【笔记20251117— 0.3BP玩一天（+中日关系紧张+股市小幅下跌+资金面收敛转松=微下)】 交易量小，说明市场多空分歧大，互相不让价；而交易量大，说明多空双方在某一个阶段，对价格都非常认可，多空能量也将集中释放。此后，必然要做 休整，重新聚集能量。可归纳为： 能量聚集 - 能量释放 - 中场休息 - 能量再聚集 - 再释放 - 再休息。 ——笔记哥《应对》 今日10Y国债利率最低1.800%、最高1.803%，0.3BP玩一天。债农：低波之后必见高波。上一次还是2024年6月，10Y国债困在2.30%附近装死，之后两个 月下行20BP。这次能不能也来个"向下高波"？ 外交部提醒大家近期避免"赴日"，股民表示：领导放心，我们只想"俘日"！今日大A小跌0.46%，日经225微跌0.1%，有点来气。不过听说高市早苗正在反 省其涉台言论，还算识相！ 【今日盘面】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1199亿元逆回购到期，净投放1631亿元。 税期资金面收敛转松，资金利率上行，DR001在1.51%附近，DR007在1.52%附近。 | | | | 银行间 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、热门赛道大涨大跌，三条线索预示谨慎 2、短期内或许缺少"硬利好"； 在此高位再出现剧烈震荡，天平两端并不平衡，略向空方倾斜。 3、国家发钱养娃，相关赛道为何反应平平？ 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 今天，相信很多朋友都经历了惊险的一天，坐上了好几轮过山车：大盘指数早盘一度绿油油，但很快大 幅翻红，创业板指数尤为剧烈。此前热门的水泥、钢铁、光伏等去产能赛道，早盘龙头股曾跌逾3%， 午后却又拉升逾3%；弹性较大的券商板块亦早盘下探，午后翻红。 这种"一日之内大涨大跌"的行情，究竟是机会还是风险？一句话总结：面对今日冒出的新苗头，个人倾 向保持谨慎。 市场出现两大新变化：其一，振幅骤然放大，涨跌剧烈；其二，换手率显著抬升。这说明多空双方都在 积极交易，分歧巨大。分歧本身并非坏事，但需考虑两点：第一7月以来市场已连续上涨整整一月，涨 幅可观，获利盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean price rose significantly this week, with a range of 0.03 - 0.13 yuan per catty. The market is expected to see intense long - short competition. The peanut price may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern [2][11][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2505 this week was 4089 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99 yuan or 2.4% from the previous week. The spot basis in various regions increased compared to last week [9] - **Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, the estimated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is 9.99 million tons, Argentine soybeans is 0 tons, and US soybeans is 1.75 million tons, totaling 11.74 million tons. The remaining grain in the Northeast production area is estimated to be 10%, and less in the South. Market demand continues to be insufficient [10] - **Future Outlook**: The domestic soybean price rose significantly this week. The market sentiment in the production area is divided. The market trading and shipment speed improved slightly but overall transactions are still sluggish. Future policy expectations may cause disturbances [11] Peanut Market Analysis - **Price Quotes**: The closing price of the peanut 2505 contract this week was 8006 yuan per ton, a decrease of 196 yuan or 2.4% from the previous week. The spot basis in various regions increased compared to last week [12] - **Supply and Demand**: As of April 17, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 151,171 tons, a decrease of 1080 tons from last week. The arrival volume at oil mills increased this week. The domestic market arrival volume was small, and the trading situation improved slightly [13] - **Future Outlook**: The domestic peanut price oscillated slightly higher this week. As of April 17, 2025, the average price of national common peanuts was 8260 yuan per ton, a 0.24% increase from last week. The price lacks strong upward support, and it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern [13][15]