Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is ensuring uninterrupted service during the Spring Festival, addressing consumer concerns about potential delivery halts, while also focusing on reducing internal competition and improving profitability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Service Operations During Spring Festival - Multiple express companies, including Zhongtong Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, have confirmed that they will maintain normal operations during the Spring Festival, with specific arrangements for employee shifts to ensure service continuity [1][3]. - Zhongtong Express will operate from February 16 to February 21, while Jitu Express has planned resource allocation to ensure operational stability during the holiday period [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Financial Performance - The express delivery sector is experiencing a "reverse involution," leading to an increase in single-ticket revenue for companies like Shentong Express and Yunda Express, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [2][6]. - From late 2025, the industry has shifted from price competition to profit recovery, with Yunda Express reporting a 5.9% year-on-year increase in single-ticket revenue in December 2025 [6]. Group 3: Fundraising and Financial Strategies - Zhongtong Express plans to issue $1.5 billion in convertible senior notes, with a net amount of approximately $1.404 billion allocated for refinancing and general corporate purposes [7]. - Shentong Express intends to issue medium-term notes not exceeding 2 billion yuan to enhance liquidity and support project development [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the express delivery industry is in the early stages of an upward cycle, with improving profitability and a shift towards higher service quality, which is expected to foster sustainable development [7].

鲁斯嘉 长江证券交运分析师: 尊敬的各位投资者，大家晚上好，我是长江交运韩云超团队的卢思佳。今天晚上给大家来 汇报一下我们近期发布的中通快递深度报告。中道豫州稳潮头，通达全网筑壁垒。那么在 25 年快递行业经历了反内卷之后，我们觉得电商的生态其实发生了非常大的转变。那么无 论是电商税的这个全面的合规征收，还是快递行业的这种反内卷，那么都让快递的这个格 局产生了非常深远的这种影响。那么展望未来，我们觉得快递行业将重新进入到一个份额 加速向头部集中的这么一个状态。 那么对于快递行业目前的龙头老大中通来讲，过去的股价一直处在被低估的状态。那么我 们觉得随着份额重新向头部集中，中通将迎来一个份额、利润以及估值三个维度的这种三 基，那么在这个时间点上，给大家做一下重大的这个推荐。那么这篇报告主要分成三个部 分。第一个是对中通过去的发展历史，做一个简单的回顾，去看一下中通在过去究竟凭借 什么从行业当中最年轻的一家公司，一跃成为行业的领头羊。第二个，是在过去两年，24 年以及 25 年的一季度，那么中通为什么份额出现了阶段性的回落？ 以及第三块，那么随着外部竞争环境的变化，中通的龙头优势将重新再次回归。那么首先 第一个，我 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express maintains significant competitive advantages, including leading market share, superior network operational capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO's strategy of "pursuing both volume and quality" is expected to enhance its market share as the demand structure in the express delivery industry optimizes due to price increases and e-commerce taxation [3] - Long-term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is anticipated to develop a diversified service system, leading to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits [1] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the industry through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network services in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery fee model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Company Highlights - ZTO Express's competitive advantages remain strong, with expectations for continued market share growth and an optimized competitive landscape [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% [3][5] - The current stock price is considered to be at a low point, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating significant long-term investment value [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry faces multiple uncertainties regarding demand and self-discipline policies, but the trend of concentration in market share and profits among leading companies is confirmed [1] Group 1: Company Performance - YTO Express reported a December revenue of 6.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%, with a business volume of 2.884 billion pieces, up 9.04% year-on-year, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 1.43% to 2.25 yuan [1] - Yunda's December express service revenue was 4.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.49%, with a business volume of 2.148 billion pieces, down 7.37% year-on-year, and an average revenue per piece of 2.15 yuan, up 5.91% [1] - Shentong Express achieved a December revenue of 5.836 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.23%, with a business volume of 2.501 billion pieces, up 11.09% year-on-year, and an average revenue per piece of 2.33 yuan, up 15.35% [1] - SF Holding's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business in December was 27.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.41%, with express revenue reaching 20.378 billion yuan, up 3.78% year-on-year, and a business volume of 1.476 billion pieces, up 9.33% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The growth rate of express delivery business volume in December was 2.6%, significantly down due to factors such as price increases, the timing of the New Year goods festival, and e-commerce taxes [2] - The industry average price in December was 7.94 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.31 yuan, indicating a continued upward trend in pricing amid industry self-discipline [2] - There is a divergence in business volume growth among companies, with Shentong (+11.1%) and SF (+9.3%) showing positive growth, while Yunda (-7.4%) experienced a decline [3]

Core Insights - The China Express Development Index is projected to reach 466.8 by December 2025, indicating a stable and safe industry operation with continuous improvement in service quality and expansion of the foundational network [1] - The "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry is expected to exceed expectations, driven by regulatory measures, cost management, and a shift towards value competition as volume growth slows [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance - The development scale index, service quality index, development capability index, and development trend index are reported at 631.6, 650.8, 253.1, and 61.7 respectively [1] - The express delivery industry achieved record highs in business volume and revenue for the year [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - Regulatory efforts are expected to continue addressing "involution" competition, promoting a more rational pricing environment [1] - The introduction of new social security regulations is anticipated to streamline cost and price transmission pathways for companies [1] - The trend towards smaller packages is expected to weaken, while stricter compliance from e-commerce platforms may lead to a reduction in inflated delivery volumes [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a positive impact, with the industry likely to maintain healthy competition and improve profitability [2] - The successful implementation of "anti-involution" in 2021 has led to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the e-commerce express sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding and Jitu Express have announced a strategic mutual shareholding agreement worth up to HKD 8.3 billion, marking a significant move in the domestic express delivery industry towards reducing internal competition and fostering industry consolidation [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership - SF Holding will issue 226 million H shares to Jitu Express at HKD 36.74 per share, while Jitu Express will issue 822 million Class B shares to SF Holding at HKD 10.10 per share [3]. - Post-transaction, SF Holding will hold 10% of Jitu Express, and Jitu Express will hold 4.29% of SF Holding [3]. - The partnership is expected to enhance operational efficiency and pricing power in the face of competition from e-commerce platforms [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The Chinese express delivery market is projected to reach a revenue of CNY 1.8 trillion and handle 216.5 billion parcels by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 11.5% respectively [4]. - Despite growth, the industry faces challenges with low profit margins, often relying on extreme price competition, leading to a situation where the cost of delivery is unsustainable [4][6]. - The average revenue per parcel for major express companies has been declining, with significant drops noted for companies like YTO and ZTO [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift towards price increases, with regulatory bodies pushing for better pricing strategies to combat the "involution" phenomenon [6][8]. - Major express companies are beginning to raise prices, although the long-standing culture of low pricing remains a significant hurdle [8][9]. - The consolidation of the market is evident, with major players like Jitu and SF Holding seeking to enhance their market positions through strategic partnerships [10]. Group 4: Cross-Border Opportunities - The partnership aims to leverage cross-border logistics, with SF Holding focusing on high-end logistics and Jitu Express on e-commerce deliveries, creating a complementary business model [11][16]. - The international logistics market is expanding, with significant growth in overseas warehouse construction and parcel volume, particularly in Southeast Asia [11][14]. - Both companies are positioned to enhance their competitive edge in international markets, where profit margins are generally higher than in the domestic market [11][17]. Group 5: Pricing Power Challenges - The express delivery sector faces challenges in regaining pricing power against e-commerce platforms, which exert significant influence over logistics costs [17][20]. - Recent trends indicate that platforms like Shopee are increasingly building their logistics capabilities, which could further pressure express companies to lower prices [17][20]. - SF Holding's recent negotiations with Douyin highlight the importance of maintaining pricing power in lucrative segments like returns logistics [21][22].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Express Delivery Sector Key Companies Involved - **SF Express (顺丰)** - **J&T Express (极兔)** Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Collaboration Benefits** SF Express and J&T Express are collaborating to enhance cross-border logistics capabilities. SF Express will leverage J&T's end-network advantages in Southeast Asia, while J&T will utilize SF's resources in cross-border transport, warehousing, and supply chain management to improve operational efficiency. This partnership aims to expand into the European and American markets [1][2] 2. **Impact of Capital Increase** The mutual capital increase of HKD 8.3 billion will lead to SF holding 10% of J&T and J&T holding 4.3% of SF. This transaction is expected to enhance business synergy, allowing both companies to provide better services for Chinese enterprises going abroad. The collaboration may also inspire other express companies to adopt similar strategies to reduce internal competition and increase cooperation [2][7] 3. **Market Performance and Strategy** SF Express has seen a decline in market attention over the past six months, with profits falling below expectations. The company is implementing a "first increase, then optimize" strategy, focusing on volume growth before profit optimization. It is anticipated that profit growth will begin in Q4 2026, marking a potential turning point [2][9] 4. **Industry Growth Projections** The express delivery industry is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026, with an estimated growth rate in the mid-single digits (around 8%). The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with price stability and strong regulatory oversight contributing to a healthier adjustment in the market [2][10][13] 5. **J&T's Market Performance** J&T has exceeded expectations since its IPO, benefiting from high-growth and profitable markets. The company has shown strong performance in Southeast Asia, with e-commerce penetration rates expected to increase by 67%-70% in 2026. J&T's strategy in China is now focused on stable operations rather than rapid market share growth [5][6] 6. **Regulatory Environment** The regulatory landscape for the express delivery industry is becoming more stringent, with measures aimed at preventing price wars and ensuring fair treatment for franchisees and couriers. This regulatory focus is expected to facilitate a more stable pricing environment and promote the concentration of market share among leading companies [11][15][16] 7. **Investment Recommendations** Investors are advised to focus on companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, which have potential for market share growth and profitability. Additionally, Shentong Express, which has expanded into instant delivery services, and SF Express's instant delivery segment are also highlighted as promising investment opportunities [17] Other Important Insights - The collaboration between SF and J&T is likely to increase investor interest in companies with international operations within the express delivery sector [7] - The overall outlook for the express delivery industry remains optimistic, with expectations of stable customer growth and improved profitability for leading companies [13][14]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The national postal conference held on January 7, 2026, forecasts an 8% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume, reaching 2.14 billion packages in 2026 [1][2] - The conference emphasizes a shift from traditional growth models focused on scale and speed to quality improvement and reasonable growth, urging companies to abandon the "price for volume" model to curb irrational competition [1][2] - The government is expected to play a more active role in industry governance, enhancing regulatory effectiveness and establishing a comprehensive policy framework [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Jitu Express reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in package volume for Q4 2025, totaling 8.46 billion packages, with Southeast Asia and new markets seeing growth rates exceeding 70% [3] - The company plans to continue investing in infrastructure and optimizing its network partnerships to enhance operational efficiency [3] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The Jiangxi Provincial Postal Administration held a meeting to address "anti-involution" in the express delivery industry, focusing on protecting couriers' rights and standardizing delivery fee structures [4] - The meeting called for a unified delivery fee standard across the province and emphasized the need for emergency response mechanisms for issues like wage arrears [4] Group 4: Aviation Industry Insights - The civil aviation industry reported a total profit of 6.5 billion yuan in 2025, with significant increases in transportation metrics, including a 10.5% rise in total turnover and a 13.3% increase in cargo volume [7] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted a 5.7% year-on-year growth in global passenger demand for November 2025, with a record load factor of 83.7% [8] Group 5: Shipping and Port Activity - Recent unrest in Iran could impact oil exports and shipping rates, with potential scenarios including increased oil prices and shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions [9] - South Korean shipowners are actively acquiring older VLCCs, indicating a positive outlook for the VLCC market [10] - Container throughput in Chinese ports decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, while container volume increased by 6.27% [12] Group 6: Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics sector in China is operating smoothly, with national rail freight down 8.54% and highway freight traffic down 14.87% during the last week of December 2025 [13] - The supply chain logistics sector is expected to benefit from a shift towards quality and efficiency, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing promising growth potential [17]

Core Viewpoint - The national postal conference emphasizes the need to maintain industry safety, address "involution" competition, and mitigate risks in the express delivery sector, which is transitioning from growth to competition among existing players [1] Group 1: Industry Regulations and Standards - The establishment of a minimum delivery fee standard is crucial to protect the basic interests of couriers and stabilize front-end pricing, especially as declining fees threaten the survival of delivery points and service quality [4] - The cancellation of task volume assessments is equally important to support price increases, as ongoing volume assessments pressure delivery points to accept lower fees, risking customer loss if price increases are not unified [6] - The implementation of "penetrating" regulation aims to correct unreasonable management practices, promoting a balance of interests among headquarters, franchisees, and couriers, while optimizing assessment algorithms to ensure fairness and transparency [9] Group 2: Complaint and Appeal Mechanisms - Establishing a clear appeal channel for couriers is essential to protect their rights and improve service quality, as current systems often lead to a cycle of unreasonable penalties and discourage couriers from defending their rights [12] - The need to break the "free shipping" system is highlighted, as it limits consumer choice and contributes to various industry issues, suggesting that a tiered service model could empower both delivery companies and consumers [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese express delivery industry is experiencing a significant price war, exacerbated by the entry of J&T Express, which has led to increased competition and price adjustments across the sector. Despite efforts to combat "involution," the industry has struggled with declining single-ticket prices and profitability challenges, particularly for major players like SF Express [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The express delivery industry in China has been in a state of price decline for 17 years, with a notable shift in 2016 when many companies went public, leading to expectations of price stabilization above 3 yuan per ticket. However, the industry has not consolidated effectively, maintaining over five major competitors reliant on price wars [4][6]. - The entry of J&T Express from Southeast Asia has intensified the price competition, with its stock price increasing over 70% this year, contrasting sharply with the struggles of established players like SF Express [2][3]. - The express delivery market in China is highly tied to the e-commerce sector, with the competitive landscape influenced by the strategies of e-commerce platforms, which have begun to build their own logistics networks [8][28]. Group 2: J&T Express's Strategy and Performance - J&T Express has successfully leveraged its experience in Southeast Asia to establish a strong market presence, achieving profitability in China by 2024 after initially struggling with low margins [11][15]. - The company has capitalized on the rapid growth of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, where online shopping revenue has surged from 0.8% to 22% of retail sales over a decade, positioning itself as a preferred logistics partner for major e-commerce platforms [20][24]. - J&T's operational model, which includes a regional agency system, allows for lower asset investment compared to direct management models, enhancing its competitive edge in the fragmented Southeast Asian market [22][24]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Market Position - As of 2025, J&T Express's single-ticket revenue in Southeast Asia is projected to be 4.38 yuan, significantly higher than its Chinese competitors, indicating a strong pricing power in that region [15]. - The company's financial performance shows a decline in single-ticket revenue from 5.92 yuan in 2020 to 4.37 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding drop in gross margin from 29.8% to around 17-20% [30][31]. - Despite the challenges, J&T Express has maintained a competitive cost structure, with single-ticket costs decreasing from 4.15 yuan in 2020 to 3.59 yuan in the first half of 2025, allowing it to sustain profitability [31].