Core Insights - ZTO Express is striving to maintain its market position amid increasing competition in the express delivery industry [1] - The company reported a package volume of 9.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and an adjusted net profit growth of 5.0% to 2.51 billion yuan for Q3 2025 [1] - ZTO has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.2 billion to 38.7 billion, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3% to 13.8% [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, ZTO's revenue reached 11.86 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The operating cash flow for the quarter was 3.21 billion yuan, marking a 3.2% increase [3] - The total operating costs amounted to 8.909 billion yuan, a 21.4% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Competitive Landscape - ZTO's package volume lead over YTO Express decreased from 20.1 billion to 18.5 billion year-on-year [1] - The express delivery industry is undergoing a strategic shift from "high quantity" to "quality and quantity" [1][7] - The government has initiated measures to curb irrational low-price competition, leading to a stabilization and gradual increase in average express delivery prices [4] Operational Developments - ZTO has 95 sorting centers and over 31,000 collection/delivery points, with more than 6,000 direct network partners [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its end capabilities and upgrading sorting capabilities at stations to reduce delivery costs [3] - ZTO's core express single ticket revenue increased by 0.02 yuan, with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in scattered goods volume [2][3] Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is experiencing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement, with 22 provinces raising express delivery prices this year [4][5] - ZTO's strategy has been characterized as stable, while competitors like YTO are adopting more aggressive tactics [5][6] - The industry is expected to see significant changes in 2024 as the anti-involution measures are further implemented [6] Technological Advancements - ZTO is investing in technology, with AI applications across the entire logistics chain, including the use of unmanned vehicles and sorting systems [7] - The company has established over 80 subsidiaries and has a total warehouse area exceeding 2 million square meters [7] - ZTO's cloud warehouse technology recently completed nearly 200 million yuan in Series A financing, indicating strong growth potential [7]

快递行业苦"内卷"久矣。"三通一达"（圆通、申通、中通、韵达）等主要快递企业为加盟制，电商发展 起来后，各大快递公司和网点为了争抢客户，不断压低单价。根据多个网点负责人透露，在广东，此前 快递单票价格能低至几毛。 一家快递企业人士告诉南方财经记者，今年上半年快递行业价格竞争压力较大，从稳定的行业发展角度 而言，本次价格上调趋势有望持续，行业会趋向服务品质代替价格作为市场的决定因素。"从长期发展 的角度来看，从'价格战'到'价值战'的转型已经是整个快递行业共识，也能为企业利润增长带来利好。" 广东和浙江义乌的快递费涨价了。消费者不一定能察觉到，但商家对此很清楚：单票贵了几毛钱，积少 成多，成本不可避免地被抬高。 7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地区领取快 件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。 随后，浙江和广东等地快递行业相继启动"反内卷"行动。 近期，多个快递公司内部发布公告，提出上调快递底价，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至 1.4元/票以上，基层网点派费增加0.1元/票。 8月4日，多位广东的电商卖家收到了来自"三通一达" ...

华源证券表示，7-8月是快递行业传统淡季，或可看到在监管号召下，局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损 严重区域响应提价，后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看，若后续有持续的监管政 策推出，行业或保持良性竞争，从价格战向价值战转变，长期改善快递公司业绩。国信证券表示，未来 在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促使监管、竞争、 盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 消息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村 地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日 义乌邮管局已率先行动，在1.1元底价基础上再涨0.1元。中通随即响应，宣布广东地区价格提升0.1元， 缓解派件网点压力。7月24日，广东邮管局组织会议要求8月1日起提价，预计幅度0.2-0.3元。 智通财经获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10.6%，报168.1港元，成交额10.61亿港 元。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...