专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 少数派投资 上证指数的历史高点是2007年10月16日的6124.04点，至今已经过去了十八年了。股民基民一边看着美 国近20年的大牛市，一边对大A股的长牛翘首以盼，一等就是十八年。当年勇敢入市的年轻人，现在已 经两鬓斑白。如今中国股市集齐了五张王牌，有望推动本轮牛市创出历史新高。 一、利率降低 —— 凸显股票市场价值 中国十年期国债收益率1.9%，对比沪深300指数平均分红收益率2.5%，已经超过了长期国债收益。而上 市公司净利润中平均只有35%拿出来分红，利润的大头还留存在公司。对比一下银行理财年化收益 1.5%，一年期存款利率0.95%。股票变得很有吸引力。 对比一下美国市场，标普500指数的市盈率是25倍，分红收益率1.2%，美国十年期国债收益率4.14%。 美国当前是高利率，利率比中国高一倍多，分红收益率比中国低50%，市盈率还比中国高70%。中国股 票比美国股票更有性价比。 二、资金溢出 —— 大量资金缺少投向 过去二十年吸纳投资资金最多的是楼市。随着楼价见顶回落，楼市已经失去了吸纳投资资金的能力。相 对应的房地产信托，也没有了。 ...

格隆汇1月8日｜2025年铜价上涨令交易员喜悦，但2026年铜或将极易受到股市上涨的影响。彭博经济研 究指出，飙升的股价是财富效应的组成部分，支撑通胀和债券收益率，这可能代表了2026年工业金属的 双输情景。如果铜和股市持续上涨，通胀和债券收益率或将反弹，与特朗普政府的公开政策目标背道而 驰。2025年初，铜价约为4美元/磅，两度突破5.25美元后又跌破4.50美元，最后在年底收于5.7美元左 右。2026年铜价能否站稳6美元上方？如果股市保持韧性，彭博倾向于认为可以，但正常回调风险指向 4.50美元。 ...

资本市场的稳定发展离不开长期资金的注入。尹艳林表示，当前，国家鼓励保险资金、社保基金等参与 创业投资，为科技创新提供资金支持。科技创新需要长期资金来源，除国家创业投资引导基金外，也需 要社会资金投入，坚持"投早、投小、投硬科技"。 尹艳林认为，新质生产力加速培育壮大，将带动经济实现高质量发展，而经济向好又将进一步提升老百 姓的投资收益，从而形成良性发展循环。 同时，他也提醒广大投资者，要理性看待投资收益与风险的辩证关系。"承担一定的风险才会有相应的 收益。"尹艳林认为，"如果投资者看到经济发展前景可观，愿意承担适度风险并相信能获得合理回报， 那对于资本市场来说将是一个积极信号。"(记者 朱晓航) 截至2025年底，A股总市值超过120万亿元，投资者总数已接近2.5亿。如此庞大的股市规模，能否通 过"财富效应"有效提振消费？全国政协委员尹艳林在接受中国经济网《深谈》节目专访时回应，稳定股 市无疑会有利于增加居民财产性收入，更能增强市场信心，但他同时强调，"至于股市的财富效应有多 少能转化为消费或投资，关键在于转化过程。" 尹艳林引用国外消费理论指出，居民消费行为不取决于现期收入，而是取决于持久收入。增加持久收入 ...

摩通大根表示，11月零售轻微放缓，或部分由于11月底大埔宏福苑大火影响情绪。该行预计香港12月零 售销售录低至中单位数增长(意味轻微放缓)，因电子产品强劲升势或减退；12月入境旅客同比增幅轻微 放缓；大埔火灾持续影响消费情绪。不过，该行料零售消费续受股市楼市带来财富效应；及港元贬值所 支撑。该行维持对九置的建设性看法，评级"增持"，因有迹象显示非必需零售走出谷底。 九龙仓置业(01997)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.28%，报24.16港元，成交额2719.08万港元。 消息面上，1月2日，香港特区政府统计处发表最新的零售业销货额数字。2025年11月的零售业总销货价 值的临时估计为337亿港元，较2024年同月上升6.5%。2025年10月的零售业总销货价值的修订估计较 2024年同月上升6.9%。香港零售管理协会主席谢邱安仪预期，2026年上半年香港零售额持平，港人北 上仍然会持续，消费力不会有太大改变，未来希望吸引高消费客户，但需要时间带动。 ...

消息面上，1月2日，香港特区政府统计处发表最新的零售业销货额数字。2025年11月的零售业总销货价 值的临时估计为337亿港元，较2024年同月上升6.5%。2025年10月的零售业总销货价值的修订估计较 2024年同月上升6.9%。香港零售管理协会主席谢邱安仪预期，2026年上半年香港零售额持平，港人北 上仍然会持续，消费力不会有太大改变，未来希望吸引高消费客户，但需要时间带动。 摩通大根表示，11月零售轻微放缓，或部分由于11月底大埔宏福苑大火影响情绪。该行预计香港12月零 售销售录低至中单位数增长(意味轻微放缓)，因电子产品强劲升势或减退；12月入境旅客同比增幅轻微 放缓；大埔火灾持续影响消费情绪。不过，该行料零售消费续受股市楼市带来财富效应；及港元贬值所 支撑。该行维持对九置的建设性看法，评级"增持"，因有迹象显示非必需零售走出谷底。 智通财经APP获悉，九龙仓置业(01997)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.28%，报24.16港元，成交额2719.08万 港元。 ...

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

Group 1: Trade Surplus Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's goods trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion, marking the first time any country has surpassed the $1 trillion mark in trade surplus [2] - The strong export performance is driven by key categories such as electromechanical products, which account for approximately 59% of total exports, and new growth areas like electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which continue to see double-digit growth despite overseas tariff pressures [3][4] Group 2: Export and Import Dynamics - The import demand in 2025 is weak, with nearly zero growth (0.2%), contributing to the maximum trade surplus [4] - Many export enterprises are holding onto foreign currency earnings instead of converting them into RMB, leading to a "funds external circulation" phenomenon [5] - A portion of profits from manufacturing is being used to pay off debts rather than being reinvested domestically, indicating a trend towards deleveraging [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is highlighted as a profitable industry, with significant profits from exports that can cover costs associated with tariffs and logistics [5] - The distribution of wealth from the trade surplus is concentrated among leading technology firms and automated factories, contrasting with the declining value of real estate, which affects the perceived wealth of ordinary citizens [7] Group 4: Service Trade Developments - China's service trade has historically shown a significant deficit, but in 2025, the deficit narrowed to approximately $108 billion, a reduction of about 26% year-on-year [12][13] - Knowledge-intensive service trade constitutes about 38% of the total, with rapid growth in exports driven by international travel demand and foreign tourists spending in China [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The trade surplus reflects the efficiency of the production system and external structures rather than a direct increase in resident income [14] - As trade tensions stabilize and high-tech breakthroughs occur, the surplus is expected to gradually benefit the domestic economy and convert into disposable wealth for the population [14]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中金宏观 美国第三季度实际GDP环比折年率为4.3%，高于市场预期的3.3%和上一个季度的3.8%。从分项来看， 主要贡献来自强劲的消费支出。三季度私人消费支出环比年化增长3.5%，较二季度的2.5%加快，对 GDP增长贡献高达2.4个百分点。其中，非耐用品与服务支出增速加快，耐用品支出增速则放缓。 强劲的消费支出或与资产价格上涨带来的财富效应有关。三季度美国股市在AI主题的带动下进一步反 弹，提振了消费者的购买力。此前也有Moody研究显示，当前美国近一半的消费支出由最富有的10%人 口贡献[1]，而该群体持有约87%的美国股票[2]，并在过去几年中持续受益于资本市场的显著回报。与 此同时，三季度居民实际可支配收入的环比年化增长为零，为2022年二季度以来的最低值，这也表明消 费支出的主要来源并非工资性收入。往前看，四季度以来美国股市呈现震荡走势，加上加密货币价格下 跌（例如比特币价格从10月初高点累计下跌超过20%），可能会削弱财富效应。而就业前景的弱化，加 上实际工资增速并未改善，也可能对消费产生拖累。 固定资产投资增速放缓 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant surge in Hong Kong's real estate market, driven by various factors including government policy changes, interest rate reductions, and an influx of mainland talent [1][3][10] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government has implemented measures to stimulate the housing market, such as the cancellation of additional stamp duties and a reduction in buyer stamp duties, which has effectively lowered costs for local and mainland buyers [3][5] - The mortgage cap has been raised to 70%, reducing the down payment burden, and the stamp duty for properties under 4 million HKD has been significantly reduced, activating demand from first-time buyers [3][5] Group 3 - The decline in interest rates, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, has led to a situation where mortgage payments are lower than rental costs in many properties, encouraging renters to transition to homebuyers [5][8] Group 4 - The influx of mainland talent into Hong Kong has been substantial, with over 190,000 applications for talent programs in the past two years, contributing to a strong demand for housing [8][10] - The number of transactions by buyers using Mandarin pinyin has reached a record high, accounting for 24% of total private residential transactions, indicating a shift in buyer demographics [8][15] Group 5 - The performance of the stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index, has created a wealth effect, leading to an increase in the number of high-net-worth individuals in Hong Kong, which in turn drives demand for real estate [11][13] Group 6 - The article suggests that the current boom in Hong Kong's real estate market is unlikely to positively influence the mainland market due to differing economic fundamentals and market conditions [15][16] - The overall dynamics of the Hong Kong real estate market are influenced by a combination of policy, interest rates, population influx, capital investment, and stock market performance, all contributing to the current market conditions [16]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that achieving significant wealth growth is attainable through understanding the wealth effect and implementing effective financial strategies [1][9]. Group 1: Wealth Growth Principles - The essence of the wealth effect lies in regular savings and prudent investments, which generate compound interest over time, leading to substantial asset growth [1]. - Stable cash flow is fundamental for wealth accumulation, necessitating effective budgeting and expenditure management to ensure investable funds each month [2]. - Recognizing the power of compound interest is crucial; for instance, investing 1,000 yuan monthly at an annual return of 10% can yield a total of 200,000 yuan after 10 years [3]. Group 2: Financial Management Strategies - Establishing a budget plan is essential, detailing monthly income and necessary expenses while allocating a portion for investments [3]. - Controlling non-essential expenditures is vital; reducing luxury spending can free up funds for more valuable uses, such as investments or self-improvement [3]. - Creating an emergency fund covering 3-6 months of living expenses helps avoid dipping into investment funds during unforeseen circumstances [3]. Group 3: Investment Approaches - Investment is key to wealth growth; selecting suitable investment channels and diversifying portfolios can mitigate risks and enhance returns [5][7]. - Understanding various investment channels, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, is necessary to align with individual risk tolerance and investment goals [7]. - Regularly adjusting investment portfolios in response to market conditions is important for maintaining a balanced risk-return profile [7]. Group 4: Personal Development for Wealth Growth - Continuous learning and self-improvement are vital for enhancing earning potential; acquiring new skills can lead to higher income opportunities [6][8]. - Expanding professional networks can provide additional opportunities and resources, facilitating wealth growth [6]. - Exploring multiple income streams through side jobs or freelance work can supplement primary income sources [6]. Group 5: Psychological Aspects of Wealth Growth - Maintaining a positive mindset is crucial for overcoming challenges in the wealth accumulation process; a calm approach during market fluctuations is necessary [8][11]. - Cultivating patience is essential, as wealth growth is a long-term endeavor that requires sustained effort [11]. - Overcoming fear and anxiety related to market volatility is important for maintaining confidence in financial strategies [11].