Core Viewpoint - The market performance in the first year of Trump's second term closely mirrors that of his first term, with significant increases in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, and emerging markets outperforming the U.S. market, while the dollar weakened [1][5]. Market Performance Comparison - The past 12 months have shown similarities to 2017, including Bitcoin being the best-performing asset [6]. - Stocks have outperformed bonds during this period [7]. - Emerging markets, particularly China and Japan, have outperformed U.S. stocks, while European markets lagged [8]. - The dollar has declined in both periods [9]. Notable Differences - Gold prices have surged significantly this time, contrasting with the muted response during Trump's first term, while oil prices have dropped, reversing the trend of being one of the best-performing assets in 2016-2017 [10]. - There is a notable sector divergence this time, with U.S. tech stocks leading but materials, real estate, and energy sectors declining, while in Europe, financials and utilities performed well, but healthcare, real estate, and materials saw declines [10]. Historical Warning - Historical data indicates that the second year of a presidential term is typically the worst for U.S. stocks, with high market volatility [2][12]. - The experience from Trump's first term supports this pattern, as assets that performed well in the first year, such as Bitcoin and emerging markets, saw declines in the second year, with the VIX index rising sharply by 71% in 2018 due to trade tensions impacting economic growth [16].