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海澜之家(600398):25Q3营收、净利小幅增长,等待大众消费复苏弹性
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-31 12:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6][6][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, and a net profit of 1.86 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year [6][6][6]. - The gross margin improved to 45.2% for the first three quarters of 2025, while the net profit margin remained stable at 11.6% [6][6][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of retail consumption, with projections for net profit growth in the coming years [6][6][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 21.649 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 3.3% [5][5][5]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 2.168 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [5][5][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.45 yuan, with a projected increase to 0.50 yuan in 2026 and 0.55 yuan in 2027 [5][5][5]. Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand, 海澜之家, generated revenue of 10.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, although it experienced a decline of 4% year-on-year [6][6][6]. - Online sales accounted for 30.9 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, while offline sales increased by 6.4% to 120.5 billion yuan [6][6][6]. - The company is expanding its new business model with 京东奥莱, which is expected to contribute significantly to future growth [6][6][6].