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巴比食品:2025年业绩快报点评-20260204
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-04 04:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.859 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 273 million, a slight decline of 1.30%. The adjusted net profit reached 245 million, reflecting a growth of 16.49% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the company is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth due to a reduction in delivery subsidies in Q4, but anticipates a significant acceleration in new store openings in 2026, potentially leading to a "second Bobi" [2][8]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions and is expected to increase its store count significantly, with a focus on replicating successful store models [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 1.671 billion, with a growth rate of 2.5%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to reach 1.861 billion, growing by 11.4%, and further increasing to 2.084 billion in 2026E, with a growth rate of 12.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 277 million in 2024A, decreasing slightly to 273 million in 2025E, but expected to rebound to 324 million in 2026E, reflecting an 18.5% growth [4]. - The report projects an EPS of 1.14 for 2025, with estimates of 1.35 and 1.70 for 2026 and 2027 respectively, maintaining a target price of 35.6 yuan based on a P/E ratio of 26 times for 2026 [4][8].