuan from the previous month [5]. Group 2: Resident Savings and Stock Market Correlation - Resident savings balance stood at 160.91 trillion yuan at the end of July, showing a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan from the previous month [5]. - The ratio of resident savings to total stock market capitalization is currently at 1.7, indicating a significant negative correlation between resident savings and stock market value [5]. - Historically, this ratio has ranged between 1.1 and 2.0, suggesting that the current high level of 1.7 indicates potential for further funds moving into the market [5]. Group 3: Drivers of Fund Movement - The initial signs of savings moving into the stock market were observed in June and July, driven by factors such as increased market risk appetite, alleviation of "asset scarcity," weakening of the US dollar leading to the return of overseas funds, and weak real investment [5]. - Potential funds that could enter the market from resident savings are estimated to be between 5 to 7 trillion yuan, which may exceed the amounts seen during previous market rallies in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 [5].

智通财经记者 | 陈靖 近期，A股市场表现强劲，牛市氛围愈发浓厚。 8月20日，A股市场延续强势表现，主要指数集体走高，其中沪指续创10年以来的新高。 截至收盘，上证指数上涨1.04%，报收3766.21点；深证成指涨幅为0.89%，收于11926.74点；创业板指小幅上涨0.23%， 收报2607.65点；科创50指数表现尤为亮眼，大涨3.23%，收报1148.15点。 从成交情况来看，沪深两市当日成交额达到24082亿元，较前一交易日缩量1801亿元。尽管成交量有所萎缩，但市场整 体做多氛围依然浓厚，指数的持续攀升彰显出当前市场的强劲势头。 与此同时，居民存款也加速流入股市。央行最新公布的金融数据显示，7月居民存款单月减少1.11万亿元，同比多降0.78 万亿元，与此同时，非银金融机构存款增加2.14万亿元，为2015年有数据记录以来同期最高水平，同比多增1.39万亿 元。 申万宏源策略团队告诉智通财经，"历来都没有脱离基本面的牛市，即使是14-15年牛市，背后也蕴含着'互联网产业趋 势日新月异、自上而下改革预期强烈'的基本面趋势。存款搬家真正的传导链条，应该是'基本面预期改善→ 股市赚钱效 应初步累积→ ...