Core Viewpoint - The dry bulk shipping market is likely at the bottom of its economic cycle and may enter a phase of supply-demand rebalancing and price recovery in the coming year [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The demand growth for the dry bulk shipping market is expected to exceed supply growth by 2026/27, indicating a potential reversal in the supply-demand dynamics after years of weakness [1] - New ship orders have significantly declined, and the order book ratio is gently decreasing, suggesting that delivery volumes are likely to shrink gradually after 2026, with fleet growth potentially falling below 2% [2] Demand Side Improvement - From a macro perspective, global demand is driven by macro liquidity, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts historically correlating with improvements in global liquidity and demand [3] - Key drivers for demand in the next 2-3 years include iron ore, with significant contributions expected from the commencement of shipments from the Simandou project, as well as potential increases in soybean shipping due to production growth in Brazil and a possible US-China soybean agreement [3] Individual Stock Comparison - Most global dry bulk shipping companies show similar stock performance, with larger fleet sizes commanding a premium in market valuations [4] - Among A/H listed shipping companies, Haitong Development is expected to exhibit stronger elasticity compared to Pacific Shipping, making it a key focus [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the third quarter reached 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.5% year-on-year, but a significant rebound from 20 million yuan in the second quarter [2][7]. - The "301 Act" and China's countermeasures are expected to create a supply contraction benefit for bulk shipping, favoring Chinese shipowners. The dry bulk sector's order backlog has not significantly expanded, providing a foundation for a cyclical upturn. The imminent production of the West Simandou project, a major iron ore trade route, is anticipated to boost demand for dry bulk shipping by extending transport distances [2][12]. - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of recovery, with the company expected to benefit from fleet expansion and the recovery of the dry bulk shipping market. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 440 million, 1 billion, and 1.22 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23.5, 10.4, and 8.5, respectively [2][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, up 34.3% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, but up from 20 million yuan in Q2 [7][12]. - The operating costs were 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%, likely due to increased repair costs. The gross profit was 230 million yuan, with a gross margin of 18.7%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Market Outlook - The implementation of the "301 Act" and the production of the West Simandou project are expected to positively impact the bulk shipping market. The supply contraction from the high costs associated with "U.S.-related" vessels is likely to benefit Chinese shipowners [12]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is anticipated to see a recovery, with the company expected to leverage its expanding fleet and the improving market conditions to enhance profitability [12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 440 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.22 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.5, 10.4, and 8.5 [12].

行业研究丨深度报告丨海运 [Table_Title] 潮起潮落，浪涌千帆 ——干散货海运行业研究框架 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 干散货海运行业是源于全球贸易往来，使用干散货船在全球范围内进行国际干散货整船运输的 海运板块，从货运量看占海运行业半壁江山，其货种主要可分为大宗和小宗散货，货量比为 6:4， 商业模式为市场撮合签订租船合同。从格局和产业链看，行业服务于全球工业原材料加工， CR10 仅 15.5%，为完全竞争市场，运价由供需差决定，展现出"强周期，雨打萍"的特征。 本篇作为干散货海运行业第一篇系列文，依次解答 1）是什么，低集中度的顺周期行业；2）怎 么算，以 2017 年为例具体测算；3）如何看，投资维度上梳理跟踪指标、估值方法和全球标的。 [Table_Summary2] 【是什么】干散货海运：需求外生供给刚性，低集中度的顺周期行业 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 魏爱晓 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 36 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index increased due to rising freight rates across all vessel categories, indicating a positive trend in the dry bulk shipping market [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 42 points to 1465 points, marking a 3% increase [1] - The Capesize vessel index increased by 10 points or approximately 0.6% to 1664 points, ending a 17-day decline [1] - The Panamax vessel index surged by 102 points or 6.3% to 1723 points, reaching its highest level since July 31 of the previous year [1] - The Supramax vessel index climbed by 31 points or 2.7% to 1182 points [1] Group 2: Daily Earnings - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels increased by $84 to $13,799 [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $917 to $15,507 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index has declined due to pressure from lower Capesize vessel rates, reaching its lowest level since June 2 [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 8 points to 1423 points, a decrease of 0.6% [1] - The Capesize Index dropped by 97 points or approximately 5.5%, settling at 1654 points, marking its 17th consecutive day of decline [1] - Daily earnings for Capesize vessels decreased by $806 to $13,715 [1] Group 2: Other Vessel Types - The Panamax Index increased by 52 points or 2.5%, reaching 1621 points, the highest level since August 7 of the previous year [1] - Daily earnings for Panamax vessels rose by $469 to $14,590 [1] - The Supramax Index saw an increase of 26 points or 2.3%, reaching 1151 points [1]