4、禽板块：白鸡&蛋鸡重视引种缺口；黄鸡重视消费需求边际改善！1）重视白鸡基本面，关注引种边际变化！ ①祖代鸡引种不确定性犹存。考虑到2015 年法国因禽流感封关后，我国已有近10 年未从法国引种，叠加现阶段全 球禽流感及美国关税预期，我们预计今年祖代鸡更新将呈现总量下降及品种结构变化。②本周鸡苗价格稳定、毛鸡 价格小幅震荡。③投资建议：行业磨底已持续 3年，产能收缩意愿增加；当前海外引种持续受扰动，重视引种数量 和结构变化，前瞻布局行情景气反转；建议重视自主育种崛起机会以及掌握引种替代资源的白羽鸡龙头。首推【圣 农发展】，建议关注【益生股份】、【民和股份】、【禾丰股份】、【仙坛股份】等。2）黄鸡：供给或现收缩，核 心变量在需求。①产能处于较低区间，但仍在 2018 年以来的较低区间。②台风过境未阻涨价势头，续养及消费渠 道增量明显，其中快、中、慢速类全国均价分别为5.42元/斤、6.34元/斤、7.62元/斤，环比+0.3/ +0.3/ +0.36 元/ 斤（8 月11 日-8 月17 日）。③投资建议：价格筑底或已完成，需求边际改善有望带动价格触底回升。随着黄鸡消 费下半年高于上半年的特性，我们认为黄羽鸡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side in August shows an increase in the slaughter plan of the breeding end compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. However, as prices fall, some farms may be inclined to hold out for higher prices, and the entry of second - round fattening has increased, which will slow down the slaughter rhythm. Additionally, the current price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later pressure on stocks [6]. - On the demand side, the state will conduct central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient pig supply and improved demand in some areas, the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. It is expected that demand will improve with the start of school and subsequent double - festival stocking [6]. - Overall, although the slaughter pressure in August restrains the performance of spot prices, the state's reserve purchases boost market confidence, and the upcoming start of school brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate slightly stronger within a range. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, set stop - losses, and take profits opportunistically [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The hog price declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.75% on a weekly basis [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is relatively loose in August, but factors such as farms' price - holding intentions, increased second - round fattening, and a widened fat - standard price difference will affect the supply rhythm. Demand is expected to improve due to state reserve purchases, the start of school, and double - festival stocking. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger within a range [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.75% week - on - week. As of August 22, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1654 lots compared to last week, and the number of futures warrants was 430, unchanged from last week [10][16]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the September contract was - 160 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was - 240 yuan/ton this week [20]. - The national average hog price was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from last week but down 2.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.72 yuan/kg, down 2.35 yuan from last week and 15.18% from the same period last month [27]. - The national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg in the week of August 7, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - As of August 13, the hog - grain ratio was 5.94, down 0.08 from the previous week, remaining below 6:1 [36]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - In the second quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and in July, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data. In July, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - In July, the slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight increased. The slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms was 10436200 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08% but a year - on - year increase of 18.60%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480600 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% but a year - on - year increase of 57.67%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 123.38 kg, an increase of 0.15 kg from last week [49]. - **Industry Profit**: - As of August 22, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 151.8 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 5.25 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 33.95 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.15 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.01 yuan/head [54]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's pork imports were 90000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative pork imports were 630000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [59]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of August 22, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, the same as last week [64]. - **Feed Situation**: - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3084.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2373.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.59 yuan/ton from the previous week [69]. - As of August 22, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 906.49, a decrease of 2.19% from last week, and the price of finishing hog compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [72]. - As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [77]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [81]. - **Downstream**: - In the 34th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 28.71%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points from last week, and the domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week [84]. - As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30060000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 6.53%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [89]. - **Hog - related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data analysis is provided [90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The company continues to lead in breeding costs, with significant cash flow improvements and a declining debt-to-asset ratio. The dividend payout ratio has notably increased, reflecting the company's value [1][7] - In the context of supply-side reforms and production capacity adjustments, the company is expected to benefit from its low-cost advantage, particularly in the face of industry challenges [7][1] - The company achieved a revenue of 76.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, and a net profit of 10.5 billion yuan, up 1170% year-on-year [7][19] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 110.861 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -11%, followed by a 24% increase in 2024 [19][20] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 21.074 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.0 [19][20] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to reach 38.235 billion yuan in 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency [18][20] Performance Metrics - The company’s breeding costs have significantly improved, with the estimated cost of live pigs dropping from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11.8 yuan/kg by July [7][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5 billion yuan, which represents 48% of its net profit [7][19] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 26.0% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [20][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant financial performance of Muyuan Foods, a leading pig farming company in China, showcasing a remarkable recovery in profits and a strategic focus on cost reduction and production capacity management [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Muyuan Foods reported a 34% increase in revenue, with net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of over 1100% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's net profit reached 10.53 billion yuan, with a profit margin increase of 10.59 percentage points, bringing the gross margin to 18.72% [6][7]. - The significant profit growth is attributed to a low profit base from the previous year and a notable decrease in production costs, which fell from 14 yuan/kg to 11.8 yuan/kg [6][7]. Sales and Production - Muyuan Foods sold 38.39 million pigs in the first half of the year, generating sales revenue of 70.87 billion yuan, with a notable increase in the sale of piglets, which rose by 168% [7]. - The company aims to reduce average production costs to 12 yuan/kg for the year, with a target of 11 yuan/kg by year-end, indicating potential for further profit growth [7][8]. Industry Trends - The chairman of Muyuan Foods stated that the pig farming industry in China is transitioning towards quality improvement, moving from quantity to quality [8][9]. - The company is actively managing production capacity, planning to reduce the number of breeding sows to 3.3 million by the end of the year, which is a more significant reduction than the national target [11][12]. Capacity Management - Muyuan Foods has implemented measures to control production capacity, including reducing the weight of pigs at slaughter to alleviate supply pressure [12][13]. - The company has ceased selling pigs for secondary fattening, ensuring that all pigs are directed to slaughterhouses, which is expected to stabilize market prices [12][13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Spot prices are generally stable, with an increase in both the number of second - fattened pigs for sale and sales volume. Piglet prices are expected to be weak in the short term. The effect of reducing the weight of live pigs is not obvious, there is still spot pressure, and the process of destocking takes time. Futures show an overall oscillating trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price - On August 20, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 13.53 yuan/kg, up 0.13 yuan/kg. The prices in different regions ranged from 13.27 yuan/kg (Jilin) to 15.16 yuan/kg (Guangdong), with price changes in each region from 0 to 0.23 yuan/kg [3] Futures Price - On August 20, 2025, LH2509 was 13715 yuan, down 65 yuan; LH2511 was 13775 yuan, down 125 yuan; LH2601 was 14110 yuan, down 90 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 60 yuan (up 60 yuan), and the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 335 yuan (down 35 yuan) [3] Supply and Demand - According to Yongyi data, pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The average slaughter weight this week was 127.82 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week (a month - on - month increase of 0.02%) and 1.65 kg higher than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.31%) [3] Piglet Market - This week, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 484 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from last week. Due to the difficulty of the current batch of piglets to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival, farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment has decreased, and piglet prices have started a downward trend [3]

猪价波动风险；动物疫病风险；原材料价格波动风险。 出栏量稳健增长，屠宰利用率大幅提升：2025H1实现出栏4691万头，同比+45%；其中商品猪3839万头，同比+32%，销售仔猪829.1万头，同比+168%；种猪22.5万头，同比-27.9%；公司生 养殖成本稳步下降，积极实现高质量发展：公司积极实现高质量发展，截至6月末公司能繁母猪存栏343.1万头，环比减少5.4万头，预计年底下降至330万头，公司积极响应国家号召控制产能 公司经营稳健，分红彰显信心：公司盈利端表现优秀，随着公司业绩的持续兑现，公司负债情况有所好转，截至25Q2末资产负债率为56.06%，较24年底下降2.62pct，财务指标持续好转。公 公司作为行业龙头企业，养殖成本行业领先，管理指标持续优化，业绩兑现能力优秀，在产能调控的大背景下公司业绩有望稳健提升。此外，随着公司经营质量的提升和资本开支的减少，公司未 风险提示 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 公司披露2025年中报，25H1实现营收764.6亿元，同比+34.5%；实现归母净利润105.3亿元，同比+1169.7%。25Q2实现营业收入 ...

牧原股份 2025 年上半年营收 51 亿元，同比增长 12.13%，资产负债 率降至 56.06%，较一季度末下降 3.14 个百分点，降负债目标已完成 过半，总额相较于年初下降了 56 亿元。公司计划年底前将能繁母猪减 少到 330 万头，比二季度减少 13 万头；出栏均重降低至 120 公斤，并 预计本月底完成这一目标。 上半年生猪销售 4,694 万头，其中商品猪 3,839.4 万头。通过技术创新 和管理优化，7 月生猪养殖完全成本降至约 11.8 元/公斤，目标是全年 平均 12 元/公斤。公司将加强猪肉品质管理，根据消费者需求开展种猪 育种及生产管理，以提升产品售价。 屠宰生猪 1,141.48 万头，同比增长超过 110.87%，产能利用率提升至 78.72%。尽管亏损约 1 亿元，但同比大幅减亏。公司将提升客户服务 和内部运营能力，推进产品升级和客户结构优化，以提高屠宰肉食业务 盈利水平。 公司公布半年度利润分配方案，每 10 股派发现金红利 9.32 元，总额 50.02 亿元，占半年度归母净利润的 47.5%，高于之前承诺的 40%以 上，这意味着未来可能会考虑更多地回报股东，将其放在更 ...

生猪养殖月度跟踪：7 月猪价冲高回落，关注产能去化 20250819 摘要 近期生猪行业的整体情况如何？ 近期生猪行业处于价格探底阶段，猪价创下约一年半以来的新低。这一现象主 要由于被动去产能、政策引导下的持续减产能及环保政策收紧等因素所致。7 月份，仔猪、活猪和猪肉的均价分别为 35.7 元/公斤、34.91 元/公斤和 25.37 元/公斤，同比下降 18.65%、20.05%和 12.8%。环比来看，仔猪价格下降 4.09%，活猪和猪肉价格则分别小幅上涨 1.72%和 0.31%。截至 8 月上旬， 生猪出栏均价回落至 13.82 元/公斤，并在最近一周进一步回落。 截至 2025 年 8 月 8 日，自繁自养生猪头均盈利 45.13 元，外购仔猪持 续亏损，每头亏损 134.14 元，表明自繁自养模式维持小幅盈利，而外 购仔猪亏损进一步扩大。 2025 年 7 月牧原、温氏、新希望、正邦等主要生猪养殖企业出栏量环 比变动分别为-10.4%、5.24%、2.07%、-2.16%，17 家上市企业合 计出栏 1,581 万头，环比下滑 5.3%，但正邦和东瑞销量同比翻倍。 2025 年 7 月牧原、温氏、 ...

2025 年 8 月 19 日 品 研 究 | 生猪：现货弱势延续 | | --- | 8 月集团计划出栏量增加，散户存在被动压栏，需求增幅有限，市场压力较大，近期日度成交均偏 差，难以消化市场供应，周末现货表现再度不及预期，抢跑抛售情绪存在，9 月合约仍升水仓单成本，产 业交货意愿提升，收升水行情延续；仔猪采购情绪下降，价格跌幅加速，对应 3 月出栏成本下降，关注远 端中枢下移风险，注意止盈止损。短期 LH2509 合约支撑位 13000 元/吨，压力位 14500 元/吨。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 13780 | | -100 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the national live pig prices showed an overall volatile trend, with limited overall market changes. The market is expected to remain in a state of relatively loose supply and demand in the future. On the futures side, the recent market showed a certain correction, but there is still support for the far - month contracts due to the relatively strong motivation for capacity reduction in the breeding sector [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The live pig prices across the country showed a volatile trend this week. Large - scale enterprises had a relatively high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening began to enter the market. The slaughter weight remained high, and the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand was average, with a slight increase in slaughter volume but also an increase in frozen product inventory and a decline in fresh - sales rate. The futures market was under pressure from the spot side, but there was still support for far - month contracts [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a short - selling strategy near the high for near - month contracts and a long - buying strategy near the low for far - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Implement the LH91 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell far - month put options [5]. 2. Data Chart & Logic Analysis Live Pig Prices - This week, live pig prices in various regions showed a volatile trend. In the Northeast, the price was 13.4 - 13.5 yuan/kg, up 0.05 - 0.15 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 13.77 - 13.83 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, it was 13.83 - 13.92 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.15 yuan/kg; in East China, it was 13.9 - 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 to up 0.05 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, it was 13.55 - 13.71 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.25 yuan/kg; in Central China, it was 13.71 - 14.1 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.3 yuan/kg; in South China, it was 13.27 - 14.99 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg. The market supply pressure remained stable, and prices fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume changed little this week. Large - scale enterprises had high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening increased slightly. The slaughter weight increased slightly, and the price difference between large and small pigs rose, indicating a slowdown in the weight - reduction rhythm. The subsequent slaughter pressure still exists, but secondary fattening may have an impact. - **Consumption**: The demand was still average. The slaughter volume increased month - on - month, but the frozen product inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate continued to decline [12]. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending August 15, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 28.85 yuan/head, down 16.28 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head, down 22.91 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profits declined due to the general pig price trend and the strong performance of sows and piglets in the previous period [20]. Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 389 yuan/head, down 26 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/kg, down 30 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for piglet replenishment by breeders was average. - **Sows**: The sow price was 1612 yuan/head, down 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs showed a rebound trend, and the culling situation changed little. - **Farrowing Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July increased slightly month - on - month, with a 0.52% increase in the comprehensive sample and a 0.14% increase in large - scale enterprises. According to Ganglian's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July remained flat month - on - month, with a 0.01% increase in large - scale enterprises and a 0.17% decrease in small and medium - sized farmers [25][27].