有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口关闭。宏观方面，昨晚美联储理事米 | | | | | | | | | | 兰重申尽管劳动力市场有所改善，但 2026 年仍需降息 100 个基点，并倾向于尽早行动。 | | | | | | | | | | 昨晚尽管英伟达报告超预期，但市场对 ai 担忧不减，拖累纳指下行，进一步影响市场情 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 绪。库存方面，LME 铜库存增加 3950 吨至 259600 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 9.98 吨至 | | | | | | | | | | | 545267 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 1413 吨至 289219 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 14218 吨。需求方 | | 铜 | | 面，关注节后开工情况。Ai 担忧下美股动荡拖累市场情绪，短期仍不排除宏观情绪退潮 | | ...

有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 钨价延续2026年以来的强劲上涨惯性，同时受到大型钨企长单报价的支撑，整体呈现先扬后稳的运行态势。 国际钨价跟涨，主要基于供应链短缺压力，作为全球钨资源80%的供应来源，中国出口管制和私采打击等措施， 导致海外原料采购难度加大，叠加海外钨资源项 有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 重点关注：厦门钨业、中钨高新、翔鹭钨业。 锂：本周碳酸锂现货价格震荡上行。 电池级碳酸锂均价从周初的13.55万元/吨持续上涨至周四的14.25万元/吨，全周上涨7000元/吨。 工业级碳酸锂均价从13.2万元/吨上涨至13.9万元/吨，上涨7000元/吨。 期货市场表现强劲，主力合约价格区间自周初的13.5-14.1万元/吨震荡上行至14.6-15.24万元/吨。 随着春节临近，物流陆续暂停，下游材料厂对2月份的备货已基本完成，多数企业转向观望，采购心理价位偏低。 市场成交以零星 ...

2026年02月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，节前资金离场限制弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游补库暂告一段落，节前盘面波幅减小 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游少量复产，情绪面打压盘面 | 6 | | 多晶硅：现货真空期，关注节后成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，节前资金离场限制弹性 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 133,350 | -1,170 | -1 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on February 10, 2026, focusing on green finance and new energy, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia [2][4] - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has moved up [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Inventory has accumulated, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2][15] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the post - holiday spot transactions [2][16] Summary by Commodity Nickel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,520 yuan, with various changes compared to previous periods. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 417,105 lots, showing a significant decline. The price of 1 imported nickel was 134,600 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and there are plans to adjust nickel ore production targets. There are also issues such as potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land by some mines, and the investigation of monopoly behavior in the port of IMIP Park [4][5][7] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Stainless steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,735 yuan, and the trading volume was 202,243 lots, showing a downward trend. The prices of various stainless steel products in the market also had different changes [4] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Lithium carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 137,000 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators compared to previous periods. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts in the industrial chain also showed different fluctuations [12] - **Macro and industry news**: Beijing has launched an automobile trade - in subsidy plan, and Ningxia's cumulative external power transmission has exceeded 900 billion kWh [13][14] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [14] Industrial silicon - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,450 yuan/ton, and the industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.2 million tons, showing an upward trend [16] - **Macro and industry news**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will decline compared to 2025 and will return to an upward trend after 2027 [16][18] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18] Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,370 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 34.1 million tons, showing an increase [16] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices weakened, with a sharp drop of over 10,000 yuan per ton on Monday. Spot market sentiment was cautious, and traders' holiday - waiting sentiment increased. As nickel prices declined further, some downstream buyers entered the market. In terms of supply, January production continued to rise, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and LME inventories decreased slightly, with sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, there was strong bullish sentiment for nickel ore, but there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices began to decline, and the cost line shifted downward. Stainless - steel inventories continued to rise, which may put pressure on prices in the short term. Although the production and sales data of new - energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, and positions are decreasing. The MACD shows a downward trend. With five trading days before the holiday, funds may continue to flow out. It is recommended to control positions and hold a light position during the holiday [80]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices weakened this week, with supply increasing and demand showing mixed signals. The industrial chain presented different situations for various products. - **Strategies**: Hold a small amount of short positions for both the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract, and stop losses if the price returns above the 20 - day moving average [9][10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 57 to 61, a 7.02% increase; NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 52 to 56, a 7.69% increase. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: Battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 33,000 to 32,150, a 2.58% decrease; electroplating - grade remained unchanged at 32,500. - **Nickel - Iron**: Low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,550; high - nickel iron in Shandong decreased from 1,060 to 1,045, a 1.42% decrease. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 149,500 to 141,360, a 5.44% decrease; Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 142,150 to 130,810, a 7.98% decrease; Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased from 150,100 to 140,200, a 6.60% decrease. - **Stainless Steel**: 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,037.5 to 14,987.5, a 0.33% decrease [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel ore prices increased by $4 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight remained stable. - **Inventory**: On February 5, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 11.0853 million wet tons, a decrease of 638,100 wet tons or 5.44% from the previous period. - **Import**: In December 2025, nickel ore imports were 1.9928 million tons, a 40.33% decrease from the previous month and a 31.13% increase year - on - year. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a 10.94% increase year - on - year [18] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Electrolytic nickel prices weakened this week, with Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all decreasing. - **Spot**: Market sentiment was cautious this week, and as prices declined, some downstream buyers made purchases. Traders' holiday - waiting sentiment was strong. - **Long - term Fundamentals**: The global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new - energy field will provide key structural support. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The global nickel supply and demand are in a state of slight surplus in some years. - **Production**: In January 2026, China's refined nickel production was 35,225 tons, a 14.34% increase from the previous month and a 4.91% increase year - on - year. The estimated production in February 2026 is 32,260 tons, a decrease of 8.42% from the previous month and a 2.68% decrease year - on - year. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394.299 tons, a significant increase from the previous month and year - on - year. Exports were 13,296.309 tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In December 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 206,100 tons in physical terms and 45,400 tons in metal terms. The estimated production in January 2026 is 47,600 metal tons. Battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel prices decreased, while electroplating - grade remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,282 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 2,061 tons to 57,457 tons [24][26][27][30][34][37][40] 3.2.4 Nickel - Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: Low - nickel iron prices remained unchanged, while high - nickel iron prices decreased. - **Production**: In December 2025, China's nickel - pig iron production was 21,400 tons in metal terms, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decrease. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 996,000 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 11.149 million tons, a 24.2% increase year - on - year. - **Inventory**: In December, the negotiable inventory of nickel - iron was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [45][47][50][53] 3.2.5 Stainless - Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. - **Production**: In December, stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, with a decrease in 300 - series production. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that stainless - steel imports were 145,000 tons and exports were 485,000 tons. - **Inventory**: On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a 12,300 - ton increase from the previous period [58][63][66][69] 3.2.6 New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales**: In December, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2%. - **Power Battery**: In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power - battery installation volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [74][77] 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, positions are decreasing, and the MACD shows a downward trend. With five trading days before the holiday, funds may continue to flow out. It is recommended to control positions and hold a light position during the holiday [80] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Bullish sentiment is strong, but there is a contrast between overseas and domestic markets. - **Nickel - Iron**: Prices are falling, and the cost line is shifting downward. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories are rising, which may put pressure on prices. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: Production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, and a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown following a funding agreement [3][19] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China rose to a three-month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][19] - Copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, supporting a tight supply sentiment, while February's estimated electrolytic copper production is projected at 1.1435 million tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month but an 8.1% increase year-on-year [4][20] - The net imports of refined copper in December fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories increased by 29,000 tons to 1.123 million tons as of February 6, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - The market anticipates short-term price corrections due to demand disruptions around the Chinese New Year, but strong support is seen below 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating continued investor interest [5][21] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel ore premiums have increased, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising by $4.5/ton to $30/ton, while refined nickel production is expected to decline by 5% month-on-month to 35,800 tons [6][22] - The demand for new energy materials is projected to decrease, with February's production of ternary precursors expected to drop by 7% to 80,790 tons and ternary materials by 15% to 69,250 tons [6][22] - Stainless steel prices have generally declined, with total social inventory increasing by 1.29% week-on-week to 965,000 tons [6][22] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with nickel prices experiencing fluctuations, but cost support remains strong due to supply concerns from Indonesia [7][23] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching 2,824 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2%, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 5.1% to 23,315 yuan/ton [8][24] - The operating rate of alumina plants increased by 0.53% to 77.8%, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise to 44.1 million tons, with a production of 343,200 tons [8][24] - Social inventories of alumina increased by 5,020 tons to 176,000 tons, while aluminum ingots saw a weekly increase of 5,400 tons to 836,000 tons [9][25] - The market anticipates a potential rebound in aluminum prices post-holiday, with attention on inventory levels and external market influences during the holiday period [9][26] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping to 8,500 yuan/ton, while polysilicon prices increased to 49,285 yuan/ton [11][27] - The production of industrial silicon decreased by 10,340 tons to 63,300 tons, with a notable reduction in operational furnaces [11][27] - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with significant price adjustments and a slowdown in new orders due to seasonal factors [12][28] - The market is expected to face challenges as supply tightens, with a focus on the upcoming demand recovery in the traditional peak season [12][29] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with a projected decline of 16.3% in February [14][30] - The production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is also expected to decline, reflecting a broader trend in the lithium battery supply chain [14][31] - Social inventories of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [14][33] - Market sentiment remains volatile, with price fluctuations influenced by downstream demand and strategic stocking behaviors ahead of the holiday [14][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The marginal situation is dominated by macro - sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts are occurring in February, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the lower end [2][6]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to changes in the macro - sentiment of commodities [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2][16]. - Polysilicon: It is in a range - bound pattern [2][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 134,430, down 3,250 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,810, down 15 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads are also provided [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel ore production target and revise the benchmark price formula; there are issues such as ship accidents and port monopoly investigations [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral state [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract is 132,780, down 14,440 from the previous day. Other data including trading volume, positions, and prices of related lithium products are presented [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The weekly production decreased by 825 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 2019 tons; Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a stake in Huirong Mining [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral state [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,605, down 245 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 49,550, down 1,645 from the previous day. Data on trading volume, positions, spreads, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Hainan Province has announced its 2026 major project investment plan, including 3 photovoltaic projects [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral state [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a collective decline, with nickel prices dropping significantly due to macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, 2026, nickel prices fell by 11%, hitting the daily limit down, with spot nickel priced at 140,400 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.05% decrease from the previous Thursday [1] - The decline in nickel prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic fund withdrawal and weak market fundamentals [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman by Trump has alleviated market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a stronger dollar and a general withdrawal of funds from the market [1] - Domestic refined nickel production in January increased month-on-month, but end-user purchasing remained cautious due to the seasonal consumption slowdown [1] Group 3: Inventory and Future Outlook - Nickel inventories on the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange exceeded 280,000 tons and 40,000 tons, respectively [1] - Despite the short-term pressure from macroeconomic sentiment, there are still expectations of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, suggesting potential for a rebound in the future [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].