证券代码：600859 证券简称：王府井 编号：临 2025－053 （二）业绩预告情况 利润为 6,400 万元到 9,500 万元，与上年同期相比，预计减少 19,811 万元到 万元，与上年同期相比，预计减少 28,838 万元到 29,838 万元。 （三）本次业绩预告未经注册会计师审计。 重要内容提示： ? 王府井集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实现 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 6,400 万元到 9,500 万元，与上年同期相比，预计 减少 19,811 万元到 22,911 万元，同比减少 67%到 78%。 ? 扣除非经常性损益事项后，公司预计归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润为 2,200 万元到 3,200 万元，与上年同期相比，预计减少 28,838 万元到 29,838 万元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 王府井集团股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 二、上年同期业绩情况 （一）归属于上市公司股东的净利润：29,311 万元 ...

今年，江苏省城市足球联赛（以下简称"苏超"）火爆出圈，引发大家广泛关注，包括家乡在的江苏南通 海门的野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士。近期，他回到家乡，在南通主场观看了南通队对战宿迁队的比 赛。 野村集团微信公众号就此邀请陆挺博士分享他 现场观看"苏超"比赛的心得 ，以及从经济学家的角度 对"苏超"的深入观察和分析。在分享中陆挺博士高度评价了"苏超"的积极意义，具体请见以下访谈全 文。文中所有照片均由陆挺博士拍摄，感谢陆博的图片支持和精彩分享 。 陆挺博士观点集锦 （比赛现场）给我印象最深刻的，是双方球员都非常认真地参与比赛，从头到尾没有松懈的时 候。当地组织工作也不错，井然有序。 经济发展到一定阶段，民众就会有这样的消费娱乐需求，以供给来拉动需求，"苏超"是一个很 好的例子。 江苏各地级市的经济发展水平比较平衡，都有拿得出手的产业和企业，都有自己独特的历史文 化传承，球迷因为有各自地域的归属感，热情也会很高，有持续性。 "苏超"的成功在相当大的程度上是文旅产业的成功。江苏省政府不仅有创意，还有非常好的格 局。 "苏超"的成功有着非常深刻的意义，"苏超"实际上再一次印证了我国过去几十年改革成功的一 些经验。 中国 ...

中金研究 6 月 CPI 同比由负转正，主要受工业消费品价格回升带动，除国际原油和贵金属价格上涨外，反 " 内卷 " 打压 " 价格战 " 、促消费政策提振，汽车、家电价 格同比改善， PPI 同比中汽车制造、光伏、锂电池价格同比均改善。但 PPI 同比跌幅进一步走扩、环比连续第 7 个月负增，供过于求、需求不足仍是主要 矛盾。向前看，反 " 内卷式 " 竞争拉开序幕，提振消费和纠正无序同质竞争在供需两端同时发力，有望助益物价回升。 点击小程序查看报告原文 1. 工业消费品价格回升助力CPI同比转正 6月CPI同比结束连续四个月的负增，由上月的-0.1%转为0.1%，主要受工业消费品价格的拉动，能源与核心商品同比均改善，后者带动核心CPI同比升至 14个月新高的0.7%（5月为0.6%）。 ► 肉价弱，果蔬强，食品通胀微升。 CPI食品价格同比下降-0.3%，比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，受生猪供给持续释放和去产能推进，猪肉价格同比由 上月的上涨3.1%转为下降8.5%，边际拖累CPI同比0.14ppt；因部分地区高温天气和供应地调整，应季蔬菜价格同比较上月-8.3%大幅收窄至-0.4%，鲜果价 格同比亦由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain an optimistic trend in the short term, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with structural opportunities likely to emerge continuously [2][6]. Short-term Events and Long-term Logic - Recent market highs are driven by visible short-term events and overlooked long-term logic, with low inflation levels indicating core issues of insufficient demand, while core CPI excluding energy and food remains relatively high [4][5]. - Improved market sentiment is linked to positive data from the National Bureau of Statistics, reflecting a recovery in the consumption market and investment environment, which boosts market confidence [4][5]. Market Outlook - Fund companies believe that the overall optimistic pattern of the A-share market is likely to continue, relying on the synergy of fundamentals and policies [7][8]. - Current market valuations have recovered from last year's lows but remain relatively cheap, with expectations of continued market activity driven by policy support and liquidity [7][8]. Structural Opportunities - Structural opportunities are expected to emerge, particularly in technology sectors, with a focus on industries like military, new energy, and semiconductor [10]. - Investment strategies should consider policy beneficiaries, growth recovery opportunities, and defensive value configurations, such as high-dividend bank stocks [10][11]. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has seen significant gains, driven by increased allocation from incremental funds, particularly insurance capital, and the favorable PB-ROE gap [11]. - The low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of bank stocks due to their high dividend yields, aligning with the needs of allocation-type funds [11].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the external uncertainty from tariffs is expected to gradually spread, with the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" 90-day deadline approaching, suggesting that most economies may struggle to resolve tariff issues within this timeframe [4][13][15] - The domestic policy is anticipated to remain proactive yet restrained, with the need to maintain sufficient policy space to address potential extreme risk scenarios while avoiding excessive short-term stimulus that could disrupt long-term goals [30][32][38] Group 2 - The report highlights that the improvement in domestic demand is a key driver for economic and corporate profit recovery, with expectations that consumer confidence will continue to rise due to the rebound in residents' income and wealth effects [77][78][83] - The real estate sector is showing signs of gradual recovery, with new home sales and land transaction data improving, indicating a potential positive impact on the overall economy [83][88][91] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the capital market's liquidity remains high, with a significant number of stocks experiencing substantial gains, which has fostered a strong investment sentiment among individual investors [116][122][134] - The importance of the equity market is underscored by ongoing policy support aimed at enhancing residents' property income and maintaining market stability [136]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing digital transformation and AI implementation in the aluminum industry, with a focus on enhancing industrial intelligence and efficiency in production [1] - The report indicates that the demand for tin is expected to increase due to the driving forces of AI and the new energy industry, while global tin resource reserves are limited to only 14.8 years, exacerbated by the production halt in Myanmar [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry is showing resilience driven by new demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and low-altitude economy, while black metals are under pressure due to a sluggish real estate market [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF tracks the non-ferrous mining index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in non-ferrous metal mining and processing in the A-share market [2] - This index is characterized by strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively representing market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry [2]

多位专家向记者表示，空调行业正处于新旧动能转换的关键窗口期，精细化运营、产品力升级与渠道体 系重构将成为企业未来竞争的核心支点。 在此背景下，厂商正加速转型，从产品端来看，节能、健康、智能化正成为标配。 珠海格力电器（000651）股份有限公司相关负责人对《证券日报》记者表示："当前消费者选购空调更 加注重细节和体验，节能、舒适等功能需求凸显。除'风不吹人'系列长期热销外，公司主推的'AI节能 王子'也因节能、高舒适性等优势，受到市场广泛认可。" 6月份以来，在以旧换新政策支持以及各地持续高温背景下，空调消费持续升温，头部企业加快排产节 奏。 有安徽经销商对记者表示："6月份至今，空调销量翻了不止一番，好多型号已经清空。消费者预约安装 需排队，等待3天是常态。"另据海信家电（000921）集团股份有限公司空调相关负责人透露，目前已满 负荷生产，部分型号出现结构性缺货。 苏宁易购数据显示，6月下旬至7月3日，全国新一级能效空调销售同比增长82%。美的集团（000333） 股份有限公司(以下简称"美的集团")发布的数据显示，5月1日至7月6日，美的集团空调安装量同比增长 37.09%。 空调出口方面，美的集团相关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the recent performance of the A-share market has been stronger than expected, driven by optimism regarding the transition from old to new economic drivers, particularly in technology and consumption sectors [1][11]. - The article highlights that the recent CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while PPI fell by 3.6%, indicating a divergence in inflation trends that could impact market sentiment [3][6]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with major banks reaching historical highs, contributing to the market's fluctuations around the 3500-point mark [11][12]. Group 2 - The article discusses the cautious outlook from Citigroup regarding inflation trends, emphasizing the need for more policy actions to stabilize the economy [9]. - It notes that the supply-side reforms are showing mixed results across different industries, with automotive PPI stabilizing while other sectors like black metals are experiencing negative trends [6][9]. - The article mentions that the upcoming political meetings and policy announcements will be critical for market direction and investor sentiment [9][13]. Group 3 - The article reports significant earnings growth projections for several companies, with estimates indicating a net profit increase of 126% to 148% for Yonghe Shares and a staggering 2443% to 2835% for Shenda Shares, driven by rising product prices [20]. - It highlights the active performance of the entertainment sector, particularly with the upcoming release of a popular sequel, which has positively influenced related stocks [12][20]. - The article also notes the recent developments in smart parking technology by BYD, marking a significant advancement in the automotive sector [18].

2025 年 07 月 09 日 叙事变了！新旧动能转换四阶段框架 此前我们反复强调，对于下半年市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由 意外事件导致中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代 表的核心资产占优），类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是 高股息为核心的杠铃策略），类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震 荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科技"跷跷板"双轮动）。其中，类比 2019 年是目前在新旧动能转换背景下，最值得探讨的路径。 而类比 2019 年，核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上 呈现消费+科技"跷跷板"双轮动。目前看，大盘指数始终比预期得要强，背 后的原因在于中长期悲观问题出现乐观改善，核心指向是对于新旧动能转 换的信心不断增强。从"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"+"国补+新消费支撑社 零修复"+"出口出海维持韧性"+"房地产负面影响逐渐趋于尾声"使得市场 逐渐意识到新旧动能转换定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。在结 构上 ...

2025 年 07 月 06 日 最佳的选择："创" 本周上证指数涨 1.40%一度逼近 3500 点，周五出现明显冲高回落，创业板指涨 1.50%，恒 生指数跌 1.52%，本周全 A 日均交易额 14414 亿，环比上周有所下降，价值依然表现逊于成 长风格，围绕有产业逻辑的小盘成长（科创）+低估值大盘成长（创业板指）均有不错表现， 说明风险偏好抬升是定价核心矛盾，这点符合我们在周报《躁动的心和冷静的手》判断：当 前虽沪指三连阳突破年内新高，我们反复强调"大盘指数表现较强"，但眼下不急于对大盘 指数"牛不牛"下判断，"找准结构和方向"依然是最重要的。面向 7 月 4 日-9 日美特朗普 重新调整关税政策以及大漂亮法案落地，若可以看到关税战从全球范围内总体朝着"谈成" 的方向推进，结合大漂亮法案暗示美财政支出扩张，这有助于风险偏好进一步提升，科技(科 创)依然是占优的，而低估值大盘成长（创业板指）或将成为最为受益的方向。 1、从国内大类资产上看：大盘表现较强背后对应的是主动信贷的扩张，事实上，当前 A 股 市场的强势，结合债券市场虽然经历波折但利率最终回归低位，同时人民币兑一篮子货币汇 率持续走低，主要的驱动 ...