Summary of Conference Call on Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry has maintained relatively stable prices since 2025, with the price for 500 grams in North China at approximately 1.25 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.05 yuan due to reduced income for front-end franchisees [1][3][5] - The cost structure in North China limits further price declines, particularly in Hebei, a late grain-producing area [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Stability and Adjustments**: - The express delivery prices have remained stable in 2025, with minor fluctuations. The average price for 500 grams is around 1.25 yuan, down 0.05 yuan from the previous year [1][3][11] - Price increases in North China typically occur in mid-September, with actual increases implemented in October, averaging around 0.20 yuan [1][5][6] - Companies must be cautious in price adjustments to avoid customer loss, balancing between competitive pricing and maintaining market share [1][7] - **Impact of Headquarters Costs on Pricing**: - Headquarters' cost increases do not always translate directly to end-user prices. For instance, a 0.10 yuan increase in headquarters' costs may result in only a 0.02 to 0.03 yuan increase for customers [4][6] - Franchisees often absorb part of the cost increases to remain competitive, typically taking on 0.06 to 0.07 yuan of the loss [4][6] - **Franchisee Income and Market Dynamics**: - The decline in income for front-end franchisees has contributed to the overall price decrease in the industry. Franchisees are pressured to lower prices to maintain market share [5][12] - Franchisees require a profit margin of approximately 0.20 to 0.30 yuan per order to cover losses and achieve profitability [13][14] - **Seasonal and Structural Challenges**: - Franchisees in North China face significant operational pressures, with many reporting losses in the range of 2 to 4 million yuan due to seasonal demand fluctuations and high fixed costs [12][22] - The complexity of product structures and reliance on manual operations hinder cost reduction efforts during off-peak seasons [22][23] Additional Important Insights - **Role of "Yellow Cattle" (Resellers)**: - Resellers play a significant role in the express delivery market by offering lower prices to attract business, with some companies relying heavily on them while others focus on direct customer service [15][16] - The price offered to resellers is typically lower than that for direct customers, impacting overall profitability [16][17] - **Regulatory Environment and Coordination**: - Price adjustments in regions like Guangdong are coordinated under the guidance of regulatory bodies, which may influence similar actions in North China [10][20] - The potential for price increases in North China is contingent on the success of price adjustments in Guangdong and the establishment of a nationwide regulatory framework [20] - **Profit Distribution and Cost Management**: - In North China, well-managed franchisees may retain around 0.10 yuan per package after costs, while poorly managed ones face penalties that erode profit margins [21] - The need for fixed costs during off-peak seasons, such as labor and facility expenses, exacerbates financial challenges for franchisees [24]

在各行业"反内卷"的背景下，快递行业的新一轮涨价正在到来。 有消息显示，8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上。按照有关部门要求， 各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则将遭受重罚。 多位快递企业人士对南都N视频记者证实了该消息，"确实是涨价了，0.1kg不能低于1.4元，已经开始 了。" 7月30日，福建省快递协会在《致全省快递行业同仁的一封信》中披露：福建全省2025年上半年快递业 务量同比增长11.41%，但单价同比下降4.5%（单票下降约0.32元），部分区域甚至出现"8毛发全国"的 极端低价，末端网点单票毛利低于0.1元的情况令人忧心。"内卷是行业的无效内耗，不仅严重挤压企业 合理利润空间，更直接损害服务质量和从业人员合法权益。"该协会倡议：摒弃"价格战"思维，坚持 以"提质增效"为核心目标，推动发展模式从粗放的"跑马圈地"转向精细的"精耕细作"。 监管引导和托底 不过有加盟商担忧，如果同行不遵守调价规则，将会对网点带来影响，造成客户流失，还是白费功夫。 还有从业者直言，与其调整底价，更关注派送端网点的派费是否上调。 今年上半年，A股快递企业单票价格持续下滑，二季度部分 ...