Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second longest in history, with ongoing stalemate over healthcare subsidies [1] - President Trump is expected to travel to Asia soon, and lawmakers believe the shutdown may extend into November, potentially surpassing the previous record of 35 days during Trump's first term [1] - Senate Republicans are firm in their refusal to negotiate with Democrats, who are demanding relief for 22 million Americans facing rising healthcare costs as a condition for reopening the government [1][2] Economic Impact - The economic damage from the shutdown is expected to deepen, with federal employees missing their first full paycheck this Friday [3] - The White House warns that unconventional accounting methods may not suffice to continue military pay and prevent federal food assistance from running out next month [3] - Bloomberg's chief U.S. economist predicts a slight temporary rise in unemployment due to the shutdown, but it will return to 4.3% once the government reopens [3] Legislative Dynamics - House Republicans have not met since September 19, with Speaker Johnson planning to keep them away from Congress throughout October as long as the shutdown continues [3] - Johnson stated there is nothing to negotiate, and any discussions regarding upcoming subsidies may occur at the end of the year [4][5] - The White House has threatened to punish Democrats by cutting federal projects in Democratic-majority states, with $28 billion in projects already canceled or postponed [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown, now in its 15th day, is likely to extend into November, with increasing pressure on lawmakers to reach a resolution as the Thanksgiving travel season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Duration and Impacts - Analysts have raised their predictions for the duration of the government shutdown, suggesting it could last at least until November 4, due to a lack of negotiation or compromise between parties [2][3]. - The economic cost of the shutdown is significant, with estimates suggesting it could be costing the U.S. economy up to $15 billion per day [2][3]. - If the shutdown continues into mid-November, it could become the longest in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 34 days set in 2018 [5]. Group 2: Legislative and Political Dynamics - There is a growing consensus that the need for farmer relief and healthcare subsidy extensions will force Republicans and Democrats to negotiate [3][4]. - The end of October marks critical deadlines related to military pay and healthcare enrollment, which may act as a catalyst for negotiations [4][5]. - The potential impact on the Thanksgiving travel season is a significant concern, with warnings of increased flight cancellations and delays if the shutdown persists [5].