1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply - side have decreased, and the shipment volume on the demand - side has slightly declined. The decline in factory inventory is lower than the production decline, indicating poor sales from refineries, and the social inventory has slightly increased, showing weak downstream demand. Regarding crude oil, due to the proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents, the previous premium caused by supply - tightening concerns has rapidly declined. The lower - than - expected US non - farm data in July and the significant downward revision of May and June data have raised concerns about the weakening US economy. OPEC+'s continued production increase has strengthened the expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, causing oil prices to weaken this week. In the short term, crude oil lacks positive support, and oil prices are expected to find a new bottom. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production schedules and the progress of terminal projects. It is advisable to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton and try to short on rebounds [7][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Key market events include the proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents weakening market sentiment, the lower - than - expected US non - farm data in July with significant downward revisions of May and June data, and OPEC+ announcing a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September [6]. - Key data shows that as of August 6, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.7%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of August 8, the weekly asphalt production was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 679,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week; and the social inventory was 1.367 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week. The trading strategy is to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton and short on rebounds [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are low factory inventory and marginal macro - improvement; bearish factors are lower - than - expected demand and downward cost - side drivers [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **US - Russia Relations**: Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, which initially supported oil prices. Then, the US Middle East envoy visited Russia and promoted high - level meetings, easing market tensions and causing the risk premium to decline. The proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents has weakened market sentiment, and short - term oil price trading will return to fundamentals, with news - based factors dominating short - term trends [11]. - **US Non - farm Data**: The US non - farm employment data in July was lower than expected, with an increase of 73,000 jobs compared to the expected 104,000, the smallest increase since last October. The data for May and June were significantly revised downward, with a total reduction of 258,000 jobs. This has raised concerns about the weakening US economy and put pressure on oil prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased from 45% to 75% [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September 2025. The market has already priced in this increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the production increase. It is expected to be fully implemented by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has about 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored, and attention should be paid to whether a new round of production increase will be launched [18]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of August 8, the weekly asphalt production was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production. In the third quarter, the terminal rush - work demand may stimulate refineries to increase the operating rate, and the weekly production has the potential for seasonal recovery. As of August 6, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.7%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous statistical period, mainly due to some refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [19][28]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 418,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The recent shipment volume has been around 410,000 tons, 30,000 tons lower than in June. The demand has weakened due to rainfall, and it is expected to rebound after the rain stops. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 15.87% as of August 8, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the previous week [29][32]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic asphalt import was 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative import from January to June was 1.725 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.53%. In June, the domestic asphalt export was 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons, and the cumulative export from January to June was 279,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.36% [39][42]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 679,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the production decline, indicating poor sales from refineries. The social inventory was 1.367 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the impact of typhoon and rainfall in the southern region on asphalt demand [53][60]. - **Spread**: As of August 8, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 6, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.91, and as of August 7, the asphalt basis was 197 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread has recovered, mainly because the asphalt market is stronger than crude oil due to the significant decline in oil prices, and the weakening of asphalt futures prices has strengthened the basis [67].