该行指，本港零售额增长的进一步复苏可能受到多种因素的支撑，尤其是访港游客改善，这尤其提振了 奢侈品和非必需品的销售。8月份，香港录得420万中国大陆游客入境，创下自2022年边境重新开放以来 的最高单月游客数量。美银预期，9月港股上涨和房地产市场稳定将带来财富效应，届时香港零售销售 额将进一步改善。 智通财经APP获悉，美银发布研报称，美国银行指出香港8月零售额同比增长3.8%，优于预期的2.0%， 按季增长1.5%，此前7月零售额下降1.9%。以数量计算，零售额同比增长3.2%。 美银称，同比比较来看，8月份零售额增长再次受到奢侈品销售增长以及非必需品销售强劲增长的支 撑。依销售额增速排序，奢侈品(珠宝、钟表)销售额较去年同期增长16.4%，此前为8.9%，部分原因是 更为有利的基数效应。服装销售额轻微升至3.2%，百货销售额则略为放缓至2.0%。电子产品和耐用消 费品销售额则从先前的-8.3%反弹至0.4%。同时，超市和食品零售商的销售额分别下降0.9%和3.5%。汽 车销售额下降8.9%，燃油销售额跌幅扩大至-11.4%。 ...

美国经济学家萨姆纳讲过这样一个寓言：A和B制定了一个宏大计划，却完全忽略了该计划将对C先生造成的负面影响。萨姆纳将C先生称为"被遗忘的 人"，他是"改革者、社会投机者和慈善家的受害者"，也是"不惜一切代价"里的那个代价。 在21世纪的全球经济图景中，这个寓言获得了惊人的现实回响。 在特朗普式的政客不断宣传下，似乎降息已经成为了拯救经济的灵丹妙药，而不肯降息的鲍威尔则是恶棍 爱德华·钱塞勒对此于2022年出版了《The Price of Time》一书，提出不那么受欢迎的观点：长期的廉价信贷阻碍了熊彼特概念上的"创造性毁灭"过程，取 而代之的是一种"非自然选择"，即大量本应破产的低效"僵尸公司"得以续命。在这种情况下，中产阶级的晋升机会减少、薪资增长缓慢，同时又因储蓄回 报被压制、养老金体系岌岌可危而财富增值乏力。 用萨姆纳的寓言来讲，在这场宏大的现代经济实验中，中产阶级（C）成为了那个"被遗忘的"、默默承受代价的群体。 一、低利率催生的新"摩根化"和大回购时代 历史经验来看，低利率是催生企业合并与市场垄断的温床。在19世纪末的美国镀金时代，利率的持续下降促成了由J.P.摩根主导的工业托拉斯化浪潮， 即"摩根化 ...

究竟是怎样的财富神话，能让一个地区的楼市脱离地心引力？ 全美国的楼市都在寒风中打哆嗦，唯独硅谷，热得发烫！一边是建筑商哭着降价卖房，一边是硅谷的买 家举着现金抢房，抢不到还得加价！这哪里是买房？简直是春运抢票现场啊！ 全美39%的建筑商在降价促销，65%的拼命送优惠，可硅谷呢？80多人挤破头看一套房，四份报价抢一 个房子，最后成交价还比挂牌价高了十几万美元！而且，全是现金！现金啊朋友们！这是什么概念？这 意味着高利率对这帮人来说，根本不算个事儿。 当全美房地产市场在寒风中瑟瑟发抖，降价、滞销成为主旋律时，有一个地方却热得发烫，硅谷。这里 不看利率脸色，不讲市场规律，唯一的硬通货就是现金。 为何硅谷能逆天改命？背后推手，正是席卷全球的AI创富浪潮。新晋的科技富豪和手握股票的工程师 们，正带着巨额现金，涌入楼市，上演一场颠覆周期的疯狂抢购。 股价一飞冲天，期权一夜变现，工程师们拿着百万年薪，投资人笑着点钞票，硅谷的财富效应，就像一 场停不下来的狂欢。 麻省理工的学者都说，一百年来，没见过财富创造得这么快、这么猛。旧金山的亿万富翁比纽约还多， 百万富翁十年翻倍，2000万美元以上的豪宅卖得创纪录。这些数字背后，是多 ...

Market Overview - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.21%. The STAR Market 50 increased by 1.32%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.68%. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.03% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on September 16 were comprehensive (+3.63%), machinery and equipment (+2.06%), computer (+2.06%), retail (+1.96%), and automotive (+1.82%). The worst-performing sectors included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.29%), banking (-1.15%), non-ferrous metals (-0.99%), defense and military industry (-0.5%), and food and beverage (-0.38%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on September 16 was 23,670.69 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.188 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights Consumption Strategy - In the medium to long term, the first "systematic 'slow' bull" is expected to release a wealth effect, potentially slowly boosting consumption. Insurance funds and foreign capital entering the market are favorable for consumer blue chips, with positive signals from central Huijin increasing holdings in liquor ETFs. A top-down perspective suggests that the broad consumption sector is likely to benefit [5] - The market perceives that the wealth effect of the bull market is not significant. However, it is believed that the bull market can indirectly drive the wealth effect through a specific transmission path: A-share bull market → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in other cities → recovery of real estate wealth effect. Investment opportunities in the consumption sector are worth noting, particularly in blue-chip leaders and emerging growth areas [5] - The driving factors include support from policies, funds, and sentiment, indicating that the first "systematic 'slow' bull" has quietly arrived, which may enhance the Sharpe ratio of the A-share market and indirectly boost consumption [5] Bond Market Insights - The current bond market adjustment differs significantly from historical bear markets, as the fundamentals, monetary policy, and curve shapes do not resemble past bear markets. Instead, it is more akin to an emotional adjustment under continuous risk preference shocks, anti-involution, and fund fee reduction [7][8] - There is a need to gradually break the mindset of a one-sided decline in yields and adapt to a fluctuating market pattern. However, based on the economic fundamentals and the core tone of moderate policy easing, a major bull-bear reversal has not yet been established [7][8] - The three core signals for a bull-to-bear transition include: 1. Policy bottom: Signs of marginal tightening in macro policies or expressions of tightening monetary policy 2. Fundamental bottom: Consistent and positive surprises in high-frequency and economic data 3. Sentiment bottom: A fragile and crowded trading structure triggered by the above two signals, leading to self-reinforcing sell-offs and deleveraging [8][9]

美国消费者支出在8月份展现出超预期的强劲势头，零售销售数据连续第三个月增长。此外，经通胀调整后的实际零售销售同比增长2.1%，实现 连续第11个月实现正增长。 16日，美国商务部公布的数据显示： 美国8月零售销售环比 0.6%，预期 0.2%，前值 0.5%。 美国8月零售销售(除汽车)环比0.7%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.4%。 美国8月零售销售(除汽车与汽油)环比0.7%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.3%。 8月份的零售增长具有广泛性，在13个主要类别中有9个录得增长。 这轮增长主要由在线零售商、服装店和体育用品店引领，可能反映了返校季购物的提振作用。作为零售报告中唯一的服务业类别，餐饮业支出在 经历前一个月的下滑后，本月反弹增长了0.7%。值得注意的是，即使部分经济学家预计汽车销售将拖累整体数据，该类别销售额仍在继续增长， 只是增速有所放缓。 家具和百货商店的销售额环比降幅最大。 | | | | | Percent Change* | | Jun. 2025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Kind of Busines ...

责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy, highlighting its role in shaping wealth, borrowing costs, and economic stability in the US [1][2][3] - The concept of "American exceptionalism" is discussed as a double-edged sword, granting the US significant power while also leading to potential overreach and mismanagement of its economic privileges [6][13] - Historical examples of reserve currencies, such as the Dutch Guilder, illustrate the risks associated with over-leveraging and the eventual decline of once-dominant currencies [15][28] Group 2 - The article identifies five current trends indicating a shift in the global economic landscape, including excessive national debt, rising wealth inequality, and a move towards protectionist policies [38][42][45] - It notes that the international order is transitioning from cooperative multilateralism to confrontational unilateralism, with an increased use of financial and military power [50] - The potential for significant changes in the next 5-10 years is highlighted, suggesting that understanding these fundamental shifts is crucial for risk management and investment strategies [51][52]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is derived from public trust, and it must recommit to maintaining the confidence of the American people. The focus should be on three statutory responsibilities: maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates [1][2][14]. Group 1: Critique of Current Policies - The use of unconventional monetary policies since the 2008 financial crisis is described as a dangerous "functional gain" experiment, threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][10]. - The overuse of unconventional policies and the expansion of functions have led to a concentration of wealth among asset owners, exacerbating inequality [4][12]. - The Federal Reserve's actions have created a perception that monetary policy is being used to accommodate fiscal needs, undermining its independence [7][13]. Group 2: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve should return to its narrow statutory mission and reduce economic distortions, focusing on maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates [8][14]. - Unconventional policies like quantitative easing (QE) should only be used in "true emergencies" and in coordination with other government departments [2][8][14]. - A comprehensive, independent, and nonpartisan review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, regulation, communication, personnel, and research is necessary [8][13]. Group 3: Market Implications - The statements made by the Treasury Secretary are seen as a precursor to a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy, potentially paving the way for financial repression policies such as QE or yield curve control (YCC) [3][9]. - If such policies are implemented, they could lead to a weaker dollar and benefit commodities like gold, silver, and copper, as well as markets like A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3][9].

Group 1: Market Overview - Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley agree that the real estate market is still in a downturn, with signs of improvement beginning to emerge [3][4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that there are over 60 million unsold homes in China, with a clearance period of 36 months, while Morgan Stanley highlights a structural oversupply that could meet the housing demand for urban populations over the next five years [3][4] - New home sales are projected to decline by 37.7% year-on-year in 2024, with some third and fourth-tier cities experiencing price drops exceeding 15% [3] Group 2: Policy Effectiveness - Despite a 1.5 percentage point reduction in interest rates by the central bank in 2024, leading to over 2 trillion yuan in long-term funds, new residential mortgage loans have shrunk by 42% compared to the previous year [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that resolving the "guarantee delivery" and inventory issues would require 8 trillion yuan in fiscal investment, equivalent to 35% of the national fiscal revenue for 2024 [4] - Morgan Stanley points out that the effectiveness of infrastructure investment has decreased significantly, with only 0.2 yuan of GDP growth generated for every 1 yuan invested, a 60% drop in efficiency compared to a decade ago [4] Group 3: Urban Disparities - In the first quarter of 2025, 30 monitored cities showed an 18% increase in new home transactions year-on-year, while lower-tier cities saw a 12% decline [5] - Asset price changes reflect this disparity, with second-hand home prices in Beijing's Chaoyang District slightly increasing by 0.3%, while prices in a central provincial capital have fallen below 2019 levels [5] Group 4: Diverging Recovery Narratives - Goldman Sachs believes that an 8 trillion yuan stimulus plan could create a "policy bottom," projecting a potential recovery in housing prices by the end of 2025 and a sales scale returning to 12 trillion yuan by 2027, still 40% lower than the peak in 2021 [6] - Conversely, Morgan Stanley warns that large-scale stimulus could exacerbate structural imbalances, with the total market value of real estate to GDP ratio remaining at 350%, compared to 169% in the U.S., suggesting that any stimulus could lead to new bubbles [6] Group 5: Economic Dynamics - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the positive impact of manufacturing upgrades, noting a 48% year-on-year increase in exports of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment, which offsets a 0.7 percentage point drag on GDP from declining real estate investment [11] - Morgan Stanley highlights the ongoing erosion of wealth effects, stating that a 1% drop in housing prices could suppress consumption growth by 0.3 percentage points, potentially continuing until 2028 [13] Group 6: Consumer Perspectives - Homebuyers face challenges, with first-time mortgage rates in Beijing dropping to 3.1%, yet average monthly payments consuming 62% of household income, exceeding the international warning line of 40% [14] - Developers are struggling, as evidenced by a promotional offer in Zhengzhou where buying a new home includes a parking space, reflecting a net profit margin below 2% [14] - Younger generations show a 23% decline in home-buying intentions, preferring to invest in vocational education and experiential consumption [14] Group 7: Future Strategies - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, mortgage rates have fallen below public fund loan rates, creating a rare opportunity for first-time homebuyers in the second half of 2025 [15] - The asset allocation paradigm is shifting, with real estate's share in household assets needing to decrease from 78% to below 50%, while alternative investments like REITs and affordable rental housing are gaining attention [15] - Awareness of risks is increasing, with a projected 34% debt default rate among the top 50 private real estate companies in 2024 [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the A-share market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" trend, characterized by a clear upward trajectory, stable trading volume, and sector rotation, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully breaking through previous highs [1][3][4] - The market sentiment is mixed, with investors feeling uncertain about whether to sell or hold their positions, indicating a complex emotional landscape amidst the ongoing bull market [3][4] - The article emphasizes that the sustainability of the current slow bull market is likely due to gradual improvements in the economic fundamentals, particularly in GDP growth rates and corporate earnings [3][5][6] Group 2 - The improvement in corporate earnings is evident, with the net profit of all A-shares increasing by 3.51% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend despite the slow pace of recovery [4][5] - The article discusses the current economic situation, highlighting the challenges of insufficient effective demand, which is a critical issue that the bull market could help address [10][11] - The comparison with Japan's economic history illustrates the potential for a slow bull market to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate spending, which is essential for economic recovery [11][12] Group 3 - The article notes that the risks associated with tariffs and trade tensions have diminished, particularly with the recent extension of the delay in imposing additional tariffs by the U.S., which alleviates some pressure on domestic exports [7][8] - The global monetary policy environment is becoming more accommodative, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could provide significant liquidity support to the A-share market [8][9] - The article suggests that the current bull market is not just about selecting the right sectors but also about maintaining a disciplined investment approach, avoiding emotional trading, and focusing on long-term holdings [19][20][21]