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市场多空分歧,油料持续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-20 05:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean price rose significantly this week, with a range of 0.03 - 0.13 yuan per catty. The market is expected to see intense long - short competition. The peanut price may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern [2][11][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2505 this week was 4089 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99 yuan or 2.4% from the previous week. The spot basis in various regions increased compared to last week [9] - **Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, the estimated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is 9.99 million tons, Argentine soybeans is 0 tons, and US soybeans is 1.75 million tons, totaling 11.74 million tons. The remaining grain in the Northeast production area is estimated to be 10%, and less in the South. Market demand continues to be insufficient [10] - **Future Outlook**: The domestic soybean price rose significantly this week. The market sentiment in the production area is divided. The market trading and shipment speed improved slightly but overall transactions are still sluggish. Future policy expectations may cause disturbances [11] Peanut Market Analysis - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the peanut 2505 contract this week was 8006 yuan per ton, a decrease of 196 yuan or 2.4% from the previous week. The spot basis in various regions increased compared to last week [12] - **Supply and Demand**: As of April 17, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 151,171 tons, a decrease of 1080 tons from last week. The arrival volume at oil mills increased this week. The domestic market arrival volume was small, and the trading situation improved slightly [13] - **Future Outlook**: The domestic peanut price oscillated slightly higher this week. As of April 17, 2025, the average price of national common peanuts was 8260 yuan per ton, a 0.24% increase from last week. The price lacks strong upward support, and it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern [13][15]