Core Viewpoint - The market performance in the first year of Trump's second term closely mirrors that of his first term, with significant gains in risk assets like Bitcoin, emerging markets outperforming U.S. stocks, and a weakening dollar [1][2][5][6]. Market Performance Comparison - The past 12 months have shown similarities to 2017, with emerging markets, particularly China and Japan, outperforming U.S. stocks, while European markets lagged [7]. - Both periods experienced a decline in the dollar [8]. Notable Differences - Gold prices surged significantly in the current term, contrasting with a muted response during Trump's first term, while oil prices have dropped sharply, unlike their strong performance in 2016-2017 [8]. - There is a marked sector divergence in the current market, with technology stocks leading in the U.S., while materials, real estate, and energy sectors have declined. In Europe, financials and utilities performed well, but healthcare, real estate, and materials saw declines [8]. Historical Warning - Historical data indicates that the second year of a presidential term is typically the worst for U.S. stocks, with the average and median returns for the S&P 500 being the lowest [11][12]. - Trump's first term exemplified this trend, as strong performers like Bitcoin and emerging markets turned negative in the second year, with a significant increase in market volatility, evidenced by a 71% rise in the VIX index in 2018 [14].