Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for A-shares to continue rising in 2026, driven by global central bank policies and increased foreign investment, despite the need for caution among retail investors. Group 1: Global Central Bank Policy Shift - Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have shifted from tightening to easing monetary policy, with the Fed having cut rates three times in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [3] - This shift indicates a global trend of liquidity injection aimed at stimulating economies and stabilizing markets, which is particularly beneficial for emerging markets like China [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment in A-shares - Foreign capital has been increasingly flowing into A-shares, with net inflows from northbound trading exceeding 310 billion yuan in 2025, and total holdings reaching 2.58 trillion yuan, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI and semiconductors [4] - Offshore capital also surged, with 50.6 billion USD flowing into Chinese stocks from January to October 2025, significantly surpassing the 11.4 billion USD for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Major foreign institutions predict continued investment in A-shares in 2026, with forecasts suggesting an 18% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% rise in the CSI 300 Index, driven by A-shares' valuation advantages and growth potential [5] Group 3: External Support for A-shares - A-shares attract foreign investment due to three main factors: - Currency benefits from a 10% drop in the US dollar index, leading to a stronger renminbi, which reduces the cost for foreign investors [6] - Valuation advantages, with the CSI 300 index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, compared to 30 for the S&P 500, making A-shares more appealing [6] - Coordinated domestic policies, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio from 3.8% in 2025 to an expected 4% in 2026, alongside potential monetary easing measures [6] Group 4: Caution for Retail Investors - Despite strong external support, the market is expected to experience structural fluctuations, with opportunities concentrated in technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer upgrades, while underperforming stocks may struggle [7] - Retail investors are advised to avoid chasing trends and instead focus on long-term investments, as overall A-share earnings growth is projected to rise from 6% to 8% in 2026, indicating a gradual recovery [8]