热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 钢材：春节因素供需双弱，钢价或将窄幅震荡 （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 需求：2025年全国固定资产投资同比下降3.8%，较1-11月降幅扩大1.2个百分点。其中制造业投资同比 增长0.6%，较1-11月增幅收窄1.3个百分点；基础设施投资同比下降2.2%，较1-11月降幅扩大1.1个百分 点；房地产开发投资比上年下降17.2%，较1-11月降幅扩大1.3个百分点。投资增速延续全面下行态势， 钢材需求表现低迷。1月螺纹周均表需182万吨，环比12月回落12%；1月热卷周均表需311万吨，环比12 月回升1%。1月钢材需求螺纹弱热卷强，基本符合季节性特征。2月份受春节长假影响，钢材市场需求 将趋近于停滞。 供应：2025年我国粗钢产量9.61亿吨，同比减少4422万吨，降幅4.4%；2025年我国生铁产量8.36亿吨， 同比减少2586万吨，降幅3%。1月份产量略有回升，铁水产量回升0.55万吨，五大材产量回升7.99万 吨，其中螺纹产量回升11.61万吨，热卷产量回升4.7万吨。2月份电炉钢厂逐步放 ...

Price Trends - In 2025, the average price of scrap steel is projected to be 2244.74 CNY/ton, a decrease of 222.52 CNY/ton compared to 2024. The price fluctuated between a high of 2294 CNY/ton in August and September and a low of 2175 CNY/ton in mid-January [1] - The price volatility range for scrap steel is expected to narrow, reducing market arbitrage opportunities [1] Supply and Demand - Total supply of scrap steel in 2025 is estimated at 280 million tons, an increase of 8.55% year-on-year, with a decrease in self-produced scrap and an increase in recycled and industrial scrap [2] - Scrap steel consumption in 2025 is projected to be 264 million tons, up 8.19% from 2024, with a notable increase in consumption from Hebei province, which is expected to reach 55 million tons, a 22.09% increase [2] Profitability - In 2025, the average profit for long-process steel enterprises in Jiangsu is expected to be 98 CNY/ton, a 47.7% increase from 66 CNY/ton in 2024. However, independent electric arc furnace profits are projected to be -11 CNY/ton, down from 16 CNY/ton in 2024 [3] - The average scrap ratio for long-process steel enterprises is expected to increase to 13.75%, a rise of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year [3] Imports - The import volume of recycled steel raw materials is expected to be 250,000 tons in 2025, reflecting a modest increase of 0.89% from 2024, remaining at a low level due to price discrepancies and strict customs regulations [4] 2026 Market Outlook - The scrap steel market is anticipated to continue showing a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, influenced by policy and cost factors [5] - The utilization rate of electric arc furnace capacity is expected to improve, which will enhance scrap steel demand, while the introduction of carbon emission taxes may encourage long-process steel enterprises to increase their scrap usage [6] - The projected scrap steel consumption for 2026 is around 280 million tons, with supply expected to reach approximately 320 million tons, indicating a tight balance in the market [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Scrap Steel Industry Weekly Report - Focus on Subsequent Changes in Steel Mill Profits [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yan Zhini [1] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022076 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the scrap steel market saw a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with a decline in inventory and inventory-to-sales ratio, driving prices up slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel are healthy, with strong support at the bottom, but the accumulation of steel inventory may suppress the upward movement of steel prices, and steel mill profits have also shrunk, so their willingness to raise scrap steel prices is low. It is expected that scrap steel prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future, and the spread between rebar and scrap steel may further narrow [3]. Summary by Directory Supply - This week, the scrap steel arrivals at 25 steel mills were 511,700 tons (+27,400 tons), and the average daily arrivals at Shagang were 11,800 tons (-2,700 tons) [2]. - On August 15, 2025, the scrap steel arrivals at 255 steel mills were 549,300 tons, a weekly increase of 54,841 tons; the arrivals at 132 long - process steel mills were 270,000 tons, a weekly increase of 18,891 tons; the arrivals at 89 short - process steel mills were 177,050 tons, a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [7]. Demand - This week, the daily consumption of scrap steel at 255 steel mills was 557,900 tons (+6,100 tons), with an increase in both long - and short - process steel mills [2]. - From August 7 to August 14, 2025, the daily consumption of scrap steel at 255 steel mills increased by 6,128 tons; at 132 long - process steel mills, it increased by 1,078 tons; at 89 short - process steel mills, it increased by 7,700 tons [8]. Inventory - The inventory at national processing bases decreased slightly, while the arrivals at steel mills increased. This may be due to the increase in the fear of price drops among bases after the decline in the futures market in the second half of the week, leading to the release of goods [2]. - This week, the scrap steel inventory at steel mills decreased. On August 14, 2025, the scrap steel inventory at 255 steel mills was 4,532,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,180 tons; at 132 long - process steel mills, it was 2,187,450 tons, a weekly decrease of 74,080 tons; at 89 short - process steel mills, it was 1,236,850 tons, a weekly decrease of 53,200 tons [2][8]. - The scrap steel social inventory decreased across the country. On August 15, 2025, the national scrap steel social inventory was 416,350 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,320 tons [9]. Price and Spread - The national Fubao comprehensive price index of scrap steel increased slightly. On August 14, 2025, the national non - tax - included scrap steel price index was 2,258.2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 12 yuan/ton [3]. - This week, the iron - scrap spread slightly increased, and the rebar - scrap spread significantly decreased, indicating that the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel compared to hot metal has recovered, but from a profit perspective, the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap steel has decreased, and the profits of electric arc furnaces have shrunk [2]. - On August 15, 2025, the iron - scrap spread was - 111 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap spread in East China (including tax) was 769 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton [9]. Steel Mill Profits - This week, the profits of both long - and short - process steel mills shrank. The profits of long - process large - scale steel products still ranged from 100 to 200 yuan. The profits of short - process steel mills shrank in many regions, with only an increase in North China. Among electric arc furnaces, there were still off - peak electricity profits in Hebei and Sichuan, while there were no off - peak electricity profits in Fujian, Guangdong, Hubei, and Jiangsu, but the decline was not significant, not reaching the level of significant production cuts in electric arc furnaces [2].