2025年11月21日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货价格短期见顶，盘面连续回落，符合目报预期，已建议部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）999.69点，较上期下跌5.12% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点，较上期上涨7.42% | | 11月14日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1052.43点，较上期下跌21.99% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1451.38点，较上期下跌43.72点， | 11月14日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU，较上期上涨7.1% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1094.03点，较上期上涨3.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

2025年11月21日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货价格短期见顶，盘面连续回落，符合目报预期，已建议部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）999.69点，较上期下跌5.12% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点，较上期上涨7.42% | | 11月14日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1052.43点，较上期下跌21.99% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1451.38点，较上期下跌43.72点， | 11月14日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU，较上期上涨7.1% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1094.03点，较上期上涨3.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are lower than the announced increase, suppressing the market to decline, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] - The impact of the tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - From November 14th to 17th, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 5.12% to 999.69 points, the SCFIS (European route) decreased 9.8% to 1357.67 points, the NCFI (European route) rose 7.42% to 979.34 points, the SCFIS (US - West route) fell 6.9% to 1238.42 points, and the NCFI (US - West route) dropped 21.99% to 1052.43 points [1] - From November 14th, the SCFI published price dropped 43.72 points to 1451.38 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) rose 3.4% to 1094.03 points, the SCFI European route price rose 7.1% to 1417 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) rose 2.7% to 1403.64 points, the SCFI US - West route dropped 17.59% to 1823 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US - West route) rose 3.9% to 846.24 points [1] Economic Data - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the services PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the composite PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 (previous value, forecast - 8.5) [1] - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2 (expected 52), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2] Market Conditions - On November 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1640.1, with a decline of 2.66%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 40,200 lots, an increase of 1384 lots from the previous day [2] - Bearish sentiment persists, and the overall market is under pressure due to spot freight rates being lower than the expected announced increase [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try due to large fluctuations in each contract [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]

2025年11月17日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 11月运价未达宣涨幅度,盘面多空博弈,已建议提前布局02合约,关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月14日 11月3日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 999.69点, 较上期下跌5.12% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1504.80点, 较上期上涨24.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点, 较上期上涨7.42% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1329.71点, 较上期上涨4.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1052.43点, 较上期下跌21.99% 11月14日 11月14日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1451.38点,较上期下跌43.72点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1094.03点,较上期上涨3.4% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.1% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1403.64点,较上期上涨2.7% 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's designated delivery warehouse is 90,426 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1][2] - On November 14, gold futures opened at 967.20 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 967.96 CNY and a low of 952.00 CNY, closing at 953.20 CNY, reflecting a decrease of 0.29% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 307,687 contracts, with open interest at 113,597 contracts, showing a reduction of 10,642 contracts in daily open interest [1] Group 2 - Global political and economic instability continues to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, although the sentiment can change rapidly [2] - Potential increases in U.S. tariffs could heighten economic and employment pressures, indirectly prompting the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, which would positively impact gold and silver prices [2] - Long-term bullish factors for gold remain intact, including a weaker U.S. dollar and central bank purchases driven by global economic uncertainties [2]

这当中有中澳关系缓和的原因。自2024年12月起，澳大利亚恢复了向中国出口活龙虾。此前，中国解除 了对澳大利亚龙虾长达近四年的进口禁令。 中国是全球最大的龙虾消费国和进口国，我们熟知的龙虾来源地主要是澳大利亚、新西兰等国。但事实 上，美国也中国重要的龙虾进口市场。然而受贸易战的影响，美国渔民正错失对华销售良机，而且随着 中国日益转向亚太地区的供应商，他们可能难以重夺昔日地位。 海鲜分销商表示，今年早些时候，由于中美关税问题，美国对华龙虾出口一度停滞，最高税率一度高达 三位数。尽管在今年5月，中国对美国龙虾的关税已降至25%。但与全球其他竞争对手相比，美国出口 商仍然处于劣势。 数据显示，缅因州约占美国龙虾供应量的90%，在持续的贸易不确定性下，该州渔民正转向美国国内市 场。但是仅美国买家完全无法弥补国际需求，尤其是来自中国的需求。事实上，即使是关税存在的情况 下，中国仍然消化了大部分活龙虾出口，可见中国市场对美国龙虾产业的重要性。 上个月底，中美在韩国会晤后达成了最新协议，中国同意暂停今年早些时候对美国商品征收的大部分关 税，仅保留10%的关税，这应该有助于美国龙虾出口商，但美国出口商仍将面临来自亚太地区的竞 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The market's bullish sentiment has weakened, some long positions have continued to reduce their holdings, and the market has continued to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, a 7.9% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1267.15 points, a 14.4% increase from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, a 4.24% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, a 5.58% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, a 7.14% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, a 16.4% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, a 3.6% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, a 3.3% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, a 5.4% increase from the previous period [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, the expected value was 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, the expected value was 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7, the expected value was 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index in October was -9.2, and the predicted value was -8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2, the expected value was 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, the expected value was 52; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8, the expected value was 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3] - The Sino-US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3] - On November 7, the main contract 2512 closed at 1812.0, a decrease of 1.79%, with a trading volume of 17,100 lots and an open interest of 25,900 lots, a decrease of 2525 lots from the previous day [3] Strategies - Short-term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far-month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-takers have been advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and all positions have been advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop-losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [4] - Long-term strategy: All contracts have been advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after the correction, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market performance in the first year of Trump's second term closely mirrors that of his first term, with significant gains in risk assets like Bitcoin, emerging markets outperforming U.S. stocks, and a weakening dollar [1][2][5][6]. Market Performance Comparison - The past 12 months have shown similarities to 2017, with emerging markets, particularly China and Japan, outperforming U.S. stocks, while European markets lagged [7]. - Both periods experienced a decline in the dollar [8]. Notable Differences - Gold prices surged significantly in the current term, contrasting with a muted response during Trump's first term, while oil prices have dropped sharply, unlike their strong performance in 2016-2017 [8]. - There is a marked sector divergence in the current market, with technology stocks leading in the U.S., while materials, real estate, and energy sectors have declined. In Europe, financials and utilities performed well, but healthcare, real estate, and materials saw declines [8]. Historical Warning - Historical data indicates that the second year of a presidential term is typically the worst for U.S. stocks, with the average and median returns for the S&P 500 being the lowest [11][12]. - Trump's first term exemplified this trend, as strong performers like Bitcoin and emerging markets turned negative in the second year, with a significant increase in market volatility, evidenced by a 71% rise in the VIX index in 2018 [14].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company generated net investment income and adjusted net investment income of $0.57 per share, slightly below public guidance of approximately $0.58 and $0.57 per share respectively [8] - The net asset value increased to $21.99 per share from $21.93 at the end of Q2 2025 [26] - Total investment income was $373 million, a decrease of $25 million compared to Q2 2025, primarily due to lower interest income [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated approximately $1.1 billion of new investments in Q3 2025, with 60% focused on add-on financings to existing portfolio companies [16] - New investments consisted of 65% in first lien loans, 7% in subordinated debt, 15% in asset-based finance investments, and 12% in capital calls to the joint venture [16] - The weighted average yield on accruing debt investments was 10.5%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of deals evaluated in Q3 increased by approximately 30% year over year, indicating a building momentum in M&A activity [12] - The portfolio companies reported a weighted average year-on-year EBITDA growth rate of approximately 4% [17] - Non-accruals represented 5% of the portfolio on a cost basis, down from 5.3% in Q2 2025 [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to implement a forward dividend strategy starting in Q1 2026, targeting an annualized yield of approximately 10% on net asset value [10] - The focus remains on U.S.-based direct lending and top-of-the-capital structure risk, with asset-based finance investments as a complementary part of the portfolio [14] - The company is actively monitoring tariff-related exposures and has low single-digit exposure to U.S. government-related borrowers [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the BDC industry, noting that many companies successfully navigated previous periods of volatility [5] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce rates, which will be beneficial for portfolio companies and likely generate additional M&A activity [6] - Management acknowledged pockets of weakness in economic indicators but noted a healthy labor market supported by solid corporate earnings [12] Other Important Information - The company issued $400 million of unsecured notes due 2031, which were swapped to floating rate [28] - As of September 30, available liquidity was $3.7 billion, with gross and net debt-to-equity levels at 120% and 116% respectively [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Improvement on legacy names and exit strategy - Management noted progress in restructuring efforts and expressed optimism about monetizing certain investments [33] Question: Progress on spillover and potential special distributions - Management indicated they expect to clean out a little over $100 million of spillover by year-end and may consider a one-time distribution in the first half of next year [35] Question: Dividend policy and resilience in various economic cycles - Management confirmed confidence in the base distribution level, considering various economic factors and forward curves [52] Question: Competitive factors in asset-based finance due to recent defaults - Management stated that recent defaults have not significantly impacted their competitive position, as they have avoided heavy cyclical businesses [74]

加拿大总理卡尼称已就反关税广告向特朗普致歉 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：董湘依 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 中新网11月1日电 据法新社1日报道，加拿大总理卡尼证实，他就反关税广告向美国总统特朗普致歉。 据报道，卡尼对记者表示："我确实向总统(特朗普)道歉了。"他还补充说，贸易谈判将在美国"准备好时 重启"。 据此前报道，今年以来，美加经贸关系因关税问题持续紧张。特朗普10月23日宣布，中止与加拿大的贸 易谈判，原因是他对安大略省政府赞助的一条广告不满。特朗普指责加拿大"欺骗性地"声称美国前总统 里根反对关税。 据报道，特朗普25日还称，由于加拿大安大略省投放针对美国上调关税的电视广告，他打算对进口自加 拿大的商品在现有关税基础上再加征10%关税。 ...