1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点（最新逻辑变化） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 现货分歧大。1）行情：LME市场圣诞缺席，国内沪铜增仓到纪录水平，价格最高10.2万，伦铜开市跳涨到最高1.29万。消费淡季叠加高铜价， | | | | 跨年时段单边交易以加速度兑现2026年尤其一季度铜精矿供应紧俏等利多因素，直接达到多数投行预计的年度高位区。2）国内供需：基本面背 | | | | 离信号明显。SMM月底沪粤现货贴水幅度扩至330、235元/吨，SMM社库增至21.48万吨。高铜价正在影响春节前涉铜中间铜材类产品开工，。这 | | 1 | 铜 | 可能对纪录涨势的铜价形成高位调整压力。但价格仍可能受益于原再生料的紧张、国内精炼铜产量供应同时转淡以及炼厂出口动作。海外价 差，美铜>伦铜>沪铜的跨市结构，持续减缓国内铜消费淡季的影响。3）海外：刚果（金）暂停手工铜和钴矿加工。等待海外投行更新2026年铜 | | | | 目标位预期。4）走势：以美盘铜6美元/磅上调铜市目标位，伦铜约1.31万美 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（12.22-12.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价大幅上涨，印尼配额问题引发原料供应担扰。近期部分产能减产，供 应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格部分小幅回落，海运费下降，矿库存高位，随着雨季来 临矿供应有所减少，矿山挺价。镍铁价格反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍 价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求 提振有限。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：镍价强势，空头观望，回到前期箱体再试空。 不锈钢主力：震荡偏强运行，空头暂等待。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状 ...

镍：供给高度集中的底部高赔率品种 20251228 镍需求主要由不锈钢和三元电池驱动，不锈钢占比 70%，三元电池占比 13%。不锈钢需求与宏观经济高度相关，在全球制造业 PMI 上行时，不 锈钢增速同比可高达 10%。 镍具有权益弹性大于商品弹性的特点，在印尼托底政策、冶炼审批限制 及乐观宏观预期下，未来一年内行情值得期待，建议关注整个权益板块 布局机会，如华友钴业，镍价每上涨 1,000 美元，公司利润弹性可达 12 亿以上。 2025 年 12 月，印尼已审批的总量配额达到 3.79 亿吨，而实际需求量仅为 2.8-2.9 亿吨。因此，从 2025 年 10 月起，过去所审批的配额作废，并要求企 业重新申请新一年的配额，将 RKB 有效期恢复为一年一审。这一变化使得未来 每年的 RKB 审批量级更灵活调节。如果 2026 年的总配额严格控制在 2.5 亿吨， 将显著影响供给，并可能导致行业反转。 印尼政府对镍矿供应政策变化对市场价格有何影响？ 随着印尼政府对 RKB 政策调整及其他相关措施实施，自 2023 年底至 2024 年 期间（即今年），由于政策收紧和大选因素导致审批偏紧，使得火法矿价格从 30 ...

银河期货发布研报称，近期印尼频繁调整政策，希望托底镍价，包括收缩RKAB配额至2.5亿吨、对钴 征税、以及环保监管等举措，刺激镍价超跌反弹。其中最为重要的是印尼RKAB的配额自今年的3.79亿 吨大幅降至2.5亿吨，市场较为担忧印尼明年待投产的镍产品项目缺乏原料，镍矿价格将出现大幅上 涨。该政策符合印尼新政府的战略方向，但最终实施方式暂不明确。印尼政策可信度略低，关注后续进 展。 中金此前指出，力勤资源目前已覆盖镍矿贸易、冶炼生产、设备制造和销售等完整产业链环节。公司在 上游与菲律宾、印尼等矿企签订长期贸易和供货协议，中游印尼OBI岛形成共计40万金属吨镍产能，下 游延伸拓展硫酸镍钴等，已形成全面镍产品服务体系。该行认为，公司印尼的湿法产能有望受益，且未 来存在扩张印尼镍产业链布局的潜力，驱动公司业绩和估值抬升。 力勤资源(02245)再涨超4%，近四个交易日累涨超23%。截至发稿，涨4.5%，报19.74港元，成交额 3570.43万港元。 ...

2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再创新高 | 3 | | 铜：现货走弱，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：ETF增持边际上扬，中枢上移 | 14 | | 钯：小幅撤步后重拾上涨势头 | 14 | | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 16 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：泰利森新投产，关注需求淡季不淡的预期兑现 | 18 | | 工业硅：逢高做空为主 | 20 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡 | 20 | | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 23 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 25 | | 锰硅：多空情绪 ...

在市场对镍中长期供应格局转向乐观的预期下，力勤资源作为产业链核心参与者，其价值正获得市场的 重新审视与积极定价。 值得注意的是，宏观层面也为整个工业金属板块创造了有利环境。美联储于近期宣布降息25个基点，同 时计划在短期内购入巨额短债。市场普遍预期美联储明年将继续降息。宽松的货币环境无疑提振了以美 元计价的大宗商品吸引力，为包括镍在内的工业金属普涨提供了流动性支持和金融属性利好。 作者|飞鱼 摩根士丹利最新研报预计到2026年，镍价将回升至每吨15500美元，届时供需将同步增长。 资料显示，力勤资源主要从事镍行业，业务涵盖上游镍资源整合、红土镍矿及镍产品贸易、冶炼及生产 镍化合物及镍铁等整个镍产业链，公司拥有湿法镍产能达12万吨，未来或直接受益于行业供需格局改 善、镍价回升的周期。 12月18日，力勤资源(02245.HK)跳空大涨，一度涨超10%，截至发稿，公司涨4.98%，报17.3港元/股， 市值269.2亿港元。 近日印尼镍矿商协会(APNI)表示，印尼政府在2026年工作计划和预算(RKAB)中提出的镍矿石产量目标 约为2.5亿吨，这相较于2025年约3.79亿吨的计划产量目标大幅下调超过三分之一。 ...

1. Reported Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment is positive, and it will operate at a high level in the short - term [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of news [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 113,800, with a change of - 3,290 compared to T - 5. The stainless - steel main contract's closing price is 12,380, with a change of - 175 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads are also presented [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine area, which is expected to affect monthly nickel production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the government restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia will reduce production, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [4][5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract is 106,820, with an increase of 12,740 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain are provided [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. Due to environmental protection reasons in Hubei, some phosphorus - chemical enterprises reduced or suspended production, which may affect the supply of upstream materials for new - energy batteries [9][10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,470, with an increase of 220 compared to T - 5. The PS2605 contract's closing price is 61,595, with an increase of 5,680 compared to T - 5. Data on inventory, cost, price, and profit in the industrial - silicon and polysilicon industries are also given [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Turkish and German companies plan to build a solar - cell and silicon - wafer production plant in Turkey [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus shows a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices fluctuate at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mining right cancellation is limited, but sentiment may be supported [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The strategy is mainly to short on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Some companies have raised their quotes, and attention should be paid to actual transactions [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 112,290, down 2,400 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,320, down 160 from the previous day [4]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 112,350, down 2,700 from the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi, Taiyuan/Zhangpu) was 13,250, down 50 from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4]. - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [5]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [5]. - Indonesia's OSS platform suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses [7]. - Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia's industrial park will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 98,740, down 360 from the previous day; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 100,600, down 460 from the previous day [9]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850, up 700 from the previous day; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,700, up 80 from the previous day [9]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose by 724 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [10]. - Jiangxi Special Electric Co., Ltd.'s mining right in the Shiziling mining area may be cancelled, and the company is striving to renew it and promote the production of the Xikeng lithium mine [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,365, up 15 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,600, up 570 from the previous day [13]. - **Price and Profit**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,750, unchanged from the previous day; the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,919.5 yuan/ton, down 85 from the previous day [13]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.1 tons, with an increase of 0.3 tons compared with a week ago; the polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 29.3 tons, with an increase of 0.2 tons compared with a week ago [13]. Macro and Industry News In 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and the total social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time [13][15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].

打节 | 【公司 风险提示 风险因素:印尼政策风险;需求增长超预期。 研究员: 库存高位压制 镍价破位下行 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2025年12月16日，沪银大幅下跌超2.4%。盘中一度跌破1.21万/吨的低位。辖破位下跌主要受到库存高位压制，LME库存已于25万吨以上维持约2个月。且昨日LME库存和沪接食单均再 度出现一定程度的累积。基本面过剩下库存仍有进一步增长趋势。此外，据金十数据12月15日讯，Nornickel周一表示已将今年银供应该测预测上调一倍至24万吨，并将26年预测从13万吨上调 至27.5万吨。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端，国内电镜 11月产量环比大减约28%至2.68万吨。 出现较为阴显边际收窄， 但尚不足以有效改善基本面过剩，同时印尼11月MHP、冰银和银钱产量均维持同比增长、整 体银供给端压力仍存。需求端进入传统消费淡季，现货市场在前期完成阶段性补货后成交有所走弱，不锈钢排产环比逐步走弱，电银和合金端也预计将有所下滑，同时中国实施不锈钢出口许可 证管理、考虑到政策实际执行时间为2026年1月1日，距离当下仍存半个月的时间窗口，短期或存在一定*抢出口'现 ...