截至2025年9月末，申万机械设备行业指数年内涨幅达37%，位列所有一级行业第六位，大幅跑赢市场。 以三一重工、徐工机械为代表的千亿级龙头股价在3月份相继创下历史新高，恒立液压等核心部件厂商涨幅也 超过50%，山河智能更因超级工程刺激在15个交易日内收获9个涨停，股价创近十年新高。 这一轮上涨 由行业基本面驱动，工程机械板块在周期反转、成长爆发与出口崛起的多重动力下或将进入 新一轮上行周期 。 复盘上一轮周期 新周期有何不同？ 相比上一轮周期， 本轮工程机械的复苏动能 呈现出更复杂的结构性特征， 其驱动逻辑 已从单纯的投资 拉动，转向了 国内存量更新、全球化拓展以及技术范式迁移三重力量的叠加 。 在上一轮工程机械周期(约2016年至2021年)中，相关个股的表现呈现出与行业景气度高度联动但又暗含博 弈的复杂图景。该 轮周期的起点可追溯至2016年，由国内基建项目落地、房地产开工好转以及强大的设备 更新需求共同驱动。 龙头公司三一重工的股价自2016年上半年低点开始上涨，至2017年8月期间已有约70%的涨幅，而其整体 上涨周期持续了约4.5年，直至2021年第一季度。与早年剧烈波动不同，这一轮周期中，因需求以 ...

浙商证券研报指出，山推股份已回购股份近1亿元，未来股权激励或员工持股计划可期。2025年经营目 标：营业收入157亿元，预计同比增长10%，其中海外收入90亿元，预计同比增长21%。挖掘机方面， 依托推土机渠道及山东重工集团平台和供应链优势，有望快速崛起。2024年12月12日晚，公司公告收购 山重建机100%股权交割完成。此外，公司拟发行H股深入推进全球化战略，未来雷沃工程机械与山推 同业竞争有望逐步解决。2024年11月10日，山东重工集团出具《关于避免同业竞争的承诺函》，承诺5 年内采取包括但不限于业务调整、资产重组等措施解决雷沃工程机械、潍柴青岛与山推股份的挖掘机业 务存在的同业竞争情形。维持"买入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 工程机械 山推股份(000680) 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 12 日 已回购股份近 1 亿元，公司季度业绩有望开始提速 ——山推股份点评报告 事件：2025 年 10 月 10 日晚，公司发布关于回购股份方案实施进展的公告。 投资要点 ❑ 已回购股份近 1 亿元，未来股权激励或员工持股计划可期 截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，公司通过股份回购专用证券账户以集中竞价方式回购公司股 份 1076 万股，占公司目前总股本的 0.72%，最高成交价 9.74 元/股，最低成交价 8.64 元/股，成交总金额 9999 万元（不含交易费用）。2025 年 4 月 22 日晚，公司公告拟 1.5 亿~3 亿元回购股份，在未来适宜时机将全部用于股权激励计划或实施员工持 股计划。据公司公告，自 2025 年 9 月 26 日起，因公司实施 2025 年中期权益分 派，本次回购价格将由不超过 13.82 元/股调整为不超过 13.79 元/股。 ❑ 推土机迈向全球，挖掘机打开空间，矿山机械发展潜力大 1）2025 年经营目标：营业收入 157 亿元，预计同比增长 10%，其中海外 ...

10月9日，三一重工赴港上市终于获得中国证监会出具的备案通知书。 这家工程机械巨头计划发行不超过10.83亿股，登陆港交所主板。 从2009年首次尝 试到如今第四次冲刺，梁稳根等了16年。 若成功上市，这将是其掌控的第四家上市公司，也是三一重工全球化战略的关键落子。 当前，三一重工市值逼近2000亿元，梁稳根家族财富高达615亿 元，而海外市场已贡献六成营收，赴港上市不仅是融资渠道的拓展，更是一场关于"不出海，就出局"生存逻辑的终极考验。 三一重工的赴港上市路堪称一场马拉松。 早在2009年，梁稳根就首次启动H股计划，但此后多年进展缓慢。 2011年，公司曾获证监会批准发行H股，并 抛出34亿美元的筹资计划，却在香港路演后因市场波动被迫搁浅。 2023年2月，三一重工转向筹划发行GDR（全球存托凭证）并在德国法兰克福交易所上市，但这一计划于2024年4月终止。 转折点出现在2025年2月，公司宣布重启港股上市计划，5月正式向港交所递交招股书，由中信证券担任独家保荐人。 此次获得备案通知书，意味着三一重工必须在12个月内完成发行，否则需更新材料。 对于梁稳根而言，这场跨越三代上市周期的博弈，终于迎来决定性 三一 ...

国信证券近日发布机械行业10月投资策略暨三季报前瞻：9月行情回顾&重要数据跟 踪：9月机械行业（申万分类）指数上涨5.29%，跑赢沪深300指数2.09个pct，机械行业TTM 市盈率/市净率约为38.26/3.12倍，环比提升。9月钢/铜/铝价格指数环比变 动-0.41%/+5.05%/+1.81%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 9月行情回顾&重要数据跟踪：9月机械行业（申万分类）指数上涨5.29%，跑赢沪深300 指数2.09个pct，机械行业TTM市盈率/市净率约为38.26/3.12倍，环比提升。9月钢/铜/铝价格 指数环比变动-0.41%/+5.05%/+1.81%。 PMI（国家统计局9月30日数据）：9月制造业PMI指数49.80%，环比提升0.4个百分点， 与机械行业相关度高的装备制造业PMI指数51.90%，高于制造业总体水平。 工程机械（中国工程机械工业协会9月6日数据）：2025年8月销售各类挖掘机16523台， 同比增长12.8%。其中国内销量7685台，同比增长14.8%；出口量8838台，同比增长11.1%。 重点组合&10月投资观点：把握成长主线的投资机会 重点组合：华测检测 ...

证券研究报告 2025年10月10日 行业评级：优于大市 评级变动：维持 机械设备行业跟踪：工程机械行业韧性足，内外销 整体边际改善 分析师：谷诚 资格证书：S0650524120002 邮箱：gucheng@mgzq.com 联系人：刘康衡 资格证书：S0650125020014 邮箱：liukangheng@mgzq.com 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 摘要 资料来源：麦高证券研究发展部 请务必阅读报告正文后的重要声明部分 1 ➢ 宏观景气度跟踪：2025年8月中国制造业PMI录得49.4%，环比上升0.1个百分点，仍处于收缩区间，其中生产 PMI指数达50.8%，处于扩张区间。新订单PMI、原材料库存PMI指数和新出口订单PMI指数达49.5%、48.0%、 47.2%，相比于7月数据呈现边际改善态势，但是仍处于收缩区间。2025年8月中国工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）同比下降2.9%，环比结束连续8个月下行态势，由下降0.2%转为持平，居民消费价格指数（CPI）由上 月同比持平转为下降0.4%。2025年1-8月全国固定资产投资完成额326111亿元，同比增长0.5%，其中基础设施 投资同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing strong structural characteristics, with a focus on growth sectors, and the trend of manufacturing upgrades is expected to create structural investment opportunities in the medium to long term [2][10]. Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Non-ferrous metals continue to rise, while other cyclical products show mixed price performance. In September, the prices of thermal coal, cement index, and glass index increased by 1.3%, 0.6%, and 2.4% respectively, while prices for coking coal, coke, rebar, iron ore, and chemical indices fell by 2.2%, 1.2%, 2.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September aligns with market expectations, leading to a rapid increase in gold prices, while industrial metals and some minor metals (cobalt, tungsten) also saw price increases [3]. 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition supports demand for electrical equipment, and policies aimed at reducing competition are catalyzing price rebounds across various segments of the photovoltaic industry. In August, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and exports increased by 13% [4]. - The new energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with wind and solar installations increasing by 72% and 65% year-on-year respectively [4]. 3) Consumer Products - The growth rate of home appliance sales has slowed, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners all showing a 1% year-on-year increase in August. The textile and apparel sectors are also facing challenges in both domestic and overseas demand [5]. - The average daily room rate (ADR), occupancy rate (OCC), and revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel sector all saw year-on-year declines of 0.6%, 1.5%, and 2.1% respectively [5]. 4) Technology - The strong demand for AI computing power continues to be validated, driving growth in sub-sectors such as optical modules, switches, and servers. In July, major cloud service providers adjusted their 2025 capital expenditure guidance upwards [6]. - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 20.6% year-on-year in July, and China's semiconductor sales growing by 10.4% [6]. 5) Financials - The insurance sector saw a 9.6% year-on-year increase in premium income in August, while the total assets of insurance companies grew by approximately 17.5% year-on-year [7]. - The real estate sector remains at a low point, with a 0.5% year-on-year decline in property sales area in September, despite a slight month-on-month increase [7]. 6) Recommendations - Focus on AI computing and robotics-related industries, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry conditions occurs [8]. - Consider sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals, which are still in a favorable supply-demand cycle [8]. - Monitor the "14th Five-Year Plan" related fields, especially as the upcoming meeting in October may provide insights into policy directions [8].

来源：@21世纪商业评论微博 撰文丨杨松 编辑丨鄢子为 梁稳根离港交所，又近了一步。 10月9日，其实控的三一重工，发布公告称，本次赴港上市，收到中国证监会出具的备案通知书，即业 内俗称的路条。 这家工程机械巨头，拟在港发行不超过10.8亿股，提速国际化。公告称，所募资金将用于拓展全球化业 务、加大研发投入等。 早在2009年，梁稳根就启动三一重工的H股上市，十多年间，冲击三次未果。若一切顺利，他今年将赴 港敲钟，得偿夙愿，收获第四个IPO。 值此关键节点，三一重工宣布，截至9月底，共支付13.55亿元，累计回购7267.9万股，以示信心。 出海寻机 梁稳根及儿子梁在中，仅在三一重工担任非执行董事，日常经营交由向文波团队负责。 这是其老搭档，拥有大连理工大学硕士学位，于1989年进入三一重工，一干就是36年，深得信任。2022 年，梁稳根辞去董事长职位，向文波接棒。 国内房地产市场低迷，影响工程机械行业，三一重工扬帆出海，推高收入。 向文波介绍，早在2002年，梁稳根就在布局海外市场，20多年来，团队形成"不出海，就出局"的共识。 其已经从早期简单的产品出口，转向产业出口。 海外收入占比提升，提振业绩。 向文 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the A-share market, with major indices achieving significant monthly gains, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose by 12.04% in September [4] - The stock portfolio for October 2025 shows a diverse range of companies with strong investment themes, including overseas expansion, innovative pharmaceuticals, and recovery in the wind power sector [2][3] Company Summaries Huaxin Cement (600801) - The company is actively expanding overseas, aiming to double its cement production capacity from 25 million tons to approximately 50 million tons by 2025 [10] - Despite a slight decline in cement sales, non-cement business segments such as aggregates and concrete have shown significant growth [10] - The company reported a revenue of 34.217 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 1.36% increase year-on-year, with a notable recovery in net profit in the first half of 2025 [10] Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) - The company achieved record high operating performance with a revenue of 94.773 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 60.07% year-on-year increase [12] - The company is expanding its global footprint, particularly in gold resources, and has successfully acquired a mining project in Ecuador [16] - The diversified product portfolio, including copper and cobalt, positions the company well against market fluctuations [16] Heng Rui Medicine (600276) - The company reported a stable growth in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 8.556 billion yuan, up 12.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.576 billion yuan, up 24.88% [20] - The innovative drug segment is a key driver of growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [20] - The company is focusing on accelerating the commercialization of new products to enhance future growth [20] CATL (300750) - The company reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 30.485 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.33% increase year-on-year [24] - CATL continues to innovate with new products in the electric vehicle battery sector, maintaining a strong market position [24] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has significant cash reserves to support its growth strategy [24] Goldwind Technology (002202) - The company achieved a revenue of 28.537 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 41.26% increase year-on-year, with a notable improvement in profitability [29] - The sales of large wind turbine units have significantly increased, with a sales capacity of 10.64 GW, up 106.60% year-on-year [29] - The international business segment has also seen substantial growth, with a revenue increase of 75.34% [29] XCMG Machinery (000425) - The company reported a revenue of 54.808 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a growth of 8.04% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.358 billion yuan [34] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, which now accounts for 46.61% of total revenue [34] - The growth in demand for earth-moving machinery and the recovery in the lifting machinery sector are key highlights [34] Inovance Technology (300124) - The company reported a revenue of approximately 9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a 50% increase in its new energy business [38] - The company is leveraging its multi-platform and customized solutions to enhance its market position [38] - Significant growth in international sales, particularly in emerging markets, is noted [38] Changdian Technology (600584) - The company achieved a revenue of 18.605 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 20.14% increase year-on-year, despite a decline in net profit [43] - Changdian Technology is recognized as a leading player in advanced packaging technology within the semiconductor industry [43] - The company is focusing on automotive electronics and has seen a 34.2% increase in revenue from this segment [43] Luxshare Precision (002475) - The company reported a revenue of 1245.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 6.644 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.13% increase [48] - The consumer electronics segment continues to grow steadily, with significant contributions from new product launches [48] - The automotive business has shown remarkable growth, with an 82.07% increase in revenue [48] Kingsoft Office (688111) - The company is focusing on integrating AI technologies into its office solutions, aiming to enhance productivity and user experience [49] - The report indicates a strong market position and growth potential in the AI-driven office software sector [49]

9月30日晚，中国证监会对三只松鼠、剑桥科技、均胜电子、三一重工境内企业境外发行上市予以确认，4家均为赴港上市企业。 1、三只松鼠 拟发行不超过81,548,274股境外上市普通股并在香港联合交易所上市。 三只松鼠经营休闲零食，目前拥有三只松鼠、小鹿蓝蓝两个品牌，产品包括坚果、烘焙食品、综合零食、肉制品和果干等。 财务方面，2022至2024年，三只松鼠营收分别为72.93亿元、71.15亿元、106.22亿元，相应的净利润分别为1.29亿元、2.2亿元、4.07亿元。 2、剑桥科技 拟发行不超过77,062,000股境外上市普通股并在香港联合交易所上市。 4月25日，三只松鼠向港交所递交招股书，申请香港主板上市。该公司已于2019年7月12日在A股上市。 4月28日，剑桥科技向港交所递交招股书，申请香港主板上市。该公司已于2017年11月10日在A股上市。 剑桥科技专注于电信宽带终端、无线网络设备、智能家庭网关及工业物联网产品的研发与生产，产品广泛应用于全球主流电信运营商网络和互联网数据中 心。 财务方面，2022至2024年，剑桥科技营收分别为37.84亿元、30.85亿元、36.5亿元，相应的净利润分别 ...