干散货海运行业研究框架
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干散货海运行业研究框架:潮起潮落,浪涌千帆
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-31 11:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the dry bulk shipping industry [10]. Core Insights - The dry bulk shipping industry is characterized as a cyclical sector driven by global trade, with a low concentration level (CR10 at 15.5%), indicating a fully competitive market where freight rates are determined by supply and demand dynamics [2][5][18]. Summary by Sections What is it? - The dry bulk shipping industry involves the transportation of bulk goods globally, primarily categorized into major bulk (iron ore, coal, grain) and minor bulk (bauxite, fertilizers, cement), with a volume ratio of 6:4. This sector accounts for a significant portion of global shipping, reflecting its cyclical nature [2][5][21]. How is it calculated? - In 2017, the demand for dry bulk shipping was primarily driven by major bulk goods, with a dynamic demand growth rate of 5.3%, outpacing the static cargo volume growth of 4.5%. The supply side saw a fleet growth of 2.2%, leading to a 70.2% increase in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) due to the demand-supply gap [6][17]. How to view it from an investment perspective? - Key tracking indicators include demand metrics (marginal changes in major bulk shipments), supply metrics (order book as a percentage of capacity), and price metrics (freight rate indices). Valuation methods suggest using Price-to-Earnings (PE) during upcycles and Price-to-Book (PB) during downcycles. Major investment targets focus on larger vessel companies for greater cyclical resilience and those with high spot market exposure for capturing immediate price fluctuations [7][18].