Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of China's economy from real estate to strategic emerging industries, highlighting the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in 2025, which is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 5% [1][2][14]. Economic Transition - The share of real estate and its industrial chain in China's economy has decreased from 18% in 2020 to an estimated 10%-11% in 2024, while the share of strategic emerging industries has increased from 11.7% to 14.1% during the same period [1][2]. - The real estate sector has experienced a significant decline, with sales area dropping from a peak of 1.79 billion square meters in 2021 to 970 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of over 45% [2]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to focus more on the broad price system, with structural monetary policy tools likely to see significant use, such as lowering interest rates on structural monetary policy tools and expanding the use of re-lending tools [3][4]. - The average wealth effect elasticity of housing prices is estimated at 0.09, while that of stock prices is around 0.02, indicating that asset price stabilization will gradually support consumer spending [4]. Fiscal Policy Measures - Fiscal policy is anticipated to be moderately expansionary, aimed at enhancing social security to improve residents' marginal consumption propensity and addressing debt issues while expanding investment [7][14]. - The scale of fiscal tools for 2025 is projected to increase, with significant allocations for infrastructure, housing, and technology innovation [11]. Economic Growth Projections - The economic growth in 2025 is expected to exhibit a "U" shape, with a recovery in the second half of the year as industrial inventory and profit cycles approach a bottom [14]. - Key industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting, transportation equipment manufacturing, and textiles are currently showing strong production and financial indicators [14].