中国氨基酸与饲料原料应用研讨会 据博亚和讯监测，2026年2月26日全国外三元生猪均价为10.81元/kg，较昨日上涨0.06元/kg；仔猪均价 为25.42元/kg，较昨日下跌0.01元/kg；白条肉均价15.10元/kg，较昨日下跌0.15元/kg；今日猪料比为 3.24:1，较昨日增加0.02。 今日猪价震荡调整，全国均价微涨0.06元/kg。近期猪价持续下行，刺激散户抄底二次育肥行为增加， 同时前期下跌导致自繁自养亏损加剧，外购养殖仅维持微利，部分规模场选择缩量挺价、散户扛价情绪 升温，共同推动猪价企稳。短期来看，在情绪与二育入场支撑下，猪价下跌空间有限，预计将保持低位 震荡，同时南北价差将逐步收窄。今日市场情绪看稳、看涨并存，预计明日猪价稳中偏强调整，关注近 期二育入场情况。 会议聚焦 来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） | 神区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026年 | 2月25日 | 2月26日 | 趋势 | ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2026年1月，包括牧原股份、温氏股份等在内的18家样本猪 企合计生猪出栏量1802.15万头，同比增长12.54%，环比25年12月减少11.15%；出栏均重方面，包括牧 原股份、温氏股份等在内的9家样本猪企商品猪平均体重为123.71公斤。行业层面，截至2月12日，根据 涌益咨询监测，自繁自养企业销售商品猪利润为-52.94元/头，自去年底以来再度转亏，销售仔猪头均利 润为75元/头，为连续第5周盈利。 华创证券主要观点如下： 出栏量：1月18家样本猪企合计出栏量同比增长12.54%，环比减少11.15% 1月包括牧原股份、温氏股份等在内的18家样本猪企合计生猪出栏量1802.15万头，同比增长12.54%，环 比25年12月减少11.15%。其中，出栏量前5名分别为牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望、德康农牧、正邦科 技，出栏量分别为700.90万头、338.42万头、139.82万头、104.24万头、92.75万头，出栏量同比增速前5 名分别为京基智农、东瑞股份、正邦科技、金新农、巨星农牧，增速分别为79.87%、78.31%、 62.32%、60.56%、59.40 ...

（来源：大佑农饲料） 市场的"寒冬"却似乎还在延续。2026年开年，生猪市场就扔下了一枚"深水炸弹"：能繁母猪偷偷在涨， 而生猪存栏却在下降，这种"存栏分化"的怪象，直接为2-3月的猪价埋下了伏笔。 面对即将到来的"断崖式"挑战，猪价是深不见底的下跌，还是绝处逢生的反弹？本文结合卓创资讯等机 构的最新数据，为你独家揭秘未来两个月的猪价路线图。 一、 1月"异象"：母猪增，生猪减，市场在憋什么大招？ 刚过去的1月，养殖端的数据出现了罕见的背离，这不仅是数字的游戏，更是市场情绪的直观反映。 1. 能繁母猪：竟然还涨了0.38%！按理说，在大家都亏损的时候，应该淘汰母猪过冬才对。但监测数据 显示，1月能繁母猪存栏环比微增。这背后的推手有两个： · 仔猪涨价了：7公斤仔猪价格冲到了291.96元/头，环比暴涨34%。看到卖仔猪能赚钱，养殖户补栏的积 极性一下子就上来了。 来源：市场资讯 如果说存栏数据是内因，那春节消费就是最大的外因。但2026年的春节，这个外因彻底"哑火"了。 往年这时候，屠宰场应该是热火朝天抢猪备货，但今年却冷清得可怕。数据显示，截至2月9日，样本企 业生猪屠宰量累计增幅仅35.29%，远低于往年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][45] Core Viewpoints - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies increased by 12.54% year-on-year but decreased by 11.15% month-on-month, totaling 18.02 million heads [6][9] - The average selling price of commercial pigs for 15 sample pig companies in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 19.30% but an increase of 8.83% month-on-month [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in January was 121.41 kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17] - The industry is experiencing a return to losses in breeding profits before the festival, with the average weight of pigs still at historically high levels [19][20] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, with sufficient safety margins, and the cost advantages of leading companies like Muyuan are expected to expand [34][35] Summary by Sections Slaughter Volume - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies was 18.02 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 12.54% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.15% [6][9][11] Selling Price - The average selling price of commercial pigs in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 19.30% year-on-year but up 8.83% month-on-month [13][14][16] Average Weight - The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 121.41 kg in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17][19] Industry Overview - The industry is facing a return to losses in breeding profits, with the average weight of pigs remaining high historically [19][20][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a forward-looking layout at the bottom, emphasizing efficiency over growth and quality over scale, with a focus on companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong [33][34][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the price trends of major pig products and feeds in the national and selected provincial markets in January 2026, including price changes compared to the previous month and the same period last year, as well as historical data comparisons over the past few years and price fluctuations in the past 13 months [12][18][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Pig Products Market Prices 3.1.1 Piglets - In January 2026, the national average price was 24.99 yuan/kg, up 6.84% month - on - month and down 26.44% year - on - year. The 2022 - 2026 January average was 28.90 yuan/kg, with a peak in January 2023 (34.86 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2024 (23.22 yuan/kg) [12]. - From January 2025 to January 2026, the price fluctuated from 33.97 yuan/kg to 24.99 yuan/kg, with the peak in April 2025 (39.16 yuan/kg) and the trough in December 2025 (23.39 yuan/kg) [13]. - In the 7 provincial markets, the price ranged from 22.96 to 28.16 yuan/kg, with Guizhou having a relatively low price and Guangdong a relatively high one [16]. 3.1.2 Live Pigs - In January 2026, the national average price was 13.07 yuan/kg, up 7.40% month - on - month and down 21.31% year - on - year. The 2022 - 2026 January average was 15.42 yuan/kg, with a peak in January 2025 (16.61 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2026 (13.07 yuan/kg) [18]. - From January 2025 to January 2026, the price fluctuated from 16.61 yuan/kg to 13.07 yuan/kg, with the peak in January 2025 (16.61 yuan/kg) and the trough in December 2025 (12.17 yuan/kg) [21]. - In the 7 provincial markets, the price ranged from 12.25 to 14.03 yuan/kg, with Guangxi having a relatively low price and Guizhou a relatively high one [22]. 3.1.3 Pork - In January 2026, the national average price was 23.28 yuan/kg, up 3.05% month - on - month and down 16.53% year - on - year. The 2022 - 2026 January average was 26.61 yuan/kg, with a peak in January 2023 (29.8 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2026 (23.28 yuan/kg) [26]. - From January 2025 to January 2026, the price fluctuated from 27.89 yuan/kg to 23.28 yuan/kg, with the peak in January 2025 (27.89 yuan/kg) and the trough in December 2025 (22.59 yuan/kg) [28]. - In the 7 provincial markets, the price ranged from 22.5 to 25.76 yuan/kg, with Guangxi having a relatively low price and Yunnan a relatively high one [32]. 3.2 Main Pig Feed Market Prices 3.2.1 Fattening Pig Compound Feed - In January 2026, the national average price was 3.36 yuan/kg, basically flat month - on - month and up 0.60% year - on - year. The 2022 - 2026 January average was 3.63 yuan/kg, with a peak in January 2023 (4.05 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2025 (3.34 yuan/kg) [34]. - From January 2025 to January 2026, the price fluctuated from 3.34 yuan/kg to 3.36 yuan/kg, with peaks in March and May 2025 (3.42 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2025 (3.34 yuan/kg) [37]. - In the 7 provincial markets, the price ranged from 3.38 to 3.94 yuan/kg, with Guangdong having a relatively low price and Yunnan a relatively high one [39]. 3.2.2 Corn - In January 2026, the national average price was 2.44 yuan/kg, up 0.41% month - on - month and up 7.02% year - on - year. The 2022 - 2026 January average was 2.67 yuan/kg, with a peak in January 2023 (3.04 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2025 (2.28 yuan/kg) [42]. - From January 2025 to January 2026, the price fluctuated from 2.28 yuan/kg to 2.44 yuan/kg, with peaks in July and August 2025 (2.5 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2025 (2.28 yuan/kg) [43]. - In the 7 provincial markets, the price ranged from 2.51 to 2.61 yuan/kg, with Guangdong having a relatively low price and Hunan a relatively high one [46]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - In January 2026, the national average price was 3.33 yuan/kg, up 0.91% month - on - month and up 1.83% year - on - year. The 2022 - 2026 January average was 3.91 yuan/kg, with a peak in January 2023 (4.99 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2025 (3.27 yuan/kg) [48]. - From January 2025 to January 2026, the price fluctuated from 3.27 yuan/kg to 3.33 yuan/kg, with a peak in March 2025 (3.7 yuan/kg) and troughs in January and October 2025 (3.27 yuan/kg) [51]. - In the 7 provincial markets, the price ranged from 3.18 to 3.48 yuan/kg, with Guangdong and Chongqing having prices below the national average, and the other 5 provinces having prices above it [53]. 3.2.4 Wheat Bran - In January 2026, the national average price was 2.05 yuan/kg, up 0.99% month - on - month and up 4.06% year - on - year. The 2022 - 2026 January average was 2.24 yuan/kg, with a peak in January 2023 (2.67 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2025 (1.97 yuan/kg) [56]. - From January 2025 to January 2026, the price fluctuated from 1.97 yuan/kg to 2.05 yuan/kg, with peaks in July and August 2025 (2.06 yuan/kg) and a trough in January 2025 (1.97 yuan/kg) [57]. - In the 7 provincial markets, the price ranged from 2.02 to 2.36 yuan/kg, with Guangdong having a relatively low price and Yunnan a relatively high one [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the live hog price fluctuated and closed down, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of live hogs are both weak in the initial stage. The price fluctuation range may be relatively limited. Considering that the supply will gradually recover in the future, the loose supply and demand will put pressure on the price. It is expected that the live hog price will fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The live hog price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - **Market Outlook**: After the festival, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end will gradually resume. The short - term supply pressure is limited. The supply in the next two months is relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening market. The demand turns from strong to weak after the festival. Overall, the supply and demand are weak at the beginning after the festival, and the live hog price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [12]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live hog futures decreased by 884 lots compared with last week, and the number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1027, an increase of 300 lots compared with the previous week [18]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts is - 720, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts is - 1640 [23]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the live hog March contract this week was 1660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the May contract was 900 yuan/ton [28]. - **Live Hog and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live hogs this week was 11.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.88 yuan/kg compared with last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 29.24 yuan/kg, the same as last week [38]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: On February 12, the national average market price of pork was 18.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg compared with the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [44]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of February 4, 2026, the pig - grain ratio was 5.68, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the previous week [48]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In December 2025, the official inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million. According to Mysteel data, in January 2026, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.02% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [50][54]. - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month and a 0.5% increase year - on - year. In January 2026, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.02% month - on - month [56][59]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In January 2026, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 3.27% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.71% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live hogs this week was 122.89 kg, a decrease of 0.37 kg compared with last week [61][64]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding Profits**: As of February 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 53.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 38.32 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was - 98.32 yuan/head, a decrease of 60.23 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.09 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/hen week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.84 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.05 yuan/chicken week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3. Other Industry Aspects - **Pork Imports**: In December 2025, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, the imports were 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [75]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of February 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 14 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of February 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 1.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with last week [79]. - **Feed Situation**: As of February 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 3167.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.73 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's live hog feed cost index was 924.22, and the average market price of live hog feed was 2.67 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons month - on - month. In January 2026, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.19% month - on - month and increased by 0.92% year - on - year [86][90][96]. - **CPI**: As of January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [102]. 3.3.4. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 7th week of 2026, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 45.97%, an increase of 7.48 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 25.56 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - sales ratio of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 88.55%, an increase of 0.37% compared with last week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.00%, the same as last week [106]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of December 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 48.91 million, an increase of 17.52% month - on - month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [112]. 3.3.5. Live Hog - related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis of the stocks is provided [114][116]

Core Viewpoint - Shennong Group (605296.SH) reported significant growth in its pig sales for January 2026, indicating a strong performance in the livestock sector [1] Sales Performance - The company sold 295,300 commodity pigs in January 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.24% [1] - Sales revenue from commodity pigs reached 461 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.06% [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 12.03 yuan per kilogram, with a month-on-month increase of 8.57% [1] Additional Sales Data - In January 2026, the company also sold 10,200 piglets [1]

证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2026-006 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 2026 年 1 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2026 年 1 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2026 年 1 月养殖业务主要经营数据 1、2026 年 1 月份，公司销售商品猪 29.53 万头，同比变动 53.24%（其中： 向集团内部屠宰企业销售商品猪 4.92 万头）。商品猪销售收入 4.61 亿元，同比 变动 28.06%。商品猪销售均价 12.03 元/公斤，环比变动 8.57%。 2、2026 年 1 月，公司销售仔猪 1.02 万头。 上述销售数据未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异，因此上 述数据仅作为阶段性数据供投资者参考。 二、风险提示 （一）公司目前主营业务包括饲料加工、生猪养殖、生猪屠宰、肉制品深加工等 业务，上述销售情况只代表公司生猪养殖板块中活体销售情况，饲料加工、生猪 ...

当前自繁自养成本约 12 元/斤，放养公司代养成本约 6.2-6.3 元/斤，头 部企业断奶仔猪成本约 5.75 元/斤，行业平均水平 6-6.5 元/斤。高于此 水平则不建议继续从事该行业。 Q&A 春节前后生猪价格走势如何？有哪些因素影响了这一变化？ 春节前后的生猪价格走势呈现出较为复杂的波动趋势。根据我们的监测数据， 1 月份的均价预估为 13 元，但实际监测到的数据为 12.8 元。整个价格走势在 10 月中旬触底后，经历了多次波动，到 1 月中下旬达到高点 13.2 元。然而， 到目前（腊月十八），价格又回落至 12 元左右，有些公司统计的数据甚至跌 破了 12 元。 春节前后，市场供需关系对价格产生了显著影响。从供给端来看， 春节前屠宰量逐步增加，但整体需求并未如预期般强劲。例如，冬至当天屠宰 量达到 32.4 万头，而腊八时也仅恢复到 30 万头左右，并未突破冬至的屠宰量。 这表明尽管有季节性需求高峰，但整体消费并不如预期理想。 从需求端来看， 根据官方数据，2025 年家庭人均猪肉消费较 2024 年下降了 5%以上，这反映 出经济环境对消费能力的抑制。此外，餐饮业表现不佳，也进一步压制了猪肉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in near-month contracts is attributed to weakening spot prices, with a notable trend of backwardation in the market [3][19]. Group 1: Market Trends - The spot price of live pigs initially rose to 13.30 yuan/kg in January due to holiday stocking and adverse weather, but has since come under pressure as supply increases ahead of the Spring Festival [3][19]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, pig farming enterprises are increasing their market supply to mitigate holiday risks, leading to a rise in supply pressure [3][19]. - The average weight of pigs being sold is currently high, and the reduction in weight before the holiday is less than expected, exceeding the capacity to meet holiday demand [3][19]. Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The demand for frozen products remains relatively stable, with a decline in utilization rates across various regions; northern markets have seen a decrease of around 10%, while southern markets show a varied decline between 2-11% [3][19]. - Frozen product inventories are continuously decreasing, although overall levels are higher than at the end of the previous year [3][19]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The supply of newborn piglets is expected to peak around May 2026, with a continuous improvement in supply anticipated in Q3 2026, indicating a strong backwardation pricing trend for the year [4][20]. - The effects of capacity reduction are expected to gradually manifest in the second half of 2026, with expectations for spot prices to recover around May [4][20]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - The high basis of near-month contract 2603 continues, with the futures market showing a persistent downward trend, indicating a significant divergence between futures and spot prices [5][21]. - There is a need to monitor the risk of a significant decline in spot prices after the holiday, while short-term backwardation strategies are supported by fundamentals [5][21]. - Attention should be given to the reduction of breeding sows and potential low-position buying opportunities in the far-month contracts 2609 and 2611 as the market stabilizes [5][21].