高盛预测，MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数在2026年将分别上涨20%和12% 文｜《财经》记者 张欣培 编辑｜陆玲 郭楠 在概念板块上，商业航天热度持续。中信建投表示，当前商业航天产业在国家政策支持和产业技术突破 共同助力下，有望进入新纪元，当前商业航天发展是国企与民营企业共振周期。 对于A股近期上涨原因，星石投资副总经理、首席策略投资官方磊认为，主要在于积极因素积累、资金 情绪偏高、对利多因素反应敏感等，此轮市场上涨并非单一因素驱动，流动性因素和政策预期都对股市 表现有助力。 流动性方面，2025年12月美联储降息扩表，国内中央经济工作会议定调财政货币政策双宽格局，市场流 动性预期向好。政策方面，2025年12月中央经济工作会议定调积极政策基调，并指明2026年经济工作重 点在于扩大内需、科技创新及反内卷领域，为后续资本市场投资指明结构性机会。此外，岁末年初人民 币持续升值，美元对离岸人民币突破7的关键点位，也对市场情绪走高形成支撑。 "目前仍处于牛市中期。2025年股市整体以估值扩张为主，成长板块景气度较高，传统板块景气度触 底，股市估值扩张具有结构性分化的特征，与此同时，本轮企业盈利底大概率已经在20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

与此同时，1月7日沪深两市成交额2.85万亿元，较上一个交易日放量476亿元，成交额连续2个交易日超 2.8万亿元。 在此火热行情之下，多家券商机构对2026年股票市场表现表达乐观预期。其中，中信证券预计，2026年 万得全A全年涨幅5%—10%。同时，科技主线或仍将表现，其中AI叙事将向纵深演绎，持续主导科技板 块价值重塑。 A股全年或上行VS宽基指数波动率下行 展望2026年全年，机构普遍看好A股市场。 中信证券认为，国际方面，2026年中美关系有望维持阶段性平衡。国内方面，"十五五"期间中国经济增 长中枢或达4.8%左右。 "我们认为，政策聚焦构建现代化产业体系，有望实现'一子落而满盘活'的效果，科技创新、产业升级 以及综合整治'内卷式'竞争有望取得显著成效。"中信证券展望2026年，预计中国宏观经济呈现结构分 化下的温和修复态势，全年经济增速或达4.9%，出口保持韧性，投资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。 中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 2026年1月7日，上证指数创下十四连阳，盘中触及4098.78点，极端逼近4100点整数关口。 在此判断下，A股市场表现方面，中信证券预计，2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%—1 ...

海外方面，美国Q3 GDP超预期但12月PMI显示增长边际走弱，未来一段时间，美联储仍在宽松周期 中，相对友好的金融条件能对美国增长的薄弱环节起到一定的托底作用，防止滑向衰退，但回暖幅度可 能有限。 国内方面，12月制造业PMI大超预期，自年中以来重新回到景气度扩张区间，服务业和建筑业PMI亦回 升，或受外需韧性及年末重大项目推进速度加快提振，供需两端分项指标均有所上行。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周供给担忧再度加大叠加跨年资金面趋紧，债市小幅调整，短端调整幅度 大于长端。2026年1月政府债计划发行规模明显高于去年1月，叠加银行信贷冲开门红，1月银行资金或 较为紧张，债市承接力量有限，关注央行投放资金对冲情况。节前公募赎回新规落地，较征求意见稿更 为温和，债市赎回压力有所改善，但趋势性机会仍需等待货币政策明确宽松或配置力量回归。 A股方面，中美关系缓和、人民币持续升值、稳增长政策积极发力下宏观环境利好A股市场，春季躁动 或可期。结构上，可以考虑关注拥挤度处于低位且具备产业催化的科技成长行情。 港股方面，人民币升值有助于港股流动性环境改善，近期国内增长边际回暖亦有利于港股beta上行。 原油方面，从全球经济基 ...

【编者按】 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 新形势下，外资投行唱多中国的声音不绝于耳。高盛2026年建议高配A股和港股；摩根大通将中国内地 与香港股市评级调升至"超配"；瑞银认为，政策支持、企业盈利改善及资金流入等因素可能推动A股估 值提升。这些判断均反映出国际资本对中国经济转型方向与2026年发展前景的认同，更预示着冬去春 来，全球资本有望流向东方。 智通财经"首席连线"2026年市场展望以《春水向东流》为题，取的也是此意。展望中，"首席连线"工作 室将访谈数十位权威经济学家、基金经理和分析师，请他们谈谈对新一年中国经济的判断，解析投资新 机遇。 管涛表示，2025年金价飙升连创50多次历史新高，很重要的原因就是全球不确定性增加。其中，特朗普 关税政策是这种不确定性的主要来源。 1月5日，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛做客智通财经"春水向东流——《首席连线》2026年市场展 望"专题，带来分析和展望。 管涛此前曾长期在政府部门工作，目前还担任中国证券业协会新一届首席经济学家（发展战略）专业委 员会的主任委员。 对于2026年海外主要经济体的货币政策，管涛认为，将进入"多速并行"阶段， ...

苏州华之杰电讯股份有限公司 2025年第三季度权益分派实施公告 ● 每股分配比例 A股每股现金红利0.50元 证券代码：603400 证券简称：华之杰 公告编号：2026-001 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 3.分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本100,000,000股为基数，每股派发现金红利0.50元（含税），共 计派发现金红利50,000,000元。 三、相关日期 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025年11月17日的2025年第二次临时股东会审议通过。 2.分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司（以下简 称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 ■ 四、分配实施办法 无限售条件流通股的红利委托中国结算上海分公司通过其资金清算系统向股权登记日上海证券交易所收 市后登记在册并在上海证券交易所各会员办理了指定交易的股东派发。已办理指定交易的投资者可于红 利发放日在其指定的证券营业部领取 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天A股大盘整体上涨，迎来开门红。 截止到收盘，A股整体回到4.0星上下，距离3点几星一步之遥。 大中小盘股都上涨。 成长风格上涨较多，红利等价值风格微涨。 港股科技、恒生科技、A50、自由现金流等指数，也整体上涨，回到了正常估值。 随着上涨，估值表的绿化率也在逐渐降低。 几个组合，净值也创下新高。 元旦假期里，A股没有开盘。 不过港股有开盘交易。 上周五，港股迎来开门红。 恒生指数上涨2.76%，恒生科技指数上涨4%。 今天港股波动不大，微涨微跌。 内地投资港股的基金，周五放假，所以基金净值没有更新。 不过周五的收益也没有丢失。这部分会体现在周一的基金净值中。 也就是，1月5日周一，港股基金的净值，会同时更新"假期里+周一"的合并涨跌幅。 这样合并起来，A股港股的基金，今天净值都是普遍上涨。 1. A股港股，在2026年开年都迎来大幅上涨。 A股和港股，不同阶段的收益有高有低。 例如25年1-3季度，港股涨幅比A股高不少；到了4季度又变成A股比港股涨幅高。 但长期回报差不多。 这里说的是港股中的内地公司，例如H股、中概股等。 这些公司主营业务在内地，属于人民币资产。 ...

Group 1: US Macro Strategy - The US economy remains robust, with weekly initial jobless claims falling to 199,000, indicating strong performance beyond seasonal trends, reflecting a positive cycle between businesses and the labor market [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1% and the Nasdaq index by 1.5%, with concerns over high valuations and AI monetization pressures persisting in the mid-term outlook [2] - The recommendation is to maintain a standard allocation to US stocks, with expected returns aligning with profit growth, and to consider increasing allocations if a market correction of 10%-20% occurs [2] Group 2: US Debt and Currency - In the context of a rate-cutting cycle, US Treasury yields are expected to trend downward, with a focus on 2-5 year bonds due to liquidity easing [3] - The dollar is anticipated to remain in a downtrend, but the US economy's relative strength suggests no basis for a sustained decline, with a potential rebound expected in 2026 [3] - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate moderately, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials and strong export performance, although short-term appreciation may slow [3] Group 3: China Macro Strategy - Economic sentiment is showing signs of improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% and the non-manufacturing PMI to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion [5] - Domestic demand is mixed, with a significant drop in new home transactions by 26.7% in major cities, while tourism and consumption during the New Year holiday showed growth [5] - The government is implementing policies to boost consumption and investment, including optimizing subsidy programs and accelerating infrastructure investments totaling approximately 295 billion yuan [6] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the recent manufacturing PMI data indicating recovery, while regulatory changes have eased redemption fees for bond funds [7] - The outlook for government bond yields suggests a steep curve, with expectations of moderate inflation and potential for further monetary easing [7] - The strategy recommends focusing on short to medium-term bonds while being cautious with long-term investments until yields reach the upper range [7] Group 5: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed slight gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, driven by year-end currency appreciation and significant capital inflows [8] - Short-term risks include diminishing support from year-end capital influx and potential earnings disappointments during the upcoming reporting season [9] - The market structure indicates strong performance in cyclical and growth sectors, with recommendations to focus on technology stocks driven by AI trends and high-end manufacturing [9] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market saw significant gains post-New Year, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.76%, attributed to rapid yuan appreciation [9] - The mid-term outlook remains positive for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, with dividend yields being notably higher than comparable A-share stocks [9]

2. 高盛：委内瑞拉未来石油产量可能会有所增加，油价风险偏向下行 高盛集团表示，美国介入之后，委内瑞拉的石油产量在未来有望进一步提高，这可能会最终对油价造成 压力。包括Daan Struyven和Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby在内的分析师表示："产量的任何回升都可能会是缓 慢且有限的，因为基础设施已经受损，而且还需要强有力的激励措施来促进大规模的上游投资。"就近 期而言，该行维持了其对今年油价的平均预测不变，布伦特原油的均价预测仍为每桶56美元，WTI原油 的均价预测仍为每桶52美元。不过他们表示："除了近期俄罗斯和美国的石油产量数据有所增长之外， 委内瑞拉长期产量可能会进一步攀升，这使得我们对2027年及以后的油价预测面临更大的下行风险。" 3. 凯投宏观：不认为委内瑞拉事件会改变石油市场 国外 1. 瑞银：上调黄金目标价至5000美元 "我们继续看好黄金，并将2026年3月、6月和9月的目标价由每盎司4500美元上调至5000美元。"瑞银财 富管理投资总监办公室最新观点指出，黄金价格近期创下历史新高，主要受美元走弱、地缘政治紧张加 剧、制度性不确定性持续以及季节性流动性偏紧等因素推动。多国 ...

来源：中新经纬 A股将迎来2026年首个交易日，今年能否延续强势行情？ 2025年，上证指数以"11连阳"收官。回看全年，上证指数涨18.41%，深证成指涨29.87%，创业板指涨 49.57%。 上交所发布的2025年上海股票市场统计表显示，截至2025年底，沪市总市值约64.78万亿元，较2024年 底增加约12.35万亿元；股票筹资额约1.04万亿元，同比增长343.64%，其中IPO筹资额813亿元，同比增 长148.75%；股票账户数3.99亿户，较2024年底增加2700万户。 深交所披露，2025年深市公司回购增持金额上限超1100亿元，分红持续超5000亿元；深市ETF总规模超 过1.79万亿元，同比增长79%；全年IPO公司48家，其中87.5%属于战略新兴产业；全年股票融资额1485 亿元。 值得注意的是，当地时间1月3日，美国空袭委内瑞拉首都并抓获了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子。招商 证券指出，从后续影响来看，短期油价走势或较为纠结。在美国抑制通胀的诉求下，油价可能下跌，利 好航空、炼化化工等油价敏感的下游板块。另外，美国行动较为快速的背景下，短期美元或较为强势， 黄金走势或较为纠结。同时 ...