证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 风险提示：政策变动风险，市场机制完善不及预期的风险，并网消纳风险，下游 需求不如预期，原材料价格上涨超预期等。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 储能的结构性需求确立，经济性加速兑现，推动储能 行业景气度继续维持高位 第一创业证券研究所 第 1 页 共 7 页 核心观点： 新能源发电并网比例的迅速提高使储能从"可选项"变为"必选项"。以欧 盟为例，随着新能源发电占比达到 28.5%，出现了一系列问题：电价波动与 "负电价"问题；弃风弃光现象频发；系统惯量与频率质量承压；配电网承 载能力不足等。这些问题的共性根因有：时间错配；空间错配；同步机组退 出现象与系统惯量供给缺口；市场与规制配套不到位等。据 ENTSO-E 测算， 在欧盟层面，如果到 2030 年前额外配置约 56GW 储能，可将系统弃风弃光减 少约 30TWh/年，年度系统成本降低 80 亿欧元，每年减少约 1900 万吨二氧化 碳排放量。 分析师：郭强 电力系统的储能配套建设分为两 ...

央视网消息（焦点访谈）：这个国庆假期，正是放松身心的好时节。秋高气爽，温度适宜，也是适合出游的好时候。说到温度，今年夏天的闷热相信大 家都有实实在在的体感，一些地方甚至超过了40℃，当然用电量也是一再飙升。不过，虽然用电量不断"破纪录"，却并没有限电，更不会拉闸。极端高温直 接"烤"验了支撑系统的稳定与安全，这背后又有什么"硬核操作"呢？ 今年夏天，高温来得早、持续久、强度大。高温地图上红彤彤的一片，真是火辣辣的"烤"验。 天儿热，人恨不得一直待在空调房里，用电负荷自然也是蹭蹭地涨。最高峰是7月16日那天，全国的用电负荷史无前例突破了15亿千瓦。 中电联电力发展研究院能源研究部主任韩超："比如家庭常用的40瓦照明灯具，15.08亿的最大负荷就相当于接近380亿盏这样的照明灯，同时点亮的效 果。" 380亿盏灯同时点亮，大约相当于全国每人同时点着27盏灯，这可真够壮观的。 如果一天说服力不够，我们把时间线拉长到一个月来看看。记者查询了一下国家能源局发布的数据，又发现一个历史纪录：7月，我国单月用电量首次 突破1万亿千瓦时大关，同比增长8.6%，这也刷新了世界纪录。那么，这1万亿千瓦时又是什么概念呢？ 韩超："比 ...

Core Insights - Yunnan Province has achieved sufficient electricity supply this year, with a significant increase in electricity exports, indicating a shift in the power supply landscape [1][2][3] Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand - Yunnan's electricity supply is robust, with no occurrences of electricity shortages as seen in previous years, attributed to favorable water conditions and improved coal and water storage levels [2] - The province's electricity generation has steadily increased, particularly benefiting large industrial consumers like aluminum production, which has returned to full capacity [2] - Yunnan is expected to send 1,692 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to Guangdong and Guangxi in 2025, an increase of 240 billion kilowatt-hours from previous years [3] Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - Renewable energy generation has surpassed thermal power, becoming the second-largest source of electricity in Yunnan, following hydropower [4][5] - In the first half of 2024, Yunnan added 86 new renewable energy projects, increasing installed capacity by 6.64 million kilowatts, with total renewable capacity exceeding 40 million kilowatts [4][5] - The province's wind and solar resources are substantial, with potential for 20 million kilowatts of wind and 60 million kilowatts of solar projects [5] Group 3: Integrated Power Development - Yunnan is promoting an integrated development model of "wind, solar, hydro, thermal, and storage" to address the volatility of hydropower and enhance energy security [6][7] - The province has increased coal and water storage levels, ensuring thermal power plants operate at full capacity during dry periods, with thermal generation rising by 31.1% in early 2023 [6][7] - New hydropower projects are being expedited, with significant approvals and construction efforts underway to expand overall generation capacity [7]

Group 1 - The battery sector has seen significant gains, with Yiwei Lithium Energy rising over 4% and CATL increasing more than 2%, driven by policy support, stabilized supply chain prices, and recovering demand [1] - The Energy Storage Battery ETF (159566) has increased by over 93% since April 9, indicating strong market interest in the energy storage sector [1] - The ETF has attracted a net inflow of 1.242 billion yuan over the past 20 days, bringing its total size to 1.644 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF product focused on the energy storage industry [1] Group 2 - The China lithium battery industry chain investment is expected to grow rapidly from January to August 2025, with solid-state batteries becoming the hottest investment track in the lithium battery sector [1] - Since September, the core logic of the energy storage industry has begun to unfold, primarily due to unexpected growth in industry bidding data in August, alleviating concerns about the sustainability of the market's current boom [2] - There remains a fundamental underestimation of the energy storage sector's profitability improvement and the increasing importance of energy storage in renewable energy generation, indicating a significant expectation gap for demand growth in the coming year [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In August, the electricity consumption growth rate in the secondary industry increased, contributing the largest increment to total electricity consumption, accounting for 59% of the total increase [3][7] - The total electricity consumption in August reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3][6] - The manufacturing sector saw a record monthly growth rate for the year, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing electricity consumption growing by 9.1%, surpassing the average manufacturing growth rate by approximately 4.6 percentage points [3][7] Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: August Secondary Industry Consumption Growth - The total electricity consumption in August was 10,154 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3][6] - The first industry consumed 164 billion kWh (9.7% growth), the second industry consumed 5,981 billion kWh (5.0% growth), the third industry consumed 2,046 billion kWh (7.2% growth), and residential consumption was 1,963 billion kWh (2.4% growth) [3][8] - The secondary industry contributed the most to the total electricity consumption increase, with a significant growth in manufacturing, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing [6][7] 2. Gas: Supply and Demand Stability - Global gas prices have shown narrow fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu, a weekly increase of 0.17% [16][19] - The LNG national ex-factory price was 4,016 yuan/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.07% [16][36] - The report suggests a positive outlook for city gas companies due to cost reductions and improved profitability [38] 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility and environmental protection sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, while the electric equipment sector outperformed [40][42] 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights recent government initiatives aimed at promoting high-quality development in energy equipment, focusing on enhancing the efficiency of energy conversion equipment and advancing renewable energy technologies [49] - Key announcements from companies include significant contract wins and strategic investments aimed at enhancing operational capabilities and market positioning [50]

Group 1 - The electric equipment and new energy sector increased by 3.86% this week, ranking first in terms of growth, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11 points, up 8.02 points, with a growth rate of 0.21%, and a total transaction volume of 49,582.82 billion [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209 points, up 138.13 points, with a growth rate of 1.06%, and a total transaction volume of 65,023.74 billion [1][2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3151.53 points, up 60.53 points, with a growth rate of 1.96%, and a total transaction volume of 30,832.05 billion [1][2] - The electric equipment index closed at 9749.37 points, up 362.57 points, with a growth rate of 3.86%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2] Group 2 - On September 23, 2025, the new Wanjie M7 and Shangjie H5 were officially launched, offering 12 configurations with prices ranging from 279,800 to 379,800 yuan [3] - The Wanjie M7 features two power versions, with a maximum CLTC comprehensive range of 1625 km and a pure electric range of 315 km [3] - The Shangjie H5 offers 6 models with similar power options, priced between 159,800 and 199,800 yuan [3] Group 3 - As of August 2025, the newly installed solar power capacity increased by 230.61 GW year-on-year, representing a growth of 64.73% [4] - In August, the newly installed solar power capacity was 7.36 GW, showing a year-on-year decrease of 55.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.33% [4] Group 4 - In August 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [5] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative electricity consumption was 68,788 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [5] - The electricity consumption by the primary industry was 1,012 billion kWh, up 10.6% year-on-year, while the secondary industry consumed 43,386 billion kWh, up 3.1% year-on-year [5] - The electricity consumption by the tertiary industry was 13,297 billion kWh, up 7.7% year-on-year, and residential electricity consumption was 11,094 billion kWh, up 6.6% year-on-year [5]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration released national electricity industry statistics for January to August, showing a cumulative installed power generation capacity of 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [1][2] - Solar power generation capacity reached 1.12 billion kilowatts, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 48.5%, while wind power capacity increased by 22.1% to 580 million kilowatts [1][2] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 223 hours compared to the same period last year, totaling 2105 hours [1][2] Installed Capacity Breakdown - Total installed capacity: 3.69379 million kilowatts, up 18.0% year-on-year [2] - Hydropower: 442.19 million kilowatts, up 3.2% [2] - Thermal power: 1494.36 million kilowatts, data not specified [2] - Nuclear power: 60.94 million kilowatts, up 4.9% [2] - Wind power: 579.01 million kilowatts, up 22.1% [2] - Solar power: 1117.23 million kilowatts, up 48.5% [2] Energy Consumption and Investment - National coal consumption rate for power supply: 304.6 grams per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 1.5% [2] - Total heat supply: 392.706 million megajoules, with a slight increase of 0.05% [2] - Total coal consumption for heat supply: 23.089 million tons, down 1.3% [2] - Cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment: 2105 hours, down 223 hours [2] - Power engineering investment completed: 499.2 billion yuan, an increase of 0.5% [2] - Grid engineering investment completed: 379.6 billion yuan, up 14% [2] - New installed power generation capacity: 345.16 million kilowatts, with significant contributions from solar and wind power [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The public utility and environmental sectors have shown underperformance in the recent market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the public utility index down 2.18%, and the environmental index down 1.42% [2][4]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.44%, while the public utility index fell by 2.18% and the environmental index dropped by 1.42%, resulting in relative weekly returns of -1.73% and -0.97% respectively [2]. - Among the 31 primary industry sectors classified by Shenwan, public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 24th and 21st in terms of performance [2]. - In the electricity sector, thermal power decreased by 3.95%, hydropower by 2.75%, and new energy generation by 2.58%. Conversely, the gas sector saw an increase of 1.53% [2]. Important Events - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the industrial power generation in August reached 9,363 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. From January to August, the total was 64,193 billion kWh, up 1.5% year-on-year [2]. - In August, the growth rate of industrial wind power accelerated, while hydropower saw a larger decline, and the growth rates of thermal, nuclear, and solar power generation slowed down [2]. - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and Energy Bureau released a plan to deepen the market-oriented reform of new energy grid connection prices, with existing project prices set at 0.453 yuan/kWh and new projects categorized into offshore wind, other wind, and solar power [2]. Specialized Research - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a plan for the large-scale construction of new energy storage from 2025 to 2027, emphasizing the need for a pricing mechanism for new energy storage [3]. - Various provinces have introduced capacity pricing or compensation policies for new energy storage projects, with standards ranging from 100 to 330 yuan/kW·year [3]. - Investment strategies in the public utility sector include recommendations for major thermal power companies and new energy leaders, as well as stable nuclear power operators [4]. Investment Strategy - In the public utility sector, coal and electricity prices are expected to decline simultaneously, maintaining reasonable profitability for thermal power, with recommendations for major companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [4]. - Continuous government support for new energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability, with recommendations for leading companies in the new energy sector [4]. - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with improved free cash flow, suggesting investment opportunities in the environmental sector [4].

Group 1 - Xinjiang's total installed power capacity has surpassed 200 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for approximately 60%, making it the largest power source in the region [1] - Hami is the first million-kilowatt wind power base in Xinjiang, featuring nearly 8,000 wind turbines that have been upgraded over 15 years, with the latest 9-megawatt turbine capable of generating significant energy [3] - Xinjiang experiences over 300 days a year where photovoltaic power stations can operate effectively for more than 6 hours, with a 2.58 square meter solar panel generating enough energy to run a 1.5-horsepower air conditioner for 4 hours [5] Group 2 - A solar thermal energy storage matrix, consisting of 264,000 mirrors, captures solar energy during the day and converts it into electricity at night, enabling 24-hour power generation [7] - The Fukang pumped storage power station, the first of its kind in Northwest China, can sustain power generation for 6 hours and meets the annual electricity needs of 2 million households [9] - The Balykunchu converter station serves as the starting point for electricity transmission from Xinjiang to Chongqing, with 70% of the electricity being clean energy, significantly reducing coal consumption and emissions [11] Group 3 - Since 2010, Xinjiang has established five external power transmission channels, exporting over 950 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to 22 provinces, showcasing the region's potential for green development [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing policy efforts to regulate energy consumption in the polysilicon sector, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of high-energy-consuming production capacities and optimize the supply chain [1][14][15] - The offshore wind power sector is projected to see significant growth, with an average annual installation capacity expected to exceed 20GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][18] - The hydrogen energy sector is witnessing substantial investment, with a notable project in Xinjiang valued at 44.5 billion yuan, focusing on green hydrogen production [3][20] - The report emphasizes the increasing interest in lithium iron phosphate batteries among international automakers, indicating a shift in the electric vehicle battery market [4][31][32] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation - **Photovoltaics**: The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon energy consumption, aiming for stricter energy limits that are below the current industry average [1][14][15] - **Wind Power & Grid**: The report discusses the environmental impact assessment for a major offshore wind project in Qingdao, indicating a growing demand for subsea cables and foundations [2][16][18] - **Hydrogen & Energy Storage**: A significant green hydrogen project has been initiated, with a focus on integrating solar energy for hydrogen production [3][20][21] 2. New Energy Vehicles - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Supply**: A supply agreement has been established between Longpan Technology and CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathodes, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing profitability through international sales [4][31][32] 3. Price Dynamics in the Photovoltaic Industry - The report provides insights into the price fluctuations of polysilicon and solar cells, reflecting the current market trends and potential impacts on the supply chain [34][35] 4. Weekly News Highlights - The report summarizes key developments in the new energy sector, including strategic partnerships and significant project announcements that could influence market dynamics [37][41][43]