Report Information - Report name: Scrap Steel Morning Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [1] - Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Price Data - Scrap steel prices in different regions from March 25 to March 31, 2026 are presented, including East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China [2] - The prices in East China remained at 2214 on March 25 - 26, dropped to 2207 on March 27, and then to 2203 on March 30 - 31 [2] - In North China, the prices were 2286 on March 25 - 26, 2281 on March 27, and 2278 on March 30 - 31 [2] - Central China's prices were 2081 from March 25 - 27, dropped to 2077 on March 30 - 31 [2] - South China's prices were 2252 on March 25 - 26, 2250 on March 27, 2251 on March 30, and 2247 on March 31 [2] - Northeast China's prices were 2237 on March 25 - 26, 2239 on March 27, 2238 on March 30, and 2245 on March 31 [2] - Southwest China's prices were 2135 from March 25 - 27 and 2145 on March 30 - 31 [2] - The环比 (compared to the previous period) showed 0 change in East China, North China, and Southwest China, -4 in South China, and 7 in Northeast China [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract decreased with reduced positions. The macro - situation shows that according to US officials, President Trump told his assistants that he is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the fundamentals of rebar changed little, the situation between the US and Iran showed signs of easing, and the decline in oil prices led to a downward trend in the black - series commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red bar turns green. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,121.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the position volume was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 58,835 lots, a decrease of 10,402 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,613 tons, with no change; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the RB main contract was 139.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports (weekly) was 16,996.84 million tons, a decrease of 105.83 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants (weekly) was 49.76 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills (weekly) was 691.73 million tons, an increase of 3.95 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan (weekly) was 239.94 million tons, a decrease of 9.59 million tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the output of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 197.87 million tons, a decrease of 5.46 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 43.37%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 219.16 million tons, a decrease of 17.04 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities (weekly) was 642.75 million tons, a decrease of 10.46 million tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills (weekly) was 69.79%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel (monthly) was 747.00 million tons, an increase of 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index (monthly) was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion (monthly) was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion (monthly) was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (monthly) was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area (monthly) was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 124,518 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area (monthly) was 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 53,686 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing (monthly) was 40,236.00 million square meters, an increase of 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On March 30, US President Trump posted on a social platform that if an agreement with Iran cannot be reached in the short term and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened, he will blow up and completely raze all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - The report presents the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from March 24 to March 30, 2026, along with the环比 (month - on - month) changes [2] - The prices in East China decreased by 4 from March 24 to March 30, in North China by 3, in Central China by 4, in South China increased by 1, in Northeast China decreased by 1, and in Southwest China increased by 10 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The real - world and expected scenarios are in a state of game, leading to a differentiated performance in the sector. The cost side disturbances may be repeated, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances. The bullish expectations for the peak season are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world side remains to be verified. If the geopolitical conflict persists, price support will be strong; if it eases, prices may face a correction [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and recent fluctuations may increase [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the demand from long - process steelmaking is slowly recovering. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak equilibrium, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, and the resumption of iron - making production may be faster. There is still support from the spot cost side. After the first round of spot price increase is implemented, it is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal [3][11] - **Coking Coal**: The trading logic of coking coal futures is shifting from energy substitution to warehouse - receipt delivery. With the decline in restocking demand, continuous import pressure, and the approaching delivery of the main contract, the futures price may be under pressure. However, geopolitical disturbances will still support the futures price, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectations of rising manganese ore import costs and electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, considering the loose supply - demand situation, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer in the manganese - silicon market, there is still a risk of correction in the medium - to - long - term valuation above the cost level [3][14][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectation of increasing electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers [6][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand situation is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][14] 3.5 Steel - The cost performance is differentiated, and the futures price operates in an oscillatory manner. The spot transaction has improved, the steel mill profitability has increased, and the production is gradually returning to normal. The downstream demand is slowly releasing, and the inventory is decreasing, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The impact of the decline in Iranian steel supply is limited in the short term. The futures price still has downward pressure, but cost - side disturbances may be repeated [8] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 30, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index increased by 0.96%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.33% on that day, decreased by 1.20% in the past 5 days, increased by 6.47% in the past month, and increased by 2.87% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the HC2605 contract rebounded with a reduction in positions. The terminal demand is resilient, and there is still support from the cost side, but the international situation is volatile with many uncertainties. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the position volume is 846,816 lots, down 72,722 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 47,685 lots, up 7,307 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 549,618 tons, up 6,457 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 169 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 12 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 792 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 16,996.84 tons, down 105.83 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 49.76 tons, down 2.59 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 691.73 tons, up 3.95 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 239.94 tons, down 9.59 tons [2] 4. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.65%, up 1.10%. The output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 305.61 tons, up 5.4 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.07%, up 1.38%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 83.85 tons, down 1.11 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 369.42 tons, down 6.91 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons; the net export volume of steel is 747 tons, up 18 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 167.24 million, down 77.74 million; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 180.52 million, down 54.13 million. The monthly output of air conditioners is 2,162.89 million, up 660.29 million; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 1,001.15 million, up 56.95 million; the monthly output of household washing machines is 1,197.50 million, down 3.80 million [2] 6. Industry News - On March 26, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.4 tons; the factory inventory was 83.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 tons; the social inventory was 369.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 tons; the total inventory was 453.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 tons; the apparent demand was 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 tons. The Ministry of Commerce determined that the measures of the Mexican government to increase import tariff rates on products from non - free - trade partners such as China constitute a trade and investment barrier [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent rebound is mainly driven by the increasing expectation of rising raw material costs, and the market will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short - term. It is advisable to participate with caution [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Information - **Futures Prices**: On March 27, 2026, RB2605 was at 3124 (down 4 from the previous day), RB2610 at 3151 (down 7), HC2605 at 3299 (down 6), and HC2610 at 3310 (down 3). The night - session closing prices were RB2605 at 3126, RB2610 at 3156, HC2605 at 3294, and HC2610 at 3309. The 5 - 10 spread for rebar was - 30 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils was - 15 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 168 yuan for the May contract and 153 yuan for the October contract [1][2] - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan (down 10), and Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coils were 3290 yuan. On March 27, the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan (down 20), and on the weekend, the ex - factory price of Hebei Tangshan common billet rose 10 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan [1][2][3] 3.2 Important News - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iranian steel plants, expected to create a rigid supply gap of 500 - 550 million tons/year, with the most prominent gaps in plates, billets, and long - products [2] - On March 27, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports in China was 66.50 million tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous day; the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 9.44 million tons, a 5.9% increase from the previous day [2] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a 1.25 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase; the daily average pig iron output was 231.09 million tons, a 2.94 - million - ton increase [2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a 2.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.87 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a 1.93 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.51 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [2] - On March 28, the single - day online signing volume of second - hand houses (including commercial properties) in Shanghai reached 1585 units, setting a new high in the past 5 years [2] 3.3 Market Fundamentals - The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly this period, consumption continued to recover, and the total inventory continued to decline, with the overall level slightly higher than the same period last year [3] - In terms of product structure, the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased; the output of rebar shrank, demand continued to recover, and the inventory pressure was not significant [3] 3.4 Valuation and Market Outlook - After the cost of the long - process steelmaking increased, it gradually approached the valley - electricity cost, which had a prominent impact on the marginal supply of rebar. The valley - electricity cost was under continuous pressure, and the current supply - demand was in a weak balance [3] - The trading strategy is to expect a shock market [3]

Group 1 - The report is a scrap steel morning report issued by the Black Team of the Research Center on March 30, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The report shows the scrap steel prices in East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China from March 23 to March 27, 2026, and the price changes compared to the previous period [2] - In East China, the price decreased by 7 from 2215 to 2207 [2] - In North China, the price decreased by 5 from 2285 to 2281 [2] - In Central China, the price remained unchanged at 2081 [2] - In South China, the price decreased by 2 from 2252 to 2250 [2] - In Northeast China, the price increased by 2 from 2237 to 2239 [2] - In Southwest China, the price remained unchanged at 2135 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report states that geopolitical and raw material factors are the main reasons, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based market for steel products [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm threaded steel and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as basis season charts of threaded steel 05 contract and hot - rolled coil 05 contract in Shanghai [6][8]. - **Production**: It shows monthly production data of pig iron and crude steel from the National Bureau of Statistics, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, and capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [20][27]. - **Import and Export**: There are charts of steel and billet import quantities, as well as monthly export values of steel and billet [29][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: It includes weekly apparent demand and lunar total inventory charts of five major steel products, threaded steel, and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area [37][42][41][56]. 3.2 April Market Outlook - **Profit**: The report provides charts of cash profits of East China electric furnaces (flat - rate electricity) and North China threaded steel long - process, as well as weekly production charts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil [67][71]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: It shows data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area of 100 large and medium - sized cities, and other economic indicators [73][76]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: There are charts of year - on - year growth rate of monthly sales area of commercial housing, year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts, year - on - year growth rate of housing completion area, and year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds [79][85]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: It presents data on the issuance amount of local government special bonds, loan demand index for infrastructure, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, and month - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment [103][106]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: The report includes charts of various sub - items of PMI, manufacturing PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and month - on - year growth rate of industrial added value [118][120]. - **Industry - Specific Production**: It shows monthly production data of Chinese automobiles, year - on - year growth rate of civil steel ship production, monthly production of Chinese excavators, and monthly production of Chinese metal containers [130][136].

Report Summary Report Information - The report is the Scrap Steel Morning Report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on March 27, 2026 [1] Regional Scrap Steel Prices - The report provides scrap steel prices in East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China from March 20 to March 26, 2026. For example, on March 20, the prices were 2218 in East China, 2286 in North China, 2081 in Central China, 2251 in South China, 2241 in Northeast China, and 2137 in Southwest China [2] - The price changes from March 20 to March 26 show slight fluctuations in different regions, and the环比 (month - on - month) change is 0 for all regions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost support weakens, and the futures prices fall from high levels. The impact of geopolitical conflicts weakens, but there are still expectations of coking coal warehouse - receipt pressure, causing coal - coke prices to decline from high levels. Iron ore prices fluctuate at high levels due to repeated disturbances on the supply side. Alloys lack fundamental highlights, and their futures prices loosen at high levels. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. Under the weakening of cost support, the futures market adjusts weakly. There may be repeated disturbances on the cost side in the later stage, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upper - limit valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue in a weak - balance state, expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the long - process demand recovers slowly. The fundamentals continue in a weak - balance pattern, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the actual recovery progress of terminal demand in the future [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both the supply and demand of coke increase. The resumption speed of hot metal production may be faster, and the spot cost price continues to rise. The expectation of spot price increase for coke is strong, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflict eases and trading returns to fundamentals, there will still be callback pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [12]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove for the time being. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer of manganese silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a callback risk for the valuation level of the futures market higher than the cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuations in manganese ore prices and the changes in manufacturers' production levels [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: Under the current geopolitical environment, the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties in the future is difficult to disprove for the time being. However, the problem of over - capacity in silicon iron is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, gradually shifting the supply - demand relationship to a loose state. In the medium - to - long term, when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers, there is still a callback risk. It is necessary to pay attention to the adjustment range of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas and the resumption of production trends of manufacturers [18]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory in the middle and downstream is moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot continue to improve, the high inventory will always suppress prices [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The glass melting volume is stable, the supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15]. 3.5 Steel - The cost support weakens, and the futures performance is weak. The spot trading volume is average. The steel mill profitability rate increases month - on - month, and hot metal production resumes. The downstream gradually resumes work, and the rigid demand and restocking demand are slowly released. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the fundamentals have limited highlights. The futures price adjusts weakly, but there may be repeated disturbances on the cost side. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [8].