Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views of the Report - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium emphasizes the priority of the employment target, suggesting that as long as the August US CPI does not show an expanding trend, the conditions for a September rate cut could be met. The report maintains the view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, with more cuts likely if the unemployment rate rises further [3]. - The long - term Treasury yield is closely related to the growth rate of household loans, and the slowdown in personal housing loan growth is the main factor dragging down the slowdown of household loan growth. The rebound of long - term bond interest rates at this stage may be mainly due to expectations and the transfer of funds caused by the strong performance of the stock market recently. Unless there is an unexpected real - estate support policy, the subsequent recovery process of long - term bond yields should be relatively slow [3]. - The year - on - year decline of the producer price index for means of production continues to narrow. From August 18th to 23rd, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.41% week - on - week and 27.31% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 3.56% week - on - week and decreased by 24.63% year - on - year [3]. - From August 1st to 20th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 185,000 square meters per day, while in August 2024, the average daily trading area in 30 cities was about 232,000 square meters per day [3]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The long - term Treasury yield is closely related to the growth rate of household loans, and the slowdown in personal housing loan growth is the main factor dragging down the slowdown of household loan growth. Recently, the real estate market has stabilized, and the decline in the area of commercial residential buildings has converged, and the downward trend of new mortgage rates has also slowed down. The willingness of commercial banks to further reduce mortgage rates is not strong, and it is more difficult to lower the yield requirements for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [3][12]. - The ratio of household loans to GDP in China has recently stabilized, indicating that the household sector's leverage ratio has stabilized. If the capacity management of key industries on the supply side and demand - side support policies can promote the recovery of nominal GDP growth, the growth rate of household loans may have room to rebound, which will pose a risk of rising long - term bond interest rates [3][14]. - The rebound of the real estate market and the growth rate of household loans is not significant. The rebound of long - term bond interest rates at this stage may be mainly due to expectations and the transfer of funds caused by the strong performance of the stock market recently. The comparison effect also restricts the rebound of long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rates. Unless there is an unexpected real - estate support policy, the subsequent recovery process of long - term bond yields should be relatively slow [3][18]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data are compared with important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, social retail sales, export volume, etc., including LME copper spot price, crude steel daily output, production material price index, etc. [23][33][41] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, such as the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [91][93][96] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of various high - frequency data are shown, including the daily output of crude steel, production material price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, etc. [104][112][121] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are presented [165][168]