Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views of the Report - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium emphasizes the priority of the employment target, suggesting that as long as the August US CPI does not show an expanding trend, the conditions for a September rate cut could be met. The report maintains the view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, with more cuts likely if the unemployment rate rises further [3]. - The long - term Treasury yield is closely related to the growth rate of household loans, and the slowdown in personal housing loan growth is the main factor dragging down the slowdown of household loan growth. The rebound of long - term bond interest rates at this stage may be mainly due to expectations and the transfer of funds caused by the strong performance of the stock market recently. Unless there is an unexpected real - estate support policy, the subsequent recovery process of long - term bond yields should be relatively slow [3]. - The year - on - year decline of the producer price index for means of production continues to narrow. From August 18th to 23rd, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.41% week - on - week and 27.31% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 3.56% week - on - week and decreased by 24.63% year - on - year [3]. - From August 1st to 20th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 185,000 square meters per day, while in August 2024, the average daily trading area in 30 cities was about 232,000 square meters per day [3]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The long - term Treasury yield is closely related to the growth rate of household loans, and the slowdown in personal housing loan growth is the main factor dragging down the slowdown of household loan growth. Recently, the real estate market has stabilized, and the decline in the area of commercial residential buildings has converged, and the downward trend of new mortgage rates has also slowed down. The willingness of commercial banks to further reduce mortgage rates is not strong, and it is more difficult to lower the yield requirements for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [3][12]. - The ratio of household loans to GDP in China has recently stabilized, indicating that the household sector's leverage ratio has stabilized. If the capacity management of key industries on the supply side and demand - side support policies can promote the recovery of nominal GDP growth, the growth rate of household loans may have room to rebound, which will pose a risk of rising long - term bond interest rates [3][14]. - The rebound of the real estate market and the growth rate of household loans is not significant. The rebound of long - term bond interest rates at this stage may be mainly due to expectations and the transfer of funds caused by the strong performance of the stock market recently. The comparison effect also restricts the rebound of long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rates. Unless there is an unexpected real - estate support policy, the subsequent recovery process of long - term bond yields should be relatively slow [3][18]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data are compared with important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, social retail sales, export volume, etc., including LME copper spot price, crude steel daily output, production material price index, etc. [23][33][41] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, such as the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [91][93][96] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of various high - frequency data are shown, including the daily output of crude steel, production material price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, etc. [104][112][121] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are presented [165][168]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic household RMB loans dropped to 2.65%, and the growth rate of household medium - and long - term loans also fell to 3.43%. From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 1.60%, about 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The long - term Treasury bond yield continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of more real - estate support policies [2][10]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% (the highest level since February this year) and a month - on - month increase of 0.9% (the largest increase since June 2022). The follow - up pressure transmission needs attention. The Fed's scenario of more than 2 interest rate cuts this year still requires the decline of inflation data as support [2][12]. - The year - on - year decline of the production material price index continued to narrow. From August 11th to 15th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.17% month - on - month and 25.69% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 7.22% month - on - month and decreased by 26.99% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline of the production material price index narrowed to 5.29% [2]. - From August 1st to 14th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 181,000 square meters, while in August 2024, it was about 232,000 square meters per day [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - In July, the growth of domestic household loans and fixed - asset investment slowed down. The long - term Treasury bond yield should have faced downward pressure but continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of real - estate support policies. The new - issued mortgage rate in the second quarter decreased again, and the adjusted new - issued mortgage rate after tax and capital cost continued to decline, but the trend slowed down [2][10][11]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations. If the upstream price - increase pressure can be transmitted to consumer prices, it may form re - inflation pressure; otherwise, it may affect corporate inventory investment [2][12]. - Various high - frequency data showed different trends. For example, food prices, consumer goods prices, energy prices, and real - estate transaction data all had their own changes in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [15][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data were compared with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the comparison between the year - on - year change of LME copper spot settlement price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the comparison between the year - on - year change of crude steel daily output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [17][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Some important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe were presented, including the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied interest - rate hike/cut prospects of the US Federal Funds Futures and the ECB's overnight index swaps [92][94][103]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data were analyzed, with indicators such as the monthly average of crude steel daily output and the production material price index showing their respective seasonal changes [105]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were presented [160].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call pertains to the financial sector in China, specifically focusing on monetary policy and its implications for various industries, including real estate and stock markets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Unusual Timing and Leadership**: The meeting was held at 9 AM, which is rare, and the use of "responsible person" instead of "relevant responsible person" suggests the presence of top leadership [1][2]. 2. **Previous Policy Context**: The last meeting of this significance occurred on September 24, 2024, which resulted in major policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and measures to stabilize the stock market [1][2]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: The meeting follows the release of April's PMI, indicating early signs of economic weakness, suggesting that comprehensive policies will be introduced [1][2]. 4. **Expected Policy Actions**: - A reserve requirement ratio cut is anticipated, while interest rate cuts are uncertain, with a previous survey indicating that the priority is on reserve cuts [2]. - The net interest margin for banks is under pressure, potentially falling below 1.35%, indicating that any interest rate cut would likely be limited to around 10 basis points [2]. 5. **New Financial Tools**: The meeting is expected to introduce details on new policy financial tools aimed at supporting infrastructure or industrial investments, which could boost fixed asset investment growth [2]. 6. **Consumer and Elderly Support Measures**: The central bank is likely to announce measures related to service consumption and elderly care refinancing, although the macroeconomic impact is expected to be limited [2]. 7. **Real Estate Support Policies**: Additional support for the real estate sector is anticipated, but the scale will not be as significant as previous measures. The market for second-hand homes remains relatively strong, and there may be further easing of purchase restrictions, though the impact is expected to be minimal [3]. 8. **Stock Market Stability**: Policies to stabilize the stock market will likely be reiterated, as recent measures have been effective in maintaining investor confidence, with minimal market volatility observed [3]. Other Important Insights - The shift in language regarding real estate from "stop decline and stabilize" to "consolidate stability" indicates a cautious approach to the sector's recovery [3]. - The overall sentiment suggests a focus on maintaining economic stability while cautiously introducing new measures to support growth in key sectors [2][3].