Core Viewpoint - The mechanical equipment industry is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by fundamental industry factors, with expectations for a new upward cycle due to multiple drivers such as cyclical reversal, growth explosion, and export rise [2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of September 2025, the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Industry Index has increased by 37% year-to-date, ranking sixth among all primary industries and significantly outperforming the market [1]. - Major companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG have seen their stock prices reach historical highs, with core component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic experiencing over 50% growth [1]. Group 2: Previous Cycle Analysis - The previous cycle (approximately 2016 to 2021) showed a strong correlation between stock performance and industry prosperity, driven by domestic infrastructure projects, improved real estate starts, and strong equipment replacement demand [4]. - Sany Heavy Industry's stock rose approximately 70% from its low in mid-2016 to its peak in August 2017, with the overall cycle lasting about 4.5 years until the first quarter of 2021 [4]. - A significant divergence occurred in early 2021, where Sany Heavy Industry's revenue reached a historical high, yet its stock price fell over 40% from its peak, indicating a warning signal [5]. Group 3: Current Cycle Dynamics - The current cycle is characterized by a more complex structural recovery, shifting from pure investment-driven growth to a combination of domestic stock updates, globalization, and technological paradigm shifts [10]. - The domestic market recovery is supported not only by traditional infrastructure investment but also by the lifecycle replacement of equipment and stringent environmental policies [11]. - The theoretical replacement cycle for major equipment like excavators is approximately 8 to 10 years, with significant sales peaks from 2016 to 2018 now entering a concentrated replacement window [11]. Group 4: Globalization and Risk Management - Leading companies have established deep global layouts to create a key "performance stabilizer," with a consensus that "not going abroad means going out of business" [12]. - The overseas market not only supplements scale but also ensures profit quality, with many manufacturers reporting higher gross margins from international sales compared to domestic [12]. Group 5: Technological Transformation - The current cycle's most profound difference lies in the industrial value reallocation driven by technological iteration, particularly the deep integration of electrification and intelligence [14]. - Electric products accounted for 40% of Sany Group's exhibited equipment at the Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition, with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [14]. - The shift towards intelligent equipment, such as unmanned road rollers and remotely controlled excavators, indicates a future competitive landscape focused on technology, data, and ecosystems [14].