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牧原股份(002714)2025年一季报点评:量增成本降 龙头业绩稳步兑现
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 00:36
Core Viewpoint - The company is continuously improving its pig farming operations, leading to a decrease in breeding costs, while the slaughtering business has significantly increased its capacity utilization and profitability, driving high-quality development [1]. Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating with a target price of 50.8 yuan. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.54, 4.81, and 6.77 yuan respectively. The company's pig output continues to grow, and the profitability of the slaughtering business is improving. Compared to peers, the company remains a leader in the industry, combining growth and value attributes, with a 20x valuation for 2025 corresponding to the target price of 50.8 yuan [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 36.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.49 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses. The net cash flow from operating activities was 7.51 billion yuan, up 48.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a pig output of 22.658 million heads in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.5%, with 18.395 million commodity pigs, 4.149 million piglets, and 113,000 breeding pigs [2]. Cost Management - The complete cost of pig farming in March 2025 has decreased to 12.5 yuan/kg, showing continuous optimization. The company is expected to enhance production indicators through health management and breeding improvements, while promoting excellent farm management practices to further reduce breeding costs [2]. Slaughtering Business Performance - The company slaughtered 5.32 million pigs in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 81%. The slaughtering capacity utilization rate improved significantly from 40% in Q1 2024 to 73% in Q1 2025. The company plans to further expand the market, strengthen channel construction, and optimize customer and product structures to enhance profitability [3].