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中国电影(600977):H1业绩仍承压,创作发行下滑明显
HTSC· 2025-08-27 11:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 14.26 [7][8]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance remains under pressure, with total revenue of RMB 1.717 billion, down 19.13% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 110 million, compared to a profit of RMB 204 million in the same period last year [1][2]. - The decline in performance is primarily due to the underperformance of the company's major films at the box office, although there are numerous projects in development and a recovery in the box office market since the beginning of the year is anticipated to support a rebound in performance [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of RMB 1.717 billion, a decrease of 19.13% year-on-year. The distribution business generated RMB 651 million, down 27.48%, while the creation business saw revenue of RMB 120 million, down 56.99%. The exhibition business, however, achieved revenue of RMB 521 million, an increase of 9.98% [2]. - The overall gross margin was 5.44%, a decline of 20.49 percentage points, mainly due to lower gross margins from the company's major films [2]. Market Position and Projects - As of H1 2025, the company has released 315 films, achieving a total box office of RMB 23.849 billion, which accounts for 90.39% of the national box office. The company also led or participated in the distribution of the top ten domestic and imported films [3]. - The company has a rich project pipeline with nearly 90 projects in development, including original projects and youth film initiatives, indicating a strong future potential for box office performance [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 309 million, RMB 634 million, and RMB 739 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The valuation for 2026 is set at a PE of 42 times, leading to a target price of RMB 14.26 [5][11].