2025年10月10日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续回落，或将全面停火，远月大幅回落，符合日报预期，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。 | | | | 10月6日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1046.50点，较上期下跌6.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）876.82点，较上期下跌4.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD/F ...

特朗普最近遭遇了巴西总统卢拉的"最后通牒"，让很多人不禁好奇，这位80岁的巴西领导人究竟为何敢这么强硬地对待美国呢？究竟是谁拥有如此大的胆 量，让特朗普不敢轻易反驳？ 事情要追溯到上个月，特朗普的美国商务部长威廉·卢特尼克曾公开表示，印度和巴西"需要被修理"。这话看似直接，实际上却透露出美国对这两个国家的 强烈不满。巴西，作为全球少数几个敢与美国在关税问题上"硬碰硬"的国家之一，尤其让特朗普头疼。除了在贸易问题上与美国针锋相对，巴西还通过向中 国出口大豆和玉米等产品，逐步蚕食了美国的市场份额。 尽管如此，美国面对巴西时，态度却没有像对待其他盟友那样傲慢。更有意思的是，特朗普居然也遭遇了"最后通牒"！事情发生在10月6日，巴西政府发布 公告称，卢拉与特朗普进行了电话会议。尽管特朗普在社交平台上称与卢拉的通话"非常愉快"，但根据官方通报，实际情况却并非如此友好。卢拉在通话中 强硬要求美国撤销对巴西40%的关税，并再次强调美国对巴西官员的制裁是"不公正"的。 博索纳罗曾被称为"巴西版特朗普"，与特朗普有着密切的私人关系。2022年巴西总统选举，卢拉击败博索纳罗当选，已经让特朗普心情不佳。而此次博索纳 罗被判重刑，更 ...

2025年9月30日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续大幅下行，叠加资金出逃，盘面宽幅震荡，建议空仓过节控制风险，设置好止损，国庆快乐! | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 9月29日 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1120.49点, 较上期下跌10.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 717.36点, 较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 921.25点, 较上期下跌22.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 614.14点, 较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 868.22点, 较上期下跌8.11% 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点,较上期下跌83.69点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1087.41点,较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格971USD/TEU,较上期下跌7.70%% ...

9月30日，花旗指，在金价及银价分别升至每盎司3800及45美元的乐观预测目标后，该行分别上调对金 价及银价三个月目标至每盎司4000及55美元。其中银价目标上调幅度较大，反映其在金价升至每盎司 4000美元下的相对价值上行空间。该行建议在周期性及结构性顺风仍在的情况下，短期维持技术性看 涨。该行亦指出法庭对美国总统特朗普解僱美联储理事库克的裁决，以及关税问题为需要观察的关键催 化剂。 来源：滚动播报 ...

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a bottom - building process under the game of long and short positions. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The core issue is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be at the bottom - building stage. It is advisable to participate with a light position or just observe [1][3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase, a trading volume of 24,680 lots, and an open interest of 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices may have boosted the bullish sentiment, but the market pulled back after rising due to capital withdrawal in the afternoon, showing a strong - side volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The extension of Sino - US tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, and the ship and crew were safe [5]. - The United Nations stated that Israel intends to permanently control the Gaza Strip, and in July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - The Ministry of Transport and other departments issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

皮内达认为，引发关税问题的贸易分歧不会长期悬而未决。全球贸易环境难以承受钢铁与铝成本持续高 企的压力，这两种材料也是众多制造业领域的关键原材料，塑料行业也不例外。塑料行业的压力还来自 设备进口。目前美国扩大了232条款关税覆盖范围，塑料行业进口的塑料机械与模具也被纳入征税清 单。 中化新网讯 近日，美国塑料行业贸易协会(PLASTICS)表示，受关税与贸易政策不确定性抑制制造业活 动影响，2025年美国塑料行业就业岗位预计将减少1.1%，产品出货量预计下降0.5%。 该协会首席经济学家珀西·皮内达指出："总体来看，制造业增长受阻的核心原因在于高关税带来的不确 定性，以及新关税政策与修订政策的不可预测性。关税前景不明确，正拖累包括塑料行业在内的整个制 造业供应链的市场调整节奏。" 更严峻的是，关税压力可能进一步升级。PLASTICS首席执行官马特·西霍尔姆表示，美国商务部已重启 232条款关税的品类纳入流程，未来更多含钢铁、铝成分的产品可能被涉及。西霍尔姆指出："本届政府 已将此事列为优先事项，政府还表示不希望设置任何关税豁免品类，这一态度已引发美国整个制造业的 普遍不满。" 对此，PLASTICS提出抗辩：塑 ...

Core Insights - The US stock market is at historical highs, with positive expectations for corporate profit growth as the earnings season approaches [1] - Over 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have issued third-quarter earnings guidance expect to exceed analyst expectations, the highest rate in a year [1] - The proportion of companies issuing lower-than-expected profit forecasts has dropped to the lowest level in four quarters [1] Market Sentiment - Wall Street analysts project a 6.9% growth rate in earnings for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, an increase from the 6.7% forecast made in late May [1] - Improved market sentiment indicates greater investor confidence in companies' ability to withstand the impact of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [1] Tariff Impact - Concerns regarding tariffs have been prevalent, but the actual impact appears to be less severe than anticipated, with companies seemingly absorbing most of the tariff costs [1] - The ongoing debate about the timing and severity of tariff impacts continues, with analysts questioning whether the issues are merely delayed or resolved [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1200 and increase positions on the 2512 contract around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly try for the arbitrage strategy. For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary According to Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, with three - month consecutive improvement and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2] - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2] - In the US in August, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2] Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%. The trading volume was 32,600 lots, and the open interest was 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military was strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel and would continue the operation until the mission was completed [5] - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5]

Group 1 - Over 300 employees of South Korean companies have returned to South Korea after being detained by the U.S. for 8 days, reuniting with their families [1] - The detention center where the South Korean employees were held had poor living conditions, with around 80 people per room, making basic needs like eating and using the restroom difficult [1] - A lawyer representing the detained employees revealed that U.S. personnel threatened workers with prolonged detention unless they signed voluntary departure agreements [1] Group 2 - On the same day that the South Korean employees were released, the U.S. began to challenge South Korea on tariff issues [1]