Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on fully integrated HPAL nickel leaders in Indonesia and companies with captive/minority mining interests and transfer pricing capabilities [4][11]. Core Insights - The global nickel industry is undergoing a significant adjustment in supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of approximately 4 million tonnes of supply and demand by 2026, where Indonesia will contribute around 65% [7][8]. - Indonesia's stricter mining rights quota approvals and higher resource taxes have become critical variables affecting global nickel supply, leading to increased state revenues and market sentiment volatility [2][8]. - Sulfur supply changes are profoundly impacting the production costs of Indonesian hydrometallurgical processing, which in turn affects the global supply of battery-grade intermediate products [9][10]. - Future nickel price movements will be influenced by Indonesian policies and sulfur cost volatility, with a current market characterized by tightening supply-side elasticity and subdued demand [10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - By 2026, global nickel supply and demand are expected to reach around 4 million tonnes, with Indonesia's contribution being approximately 2.6 to 2.7 million tonnes [7][8]. - The supply surplus in 2025 was about 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes, while 2026 is anticipated to achieve a balance or slight surplus, although uncertainties in Indonesian supply policies may disrupt this equilibrium [7][8]. Policy Impact - Indonesia's recent policies, including stricter mining rights quota approvals and higher taxes, have intensified market sentiment volatility and affected global supply elasticity [2][8]. - The implementation pace of these policies directly impacts the nickel industry's price volatility and supply dynamics [2][8]. Cost Factors - The reliance on sulfur imports for Indonesian HPAL operations, with 70% to 75% sourced from the Middle East, has led to increased production costs due to recent supply disruptions [9][10]. - Current production costs for MHP have risen to near break-even levels, with limited profits achievable through cobalt credits [9][10]. Price Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to be driven by Indonesian policies and sulfur cost fluctuations, with a potential for price caps if downstream producers reduce output in response to rising prices [10]. - The first half of 2026 is projected to see volatility and rebalancing in the nickel market, supported by high-cost production [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitical factors and short - term market risk appetite, Shanghai nickel showed a slight decline this week. The nickel inventory is at a high level in the same period. Geopolitical conflicts led to high - level international oil prices and a significant increase in the ocean freight of Philippine nickel ore. The supply of nickel ore is relatively tight, and the premium of domestic - trade ore remains at a high level. The downstream stainless steel de - stocking speed is slow, consumption is average, and the inventory is still high. Although the crude steel production schedule in March has increased and there is still supply pressure, the market still has high expectations for the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April". Currently, it is the off - season for new energy vehicle consumption, with average performance. It is expected that the operating range of the main Shanghai nickel contract is approximately 128,000 to 140,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main stainless steel contract is approximately 13,400 to 14,600 yuan/ton [33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of yuan/ton [5][6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: It shows the inventory chart of China's nickel ore ports from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of 10,000 tons [8][9] - **Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price**: Displays the price chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of yuan/ton [10][11] - **Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price**: Presents the average price chart of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of yuan/ton [13][14] - **Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel**: Shows the monthly import volume chart of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price chart of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the units of tons and yuan/nickel respectively [15][16] - **Downstream - Stainless Steel Price**: Displays the closing price chart of stainless steel futures (continuous) with the unit of yuan/ton [17][18] - **Downstream - Stainless Steel Futures Position**: Presents the position volume chart of stainless steel futures from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of lots [19][20] - **Downstream - Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory**: Shows the inventory chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel with the unit of tons [22][23] - **Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries**: Presents the monthly production chart of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries and the monthly loading volume chart of Chinese power batteries (ternary materials) with the unit of megawatt - hours [25][26] - **Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production**: Displays the monthly production chart of Chinese new energy vehicles from December 31, 2020, to February 28, 2026, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [28][29] 3.3 Future Outlook - In the United States, on March 18 (local time), the Federal Reserve kept the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%. This decision met market expectations and was the second consecutive time this year that the Fed chose to "stand still". The "hawkish" statement of Fed Chairman Powell at the press conference and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts. From the "dot plot" of interest - rate forecasts released by the Fed, the interest - rate guidance still indicates one interest - rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively, but the number of committee members who expect no interest - rate cuts this year and next year has increased significantly compared with the previous time, indicating a significant weakening of the Fed's easing expectation. In China, the current Chinese economy is in the opening year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", facing a complex situation of structural transformation and both internal and external challenges. The government work report in 2026 set the economic growth target in the range of 4.5% - 5%, aiming to leave room for "adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms". Looking forward to 2026, the policy focus has clearly shifted to "expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market" and is committed to cultivating new - quality productivity. Real - estate adjustment, local - debt resolution, and the promotion of the "anti - involution" policy will be key challenges [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, and the domestic refined copper spot import window closed. Despite the improvement in the labor market, the Fed still needs to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026. Concerns about AI led to a decline in the Nasdaq, affecting market sentiment. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories all increased. There is a risk of a second correction due to the retreat of macro - sentiment and inventory accumulation. However, the core driving factors for copper price increase, such as supply gap due to insufficient global copper mine capital expenditure and demand growth in new energy and AI computing infrastructure, remain unchanged. A significant correction could be a good opportunity to set up long - term long positions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The SMM alumina price stopped falling and rebounded. The overseas alumina price increase and domestic raw material winter storage led to an upward movement in the alumina futures. However, social inventory backlog and expiring warehouse receipt cancellation pressure suppressed the upward trend. After the holiday, there may be a short - term price increase in Shanghai aluminum, but the overall space is limited. The subsequent price increase position of aluminum will be determined by the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has shrunk significantly compared to the previous year. An Indonesian nickel - iron factory's output is expected to decline. The nickel ore premium has strengthened again, and there are concerns about resource supply shortages. Although the short - term demand has weakened, the cost support is strong. There are opportunities to go long lightly near the cost line, and a significant reduction in visible inventory may further boost prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The macro environment is complex, with factors such as Fed interest - rate cut expectations and AI concerns. The increase in inventory poses a short - term risk, but the long - term upward logic remains. A significant price correction could be a long - term investment opportunity [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly. Overseas price increases and domestic winter storage supported the alumina futures, but inventory pressure limited the upward space. The post - holiday price trend of aluminum is related to inventory accumulation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices declined, and inventory changes were mixed. Indonesian production quota cuts and supply - side issues led to cost support. There are long - entry opportunities near the cost line [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On February 26, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 245 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME and SHFE inventories showed different changes. The active contract import profit and loss improved by 580 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 20 yuan/ton. Some prices and processing fees remained stable, and the上期所库存 increased by 8715 tons on a weekly basis [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of无锡 and 南海 aluminum increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 21.6 tons on a weekly basis, while the alumina social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1400 yuan/ton. The nickel inventory increased by 1318 tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 remained unchanged. The social inventory increased by 0.61 tons on a weekly basis [7]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 4.2%. The上期所 inventory increased by 2264 tons on a weekly basis [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][15][16]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][21][22]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][27][28]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2026 [32][33][34]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of smelting - related indicators such as copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][40][41]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research, have won many awards, and are often interviewed by multiple media [46][47].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Tungsten Industry - As of February 13, tungsten concentrate prices reached 697,000 CNY per standard ton, with a weekly increase of 3.3% and a rise of 237,000 CNY (51%) compared to the end of 2025 [1] - The tungsten price has shown a strong upward trend since 2026, supported by long-term quotes from major tungsten companies, indicating a pattern of initial increase followed by stabilization [1] - International tungsten prices are rising due to supply chain shortages, with China being the source of 80% of global tungsten resources. Export controls and crackdowns on illegal mining in China have made overseas raw material procurement more difficult [1] - The current tungsten market faces significant supply-side challenges, with no clear signs of price peaks, providing solid support for the overall market [1] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 135,500 CNY per ton at the beginning of the week to 142,500 CNY per ton by Thursday, a weekly increase of 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices rose from 132,000 CNY per ton to 139,000 CNY per ton, also up by 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - The futures market showed strong performance, with main contract prices rising from a range of 135,000-141,000 CNY per ton to 146,000-152,400 CNY per ton [4] - Market transactions are primarily driven by sporadic pricing settlements and essential purchases, with overall inquiry and transaction volumes declining [5] - A weak supply-demand balance is expected to persist before and after the Spring Festival, with prices likely to stabilize [6] Antimony Industry - Increased market activity was noted before the Spring Festival, with antimony prices continuing to rise due to speculative demand [10] - A fire at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry has led to production halts, affecting over 2,000 tons of antimony ingot output [11] - Overall market demand remains relatively weak, but expectations for improved demand post-holiday are rising due to new export policies and improved trade conditions [11][12] - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover due to limited supply and expected export recovery [12] Tin Industry - The tin market is experiencing a weak overall trend, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and changes in the AI industry narrative [13] - Supply-side constraints are evident as many smelting companies plan maintenance shutdowns, leading to tighter raw material supplies [14] - Demand from downstream solder companies has diminished, with most enterprises halting production and showing low purchasing intent [14] - The market is expected to remain quiet due to the Spring Festival, with tin prices lacking clear direction [15] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices showed a slight rebound, but market changes remain limited due to tight upstream raw material supplies [17] - Trade and downstream inquiries have largely ceased, leading to a quiet market atmosphere [18] - As the Spring Festival approaches, many smelting plants are reducing operations, tightening available market supply [19] - Post-holiday, prices may rise again due to supply constraints and cost support from raw materials [22] Nickel Industry - Indonesia's nickel mining quota reduction policy for 2026 has cut the overall quota from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260-270 million tons, a reduction of nearly 30% [22] - Supply disruptions are exacerbated by seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines and Indonesia, leading to a tight supply situation [22] - Downstream companies are optimistic about post-holiday market conditions, with some early stockpiling observed [23] Companies to Watch - Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, Xianglu Tungsten [2] - Lithium: Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, Zhongkuang Resources, Salt Lake Co. [9] - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous, Beijiete, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining [13] - Tin: Huaxi Nonferrous, Xiyang Silver Tin [16] - Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Tengyuan Cobalt [24]

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report by Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on green finance and new energy, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For nickel, new disturbances from Indonesia have emerged, and the departure of pre - holiday funds limits price elasticity. For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [2][4] Summary of Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 133,350 yuan, a decrease of 1,170 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,740 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 135,669, and that of the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 61,676 [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for certain products. China has implemented export license management for some steel products. Indonesia may adjust the nickel ore production quota and revise the benchmark price formula. There are also issues such as mine violations, port monopolies, and ship accidents [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [10] 2. Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Downstream replenishment has temporarily ended, and the pre - holiday price fluctuation on the disk has decreased [12] Summary of Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 137,340 yuan, an increase of 340 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 10,090, and the open interest increased by 1,918. The spot - 2605 basis was - 1,340 yuan [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada has introduced incentives and stricter emission standards to stimulate domestic electric vehicle production. Whensheng Technology has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Huineng Technology [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] 3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For industrial silicon, a small number of upstream producers have resumed production, and the sentiment has suppressed the price on the disk. For polysilicon, it is in a spot vacuum period, and attention should be paid to post - holiday transactions [17] Summary of Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,375 yuan, a decrease of 75 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 11,212, and the open interest increased by 8,477. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 48,950 yuan, a decrease of 420 yuan [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada has launched a second anti - dumping and anti - subsidy sunset review investigation on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules and laminates [17][19] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend, while that of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on February 10, 2026, focusing on green finance and new energy, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia [2][4] - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has moved up [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Inventory has accumulated, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2][15] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the post - holiday spot transactions [2][16] Summary by Commodity Nickel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,520 yuan, with various changes compared to previous periods. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 417,105 lots, showing a significant decline. The price of 1 imported nickel was 134,600 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and there are plans to adjust nickel ore production targets. There are also issues such as potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land by some mines, and the investigation of monopoly behavior in the port of IMIP Park [4][5][7] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Stainless steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,735 yuan, and the trading volume was 202,243 lots, showing a downward trend. The prices of various stainless steel products in the market also had different changes [4] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [10] Lithium carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 137,000 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators compared to previous periods. The prices of raw materials and lithium salts in the industrial chain also showed different fluctuations [12] - **Macro and industry news**: Beijing has launched an automobile trade - in subsidy plan, and Ningxia's cumulative external power transmission has exceeded 900 billion kWh [13][14] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [14] Industrial silicon - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,450 yuan/ton, and the industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.2 million tons, showing an upward trend [16] - **Macro and industry news**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will decline compared to 2025 and will return to an upward trend after 2027 [16][18] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18] Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,370 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 34.1 million tons, showing an increase [16] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices weakened, with a sharp drop of over 10,000 yuan per ton on Monday. Spot market sentiment was cautious, and traders' holiday - waiting sentiment increased. As nickel prices declined further, some downstream buyers entered the market. In terms of supply, January production continued to rise, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and LME inventories decreased slightly, with sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, there was strong bullish sentiment for nickel ore, but there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices began to decline, and the cost line shifted downward. Stainless - steel inventories continued to rise, which may put pressure on prices in the short term. Although the production and sales data of new - energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, and positions are decreasing. The MACD shows a downward trend. With five trading days before the holiday, funds may continue to flow out. It is recommended to control positions and hold a light position during the holiday [80]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices weakened this week, with supply increasing and demand showing mixed signals. The industrial chain presented different situations for various products. - **Strategies**: Hold a small amount of short positions for both the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract, and stop losses if the price returns above the 20 - day moving average [9][10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 57 to 61, a 7.02% increase; NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 52 to 56, a 7.69% increase. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: Battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 33,000 to 32,150, a 2.58% decrease; electroplating - grade remained unchanged at 32,500. - **Nickel - Iron**: Low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,550; high - nickel iron in Shandong decreased from 1,060 to 1,045, a 1.42% decrease. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 149,500 to 141,360, a 5.44% decrease; Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 142,150 to 130,810, a 7.98% decrease; Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased from 150,100 to 140,200, a 6.60% decrease. - **Stainless Steel**: 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,037.5 to 14,987.5, a 0.33% decrease [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel ore prices increased by $4 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight remained stable. - **Inventory**: On February 5, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 11.0853 million wet tons, a decrease of 638,100 wet tons or 5.44% from the previous period. - **Import**: In December 2025, nickel ore imports were 1.9928 million tons, a 40.33% decrease from the previous month and a 31.13% increase year - on - year. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a 10.94% increase year - on - year [18] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Electrolytic nickel prices weakened this week, with Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all decreasing. - **Spot**: Market sentiment was cautious this week, and as prices declined, some downstream buyers made purchases. Traders' holiday - waiting sentiment was strong. - **Long - term Fundamentals**: The global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new - energy field will provide key structural support. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The global nickel supply and demand are in a state of slight surplus in some years. - **Production**: In January 2026, China's refined nickel production was 35,225 tons, a 14.34% increase from the previous month and a 4.91% increase year - on - year. The estimated production in February 2026 is 32,260 tons, a decrease of 8.42% from the previous month and a 2.68% decrease year - on - year. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394.299 tons, a significant increase from the previous month and year - on - year. Exports were 13,296.309 tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In December 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 206,100 tons in physical terms and 45,400 tons in metal terms. The estimated production in January 2026 is 47,600 metal tons. Battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel prices decreased, while electroplating - grade remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,282 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 2,061 tons to 57,457 tons [24][26][27][30][34][37][40] 3.2.4 Nickel - Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: Low - nickel iron prices remained unchanged, while high - nickel iron prices decreased. - **Production**: In December 2025, China's nickel - pig iron production was 21,400 tons in metal terms, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decrease. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 996,000 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 11.149 million tons, a 24.2% increase year - on - year. - **Inventory**: In December, the negotiable inventory of nickel - iron was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [45][47][50][53] 3.2.5 Stainless - Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. - **Production**: In December, stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, with a decrease in 300 - series production. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that stainless - steel imports were 145,000 tons and exports were 485,000 tons. - **Inventory**: On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a 12,300 - ton increase from the previous period [58][63][66][69] 3.2.6 New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales**: In December, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2%. - **Power Battery**: In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power - battery installation volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [74][77] 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, positions are decreasing, and the MACD shows a downward trend. With five trading days before the holiday, funds may continue to flow out. It is recommended to control positions and hold a light position during the holiday [80] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Bullish sentiment is strong, but there is a contrast between overseas and domestic markets. - **Nickel - Iron**: Prices are falling, and the cost line is shifting downward. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories are rising, which may put pressure on prices. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: Production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, and a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown following a funding agreement [3][19] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China rose to a three-month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][19] - Copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, supporting a tight supply sentiment, while February's estimated electrolytic copper production is projected at 1.1435 million tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month but an 8.1% increase year-on-year [4][20] - The net imports of refined copper in December fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories increased by 29,000 tons to 1.123 million tons as of February 6, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - The market anticipates short-term price corrections due to demand disruptions around the Chinese New Year, but strong support is seen below 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating continued investor interest [5][21] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel ore premiums have increased, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising by $4.5/ton to $30/ton, while refined nickel production is expected to decline by 5% month-on-month to 35,800 tons [6][22] - The demand for new energy materials is projected to decrease, with February's production of ternary precursors expected to drop by 7% to 80,790 tons and ternary materials by 15% to 69,250 tons [6][22] - Stainless steel prices have generally declined, with total social inventory increasing by 1.29% week-on-week to 965,000 tons [6][22] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with nickel prices experiencing fluctuations, but cost support remains strong due to supply concerns from Indonesia [7][23] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching 2,824 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2%, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 5.1% to 23,315 yuan/ton [8][24] - The operating rate of alumina plants increased by 0.53% to 77.8%, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise to 44.1 million tons, with a production of 343,200 tons [8][24] - Social inventories of alumina increased by 5,020 tons to 176,000 tons, while aluminum ingots saw a weekly increase of 5,400 tons to 836,000 tons [9][25] - The market anticipates a potential rebound in aluminum prices post-holiday, with attention on inventory levels and external market influences during the holiday period [9][26] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping to 8,500 yuan/ton, while polysilicon prices increased to 49,285 yuan/ton [11][27] - The production of industrial silicon decreased by 10,340 tons to 63,300 tons, with a notable reduction in operational furnaces [11][27] - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with significant price adjustments and a slowdown in new orders due to seasonal factors [12][28] - The market is expected to face challenges as supply tightens, with a focus on the upcoming demand recovery in the traditional peak season [12][29] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with a projected decline of 16.3% in February [14][30] - The production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is also expected to decline, reflecting a broader trend in the lithium battery supply chain [14][31] - Social inventories of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [14][33] - Market sentiment remains volatile, with price fluctuations influenced by downstream demand and strategic stocking behaviors ahead of the holiday [14][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The marginal situation is dominated by macro - sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts are occurring in February, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the lower end [2][6]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to changes in the macro - sentiment of commodities [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2][16]. - Polysilicon: It is in a range - bound pattern [2][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 134,430, down 3,250 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,810, down 15 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads are also provided [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products; Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel ore production target and revise the benchmark price formula; there are issues such as ship accidents and port monopoly investigations [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral state [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract is 132,780, down 14,440 from the previous day. Other data including trading volume, positions, and prices of related lithium products are presented [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The weekly production decreased by 825 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 2019 tons; Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a stake in Huirong Mining [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral state [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,605, down 245 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 49,550, down 1,645 from the previous day. Data on trading volume, positions, spreads, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Hainan Province has announced its 2026 major project investment plan, including 3 photovoltaic projects [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral state [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].