Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of nickel shows no obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply and demand in December 2025 are expected to remain loose. LME inventory stays at a high level, suppressing nickel prices. The actual improvement in supply and demand may only be reflected from the second quarter of 2026. Nickel prices are expected to be weak overall, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and caution when chasing short positions. Attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 16, 2025, Shanghai nickel prices dropped by more than 2.4%, breaking through the low of 12,100 yuan/ton. The sharp decline was mainly due to high inventory pressure. LME inventory has remained above 250,000 tons for about two months, and both LME inventory and Shanghai nickel orders increased again. The fundamental surplus indicates a further growth trend in inventory. Nornickel raised its nickel supply forecast for 2025 to 240,000 tons and for 2026 to 275,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In November 2025, the domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased by about 28% month - on - month to 26,800 tons, showing a significant marginal narrowing, but it was not enough to improve the fundamental surplus. In November, the production of MHP, ferronickel, and nickel matte in Indonesia all increased year - on - year, and the overall supply pressure of nickel remained. - Demand side: Entering the traditional consumption off - season, the spot market trading weakened after the previous phased replenishment. Stainless steel production decreased month - on - month, and the demand for electrolytic nickel and alloys is also expected to decline. China's implementation of stainless steel export license management may lead to a "rush to export" in the short term but may also overdraft exports in January 2026, causing a phased decline or slowdown in exports at the beginning of 2026. The overall fundamental surplus persists, with LME inventory increasing by 860 tons to 253,400 tons and Shanghai nickel inventory increasing by 2,622 tons to 37,900 tons, which suppresses nickel prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - The current fundamental situation of nickel shows no obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply and demand in December are expected to remain loose. LME inventory stays at a high level, suppressing prices. There are many supply - side interference policies in resource - producing countries, and the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia needs to be continuously tracked. The market expects a slight decline in the quota. The actual improvement in supply and demand may only be reflected from the second quarter of 2026. Nickel prices are expected to be weak overall, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and caution when chasing short positions. Attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia [4]