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信用业务周报:如何看待近期上游周期品价格快速上涨-20250728
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-28 14:03
Market Overview - The major market indices mostly rose last week, with the STAR Market 50 index showing the largest weekly increase of 4.63%[20] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index increased to 18,486.97 billion yuan, up from 15,462.51 billion yuan, indicating a high trading activity level[33] - As of July 25, 2025, the Wind All A valuation (PE TTM) was 20.73, an increase of 0.31 from the previous week, reflecting a recovery in valuations across sectors[40] Sector Performance - Among 30 major sectors, 27 sectors experienced gains, with the materials sector leading with an increase of 5.26%, followed by the energy sector at 4.38%[24] - Notable performers included construction materials (up 8.20%), coal (up 7.98%), and steel (up 7.67%), while banking, telecommunications, and utilities sectors saw declines of 2.87%, 0.77%, and 0.27% respectively[30] Policy and Economic Outlook - Recent policies are not indicative of immediate expansion in cyclical commodities, as the current "anti-involution" policies resemble last year's "trade-in" initiatives rather than comprehensive supply-side reforms[12] - The central urban work conference did not introduce additional macroeconomic stimulus policies, suggesting a tightening of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies in the future[12] - The geopolitical implications of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project are emphasized, indicating a focus on energy security and sustainable regional development rather than traditional infrastructure expansion[12] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on technology and military sectors, as well as dividend assets outside the banking system, to navigate the current market conditions[18]