1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday in 2025, the domestic scrap steel market is expected to show a "first rising then falling" trend; the short - term trend of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to be a bearish sideways market, and they are expected to trade in a narrow range on the first trading day after the holiday, with a recommendation to wait and see [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Review - Before the holiday, the SM2601 contract closed at 5758, and the SF2511 contract closed at 5494 [1] Important Information - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 16.0072 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2786 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.7256 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5863 million tons; the social inventory was 11.2816 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6923 million tons [1] - During the National Day holiday, steel mills mainly consumed their original inventory. After the holiday, there is a phased replenishment demand, but the limited profit margins of steel mills suppress the demand for scrap steel [1] Market Logic - For manganese silicon in September, the monthly output decreased by about 10,000 tons, with a decline of over 4% in the main production areas of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and a slight increase in the start - up in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan due to low hydropower costs. For ferrosilicon, the national output in September was 488,230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% or 5,070 tons, with only Inner Mongolia seeing a month - on - month increase [1] - Before the National Day, the tender pricing for September by steel mills for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon ended. The overall demand increased while the procurement price decreased month - on - month. The demand increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" was not significant. After the National Day holiday, the shipment pressure of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon producers may continue to increase, and whether downstream steel mills can maintain high - level operations remains to be seen [1] - The overseas price of manganese ore is relatively firm, and the prices of coking coal and coke were strong before the holiday. It is expected that the cost support for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is strong. With producers continuing to incur losses, the start - up rate may continue to decline, and the supply - demand situation may improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of post - holiday policy expectations on market sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - On the first trading day after the holiday, ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are expected to trade in a narrow range within the range, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]