全年各类主体通过沪深北交易所发行债券（包括公司债券、企业债券、资产支持证券、国债和地方政府 债券）筹资16.3万亿元。沪深交易所共上市基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）20只，募集资 金402亿元。年末全国中小企业股份转让系统挂牌公司5960家，全年挂牌公司累计股票筹资74亿元。 其中指出，全年沪深交易所A股累计筹资12583亿元，比上年增加8332亿元。沪深交易所首次公开发行 上市A股90只，筹资1242亿元，比上年增加620亿元，其中科创板股票19只，筹资381亿元；沪深交易所 A股再融资（包括公开增发、定向增发、配股、优先股、可转债转股）11341亿元，增加7712亿元。北 京证券交易所公开发行股票26只，筹资76亿元，再融资4亿元。 2月28日，国家统计局官网发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。 ...

【编者按】 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 新形势下，外资投行唱多中国的声音不绝于耳。高盛2026年建议高配A股和港股；摩根大通将中国内地 与香港股市评级调升至"超配"；瑞银认为，政策支持、企业盈利改善及资金流入等因素可能推动A股估 值提升。这些判断均反映出国际资本对中国经济转型方向与2026年发展前景的认同，更预示着冬去春 来，全球资本有望流向东方。 智通财经"首席连线"2026年市场展望以《春水向东流》为题，取的也是此意。展望中，"首席连线"工作 室将访谈数十位权威经济学家、基金经理和分析师，请他们谈谈对新一年中国经济的判断，解析投资新 机遇。 近日，东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果做客智通财经"春水向东流——《首席连线》2026 年市场展望"专题，带来分析和展望。 马年A股或会走出类"N"形走势 陈果进一步指出，从目前的情况看，中国的内需正在修复过程中，即便美联储、美股有所波动，A股市 场自身向上的趋势也不会被逆转。因此，下半年市场大概率依然会有一些比较好的表现。 那么也许我们到今年的二季度，市场可能要迎来一定程度的震荡或者是整固，但是从目前的情况来看， 基于我们认为中 ...

A股市场方面，多数保险机构对2026年A股市场持较乐观态度。2026年，保险机构更看好科创50、沪深 300、中证A500和创业板等相关股票，看好电子、有色金属、电力设备、计算机、通信、医药生物和基 础化工等行业，关注芯片半导体、国防军工、AI算力、机器人、能源金属、商业航天、高股息、医药 生物与创新药和企业出海与全球化等投资主题，认为企业盈利修复和流动性环境是影响A股市场的主要 因素。资产配置上，多数保险机构计划小幅增配A股。 基金投资方面，2026年，保险资产管理机构倾向配置股票型基金、二级债基、混合偏股型基金、指数型 基金和ETF基金；保险公司偏好配置二级债基、股票型基金、混合偏股型基金、成长型基金和ETF基 金。近半数保险机构计划小幅增配公募基金。 据中国银行保险资产管理业协会网站，该协会近日发布的"保险机构2026年资产配置展望调查结果"显 示，大类资产配置方面，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资产。多数保险机 构预计对银行存款、债券、证券投资基金及其他金融资产的配置比例与2025年基本持平，部分机构有意 愿适度或微幅增加股票投资。 债券市场方面，多数保险机构对2026年债券 ...

2月24日，A股和国内期货市场迎来马年春节后首个交易日。A股市场开门"发红包"。当日，上证指数收 涨0.87%，报4117.41点，深证成指涨逾1%，创业板指涨0.99%，北证50微涨0.37%，全天市场成交额突 破2万亿元，超4000只个股上涨，111只个股涨停。 "不过，地缘政治风险的影响往往是短暂的，油价长期走势还是要回归基本面。国际能源署最新月报显 示，2025年全球原油库存累积速度为2020年以来最快，增加4.77亿桶，OECD国家库存4年来首次超过5 年均值。OPEC+减产解除、非OPEC国家供应强劲增长及能源转型持续推进，共同影响原油的供需格 局。因此，油价可能是阶段性反弹，持续性存疑。"程小勇说。 节后首日，黑色板块表现偏弱。对此，中辉期货黑色负责人陈为昌认为，从供需来看，钢材需求仍然偏 弱，表观消费低于去年同期水平，但铁水产量为农历同期最高，供需整体偏宽松。原料端，铁矿石春节 假期期间发运量回升，为同期最高水平。焦煤节后开始复产，成本端存在下行驱动。黑色板块整体仍受 制于弱现实的压制。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 关于贵金属板块大涨的原因，金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示，春节假期期间，美国关税 ...

中国银行保险资产管理业协会(以下简称"银行保险资管业协会")近日发布的"保险机构2026年资产配置展 望调查结果"显示，保险机构今年普遍看好的境内投资资产是股票和证券投资基金。其中，多数保险机 构对2026年A股市场持较乐观的态度，并计划小幅增配A股。同时，2026年保险机构最看好的境外投资 品种是港股，黄金投资和美股投资也受到保险机构较大关注。 此外，银行保险资管业协会发布的银行保险资产管理行业投资信心指数显示，权益投资信心指数显著上 升。 境外投资看好港股 银行保险资管业协会表示，此次调查更加突出"资产配置"导向。127家保险机构参与反馈，包括36家保 险资产管理机构和91家保险公司。 调查结果显示，从大类资产配置来看，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资 产。多数保险机构预计对银行存款、债券、证券投资基金及其他金融资产的配置比例与2025年基本持 平，部分保险机构有意愿适度或微幅增加股票投资。 从债券配置来看，多数保险机构对2026年债券市场持中性态度。利率债方面，保险机构预计10年期国债 收益率将处于1.8%—1.9%(含)，30年期国债收益率将集中在2.2%—2.4%(含)。信 ...

全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2026年2月24日 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 美伊局势进一步恶化，地缘政治风险居高不下。美伊双方在日内瓦如期举行了第二轮美伊谈判，双方立场仍 存在差距，在核问题上的分歧难以弥合，同时双方军事动作不断，特朗普考虑对伊朗进行军事打击以迫使伊 朗接受美方要求，地缘政治风险推动能源、贵金属等大宗商品震荡转强。美国经济数据呈现出滞胀态势，受 政府关门拖累GDP增速回落至1.4%，同时核心PCE超出预期，1月会议纪要也显示美联储官员内部分歧加 大，美联储维持观望态度。关税政策再生变数，最高法院推翻特朗普关税后，约有1750亿美元关税面临退 款，但特朗普立即寻求加征15%的临时对等关税并通过各类法条加征行业关税，关税政策不确定性加大， 市场避险情绪升温，短期波动难以降低。 春节假期期间中国权益资产表现疲弱，主要受到海外关税政策扰动以及美国科技公司盈利担忧的映射，节后 临近两会召开，将再度迎来宏观的混乱期， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2026, highlighting the support from foreign investment banks and the potential for capital inflow into Chinese markets, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1]. Economic Growth and Market Outlook - China's economic growth rate of around 5% is still among the highest globally, despite a slowdown since 2010 due to the increasing size of the economy [2][3]. - The focus on domestic demand as a key task for 2026 is crucial, given the unpredictable external environment and the large domestic market [3]. Monetary Policy and Currency - There is an expectation for moderate monetary easing, including potential interest rate cuts, but significant reductions are not anticipated [3]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate against the US dollar and slightly against a basket of currencies in 2026 [3]. Price Stability and Consumer Spending - The article discusses the need for policies to address cyclical issues and improve consumer spending, emphasizing the importance of increasing residents' income to boost consumption [4]. - Stabilizing housing prices and improving property income are also seen as vital for enhancing consumer confidence and spending [4]. Investment Opportunities - The A-share market is expected to show structural opportunities, particularly in the technology sector, as 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with numerous goals set for high-tech industries [5]. - Despite potential adjustments in US tech stocks impacting domestic sectors, the long-term outlook for technology, especially AI, remains positive [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the projected trends of the RMB against the USD, indicating a weak start in 2025 followed by a strengthening phase, with expectations of surpassing the 7.0 mark by year-end and continuing strong into early 2026. Key drivers include a weakening USD, strong economic fundamentals in China, policy guidance, and corporate behaviors [1][3]. Summary by Sections RMB to USD Exchange Rate Trends for 2025 and Early 2026 - The RMB is expected to experience three phases in 2025: a pressure period from January to April, a rebound from April to July, and a strengthening phase from July to December. The onshore RMB fell to 7.35 and the offshore RMB dropped below 7.4 during the pressure period. The rebound saw the RMB rise to 7.16 due to easing trade tensions and a 9% drop in the USD index. By year-end, the RMB surpassed the 7.0 mark, with early 2026 seeing both onshore and offshore RMB break 6.9, marking a new high since April 2023. The RMB appreciated approximately 4% against the USD over the year, while it depreciated 3.5% against a basket of currencies [2][3][5]. Key Factors Driving RMB Strength Against USD - The weakening of the USD is a primary factor, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in late 2025, totaling 75 basis points, leading to a 9.7% decline in the USD index. China's economic fundamentals remain robust, with a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025, driving corporate demand for currency exchange. Additionally, foreign capital inflow into A-shares exceeded 150 billion yuan. Policy measures from the central bank, including adjustments to the midpoint rate, have also supported the RMB's appreciation. Corporate behaviors, such as increased willingness to exchange currency due to RMB appreciation, have created a positive feedback loop [4][5]. Future Outlook for RMB to USD Exchange Rate - In the short term, a moderate appreciation of the RMB is anticipated, with many institutions predicting it could reach 6.8 in 2026. Supporting factors include the continuation of the Fed's rate cuts and strong performance in China's economy, particularly in technology and exports. However, potential risks include a rebound in US inflation, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and pressures on Chinese exports. Despite these challenges, the actual effective exchange rate remains low, which may mitigate some impacts. In the long term, a dual-directional fluctuation is expected, with the central bank aiming to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable level. Companies are advised to focus on their core businesses and utilize hedging tools to manage risks [6][7][8].