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三峡能源(600905):装机规模持续扩张发电效率及电价制约业绩表现
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 02:30
Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 14.736 billion yuan, down 2.19% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.815 billion yuan, down 5.48%, slightly below expectations [1] - The installed capacity of wind and solar power continued to grow, but the utilization hours decreased, leading to a slowdown in growth rates for wind and solar generation [1] - The average on-grid electricity price faced pressure due to changes in electricity structure and increased market transactions, resulting in a decline in revenue from wind and solar segments [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved a total power generation of 39.314 billion kWh, an increase of 8.85% year-on-year, with wind power generation at 25.061 billion kWh (up 8.69%) and solar power generation at 13.911 billion kWh (up 10.25%) [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company was 381 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 9.89% year-on-year, with wind power price at 410 yuan/MWh (down 9.97%) and solar power price at 328 yuan/MWh (down 11.90%) [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 1.62% to 8.247 billion yuan, indicating stable cash flow performance despite profit decline [2] Group 2: Capacity and Utilization - The company added 2.1807 million kW of new installed capacity in 1H25, with wind power contributing 0.5381 million kW and solar power contributing 1.6426 million kW [1] - As of mid-2025, the cumulative installed capacity reached 22.9702 million kW for wind power and 25.9055 million kW for solar power [1] - The average utilization hours for wind power decreased by 97 hours to 1,146 hours, while solar power utilization hours decreased by 96 hours to 597 hours [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 6.383 billion yuan, 7.409 billion yuan, and 8.093 billion yuan, down from previous estimates [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19, 16, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]