Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Continue to hold [1] Core Viewpoints - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted today. The central bank's press conference on Monday and the outright repo have alleviated market concerns about regulatory and capital tightening. The June economic data has further highlighted the supply - demand contradiction, and the market's judgment on the fundamentals has been verified again. The Central Urban Work Conference in the afternoon focused on modernization, innovation, livability, and smart cities, and the expectation of shantytown renovation has also been dashed. The market sentiment has reversed, and the market may continue to rise in the short term, but after the sentiment is digested, the market may return to a volatile pattern [3] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, quickly rose after the release of economic data during the session, and strengthened throughout the day, closing higher across the board. In the open market, 69 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 273.5 billion yuan [1] Intraday News - On the 15th, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference that relevant departments are formulating measures to regulate market order, which is conducive to promoting the improvement of market supply - demand relations, price recovery, corporate profits, and economic structure adjustment [2] Market Judgment - The bearish factors in the bond market have basically been exhausted. The central bank's press conference and the outright repo have eased market concerns; the economic data has verified the market's judgment on fundamentals; the Central Urban Work Conference disappointed the market in terms of shantytown renovation expectations. The market sentiment has reversed, and it may continue to rise in the short term, but will return to a volatile pattern after the sentiment is digested [3] Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On July 15, 2025, compared with July 14, 2025, TS2509 rose 0.036 to 102.414, TF2509 rose 0.13 to 106.015, T2509 rose 0.19 to 108.885, and TL2509 rose 0.57 to 120.77 [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 324 to 124,685 hands, TF contract positions decreased by 2,605 to 206,300 hands, T contract positions decreased by 2,210 to 236,332 hands, and TL contract positions decreased by 276 to 152,088 hands [4] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) rose 0.0193 to 0.0192, TF basis (CTD) rose 0.0223 to 0.0428, T basis (CTD) fell 0.0301 to - 0.0004, and TL basis (CTD) fell 0.007 to 0.3404 [4] - **Transaction Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 767 to 32,348 hands, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 14,377 to 48,707 hands, T main contract trading volume decreased by 1,759 to 67,445 hands, and TL main contract trading volume decreased by 820 to 91,330 hands [4] - **Funding Rates and Changes**: DR001 rose 0.0813 to 1.424, DR007 rose 0.0642 to 1.536, and DR014 rose 0.0249 to 1.5609. DR001 trading volume decreased by 380.50451 billion yuan to 2,336.61307 billion yuan, DR007 trading volume increased by 78.7651 billion yuan to 1,063.5984 billion yuan, and DR014 trading volume increased by 2.2952 billion yuan to 110.983 billion yuan [4]