2026 年 02 月 28 日 内 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务- , 消费"升" "打破共识" 系列之一 本篇是"打破共识"系列首篇。市场通常认为，消费会持续受累于地产下行，现实并非如此；国际经 验显示，地产调整后半程，消费倾向会率先出现趋势性抬升，当前中国或正处于上述"拐点"。 国际经验显示，消费倾向在房地产拐点前后呈"U 型"特征、居民消费早于收入改善。 ● 房地产行业景气变化，对经济的影响大致可归结为三种效应："收入效应"、"财富效应"与"挤出 效应"。"收入效应"体现为，房地 ...

根据瑞银估算及各公司披露数据，韩国市场平均贡献奢侈品集团集团销售额的中至高个位数百分比（MSD至HSD%）。 当韩国股市（KOSPI）年内狂飙之后，一场财富效应正悄然重塑亚洲奢侈品消费版图。 2月27日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银在最新研报中指出，韩国奢侈品需求正出现明显拐点——百货商店同店销售增速在2025年第四季度加速至 15%，中国游客入境激增，叠加韩元相对人民币贬值带来的价格套利窗口，三重驱动力共振之下，韩国市场有望成为欧洲奢侈品行业近期最重要 的边际增量来源。 研报指出，最关键的信号是： 这意味着在韩国市场有较高敞口的欧洲奢侈品公司，如爱马仕、盟可睐、普拉达和博柏利，有望成为主要受益者。 目前，欧洲奢侈品板块的估值已回落至历史相对估值区间的底部，任何确认需求持续改善的消息都可能推动该板块估值重估。 韩国消费者：奢侈品行业不可忽视的战略棋子 研报指出，韩国消费者在全球奢侈品版图中占据独特地位。 瑞银表示，更重要的是，韩国消费者被业界公认为"高度成熟、引领时尚潮流"，其消费趋势对整个亚洲区域具有显著的风向标意义。 尤其在当前后疫情时代奢侈品需求疲软的背景下，韩国市场因在疫情期间未经历严格封控，得以保持相对独 ...

高盛认为，目前美国经济面临的最大风险实际上可能是一场股市回调。 诚然，Mei写道，没有任何单一因素会将经济推入衰退，除非该因素非常巨大或由多重风险导致，例如 在股市遭到抛售之外，还伴随着AI驱动的就业替代和有限的生产力增长。他说，在这种情况下，美联 储可能会降息。 但美国经济的大部分领域已经面临着被称为"K型"经济现象中的衰退压力，即收入最高的消费者继续消 费，而收入最低的群体则在为购买必需品而挣扎。"股市回调将把我们预期的财富效应提振转变为2026 年下半年的消费拖累，"Mei写道。 收入最高的消费者目前正支撑着美国经济。根据穆迪分析的数据，虽然消费支出占美国经济的三分之 二，但前10%的消费者贡献了近一半的总支出。或许更令人担忧的是，在动荡的中期选举年，股市回调 可能显得尤为严峻。 根据Aptus Capital Advisors的数据，历史上的中期选举年平均会出现19%的年内跌幅。在华尔街，10% 或以上的下跌通常被定义为回调，而20%或以上的暴跌则被称为熊市。 例如，他写道，如果美股上半年出现10%的回调，可能会导致他的GDP预测值减少0.5个百分点，降至 2.0%。 更猛烈的股市回调造成的破坏甚至更 ...

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 社会服务 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2026年2月25日 2H25国内高端消费显著提升， 富人资产修复背景下有望延续增势 证券分析师： 姚婧 执业证书编号：S0210525060002 李天阳 执业证书编号：S0210525080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 高端消费市场整体企稳回暖，大中华区复苏动能强劲。 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 2025年下半年起，主要奢侈品集团在亚太区（剔除日本）的销售增速显著改善，LVMH、历峰等集团增速在连续7个 季度后首次转正。 中国区市场的改善已成为全球奢侈品集团业绩修复的关键变量，各大品牌普遍看好中国市场的长期 潜力。 国内高端商场零售额增速亦在下半年显著提升。 2025年恒隆地产内地商场租户零售额同比增长4%，日均客流 量创历史新高；太古地产旗下多数商场在下半年显著提速，其中上海兴业太古汇凭借标志性项目"路易号"拉动，零 售额大增49.6%。 Ø 财富效应驱动高端消费需求回升，高频指标印证修复。 • 富人资产增速、海南离岛免税数据、澳门博彩业数据、高档酒店数据等可做高端消费高频跟踪；二奢数据反映大 ...

宏 观 研 究 "K 型分化"的边际收敛 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) ——2025 年 Q4 美国 GDP 数据点评 本报告导读： 2025Q4 美国经济主要受政府关门拖累，总体韧性犹在，并展现出"K型分化"的收 敛迹象，这明显提升了"再通胀"的概率。关注白宫在推动替代性关税框架的过程 中，对企业关税转嫁行为的影响。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2025 年 Q4 美国经济：受政府关门拖累明显，但韧性犹在 美国经济四季度展现出"K 型分化"的收敛迹象 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.21 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 M2 增速：创新高的背后 2026.02.14 超级核心通胀压力仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent investment activities of Berkshire Hathaway in Pool Corporation, highlighting the challenges faced by the company and the broader implications for the U.S. economy, particularly in relation to consumer spending and market dynamics [2][10]. Group 1: Investment Activities - Berkshire Hathaway began investing in Pool Corporation in Q3 2024, acquiring 404,057 shares at an average price of approximately $345.95 [5]. - By Q4 2024, Berkshire increased its holdings by 48.17%, bringing the total to 598,689 shares [6]. - In Q1 2025, the stock price declined significantly, prompting Berkshire to increase its position by 144.53%, resulting in a total of 1,464,000 shares [7]. - The company continued to buy aggressively in Q2 2025, adding 1,994,885 shares, reaching a peak holding of 3,458,885 shares, representing 8.24% of Pool's total shares [7]. - However, in Q4 2025, Berkshire reduced its position by selling 390,000 shares, marking a shift in strategy as the stock price fell to an average of $259.34 [8][9]. Group 2: Pool Corporation's Financial Performance - Pool Corporation's Q4 2025 earnings report revealed revenues and earnings per share (EPS) below Wall Street expectations, leading to a significant stock sell-off [10]. - The company's net sales for 2025 were $5.289 billion, a decline from $5.311 billion in 2024, while net profit decreased by 6.4% to $406.4 million [11]. - Despite a slight improvement in gross margin, the overall financial health of Pool Corporation showed signs of deterioration, with operating cash flow dropping 44% to $365.9 million [12]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The struggles of Pool Corporation reflect broader economic vulnerabilities in the U.S., particularly in consumer spending patterns, where the top 10% of earners account for nearly 49% of total consumer spending [13]. - The article highlights a concerning trend where the bottom 80% of earners have seen their spending power stagnate, contributing to a fragile economic environment [13]. - The reliance on stock market performance to drive consumer spending among the wealthy raises concerns about the sustainability of this economic model, especially in light of potential market corrections [15].

"房价过高会降低消费需求"——这句话至多算说对了一小半。房价影响消费，既有挤出效应也有财富效 应，关键在于哪一方更强、处在哪个阶段。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 来源：董藩 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant recovery in the second-hand housing market in key cities of China in 2026, with transaction volumes increasing against seasonal trends and a decline in listings, suggesting a balance in supply and demand in the overall real estate market [1][2]. - In January, Shanghai recorded 22,834 second-hand housing transactions, a year-on-year increase of 24.18%, marking the highest volume for the same period in nearly five years. Beijing's second-hand residential transactions reached 15,000, maintaining above 15,000 for two consecutive months [1]. - Nationally, the second-hand housing market showed a recovery, with transaction areas in 13 key cities increasing by 16% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year in January [1]. Group 2 - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is primarily driven by price adjustments leading to "price for volume" strategies, with a notable rise in the proportion of lower-priced properties being sold [2]. - The decline in the total number of second-hand housing listings indicates a reduction in selling pressure, as the market seeks a new equilibrium with high-value properties being absorbed [2]. - The supportive policy environment and liquidity in the market, along with the wealth effect from rising stock and asset prices, are contributing to improved confidence in the real estate market, facilitating a gradual recovery [3].

Group 1: Market Recovery Signals - The second-hand housing market in key cities in China shows signs of recovery in 2026, with transaction volumes increasing during the traditional off-season and a continuous decline in listings, indicating a balance in supply and demand [1] - In January, Shanghai recorded 22,834 second-hand housing transactions, a year-on-year increase of 24.18%, marking the highest volume for the same period in nearly five years [1] - Beijing's second-hand residential transactions reached 15,000 units in January, maintaining above 15,000 for the second consecutive month since December [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is driven by price adjustments, with many properties being sold at lower prices, particularly older and smaller units [2] - In 2025, the proportion of second-hand homes in Shanghai priced below 3 million yuan has been rising, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards more affordable options [2] - The reduction in total listings of second-hand homes suggests a decrease in selling pressure, as high-value properties are being absorbed by the market [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Market Confidence - The Chinese government continues to implement supportive policies to stabilize the housing market, including extending tax rebates for home exchanges and structural interest rate cuts [2] - The improvement in stock market performance and the wealth effect from rising global asset prices have positively influenced real estate valuations, leading to increased demand for housing [3] - The current positive policy environment, ample liquidity, and inter-market asset price correlations are contributing to a marginal improvement in market expectations and a gradual recovery in transactions [3]

Group 1: Retail Market Overview - The total sales value of Hong Kong's retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1% year-on-year to HKD 380.5 billion last year [1] - Deloitte forecasts that retail sales in Hong Kong will grow nearly 8% year-on-year to approximately HKD 410 billion by 2026, driven by the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy [1] - The strengthening of the Renminbi is expected to increase the number of visitors to Hong Kong, contributing to a more optimistic market outlook [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Categories - The increase in outbound travel by Hong Kong residents has led to some consumption shifting to mainland China and overseas markets, although the strong Renminbi is anticipated to weaken the motivation for spending in mainland China [1] - Deloitte China expects that visitor spending in Hong Kong will continue to boost consumption in luxury goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and dining sectors this year [1] - Key retail categories expected to drive growth include jewelry and watches (19% increase), clothing and footwear (16% increase), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (11% increase), and department stores (10% increase) [1] Group 3: Events and Tourism Development - Deloitte China recommends that the Hong Kong government further deepen and expand the development of the events economy by supporting large-scale sports events, concerts, exhibitions, and international conferences to attract more visitors [2] - Utilizing the Kai Tak Sports Park and Kai Tak Cruise Terminal for more flagship events is suggested to enhance Hong Kong's international image and solidify its position as a tourism hub and convention city [2]