2025.05. 26 本文字数：2751，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 今年以来，国内存款利率持续走低，多家银行1年期定期存款利率日前跌破1%，传统储蓄吸引力减 弱。与此同时，银行股的"类固收"属性凸显，截至5月23日，42家A股上市银行中，超七成近12个月 股息率超4%，部分银行股息率突破8%，远超存款及国债收益。 板块行情分化，区域银行占上风 这种收益差距引发"替代效应"，推动银行股表现强劲，年初以来涨幅达7.66%。险资和公募基金纷纷 加仓银行股，持仓比例显著提升。进一步来看，银行板块内部走势分化，区域银行表现更为突出。业 内人士认为，短期内高股息策略将继续推动银行股上涨，而中长期来看，息差水平和资产质量是关 键。 银行股的存款"替代效应"凸显 自2025年起，国内存款利率持续走低，各大商业银行纷纷开启"降息潮"。目前，1年期定期存款利率 最低已跌破1%，达到历史最新低点。在传统储蓄收益吸引力不断减弱的形势下，"存银行不如买银行 股"的讨论再度升温。 根据Wind数据，截至5月23日收盘，在42家A股上市银行中，有31家银行的近12个月股息率超过了 4%。其中，平安银行、民生银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 1.3% in Q1 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 6.3%, indicating a recovery in profitability and operational stability [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with a 0.3 percentage point improvement compared to 2024 annual growth [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with a 0.7 percentage point increase from 2024 annual growth [2] - Total assets as of Q1 2025 rose by 8.0% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in scale expansion, particularly in corporate loans which surged by 17% year-on-year [2] - The average daily interest margin stood at 1.61%, remaining stable compared to 2024, with a narrowing year-on-year decline from 12 basis points to 3 basis points [2] Interest Margin Stability - The average daily interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.61%, primarily due to improved liability costs offsetting the decline in asset yields [3] - The asset yield for Q1 2025 decreased by 13 basis points to 3.11% compared to Q4 2024, attributed to the impact of LPR repricing and a general decline in loan rates [3] - The cost rate on liabilities fell by 11 basis points to 1.62% compared to Q4 2024, indicating effective cost management [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.17% as of Q1 2025, with a year-on-year decline in the NPL generation rate by 9 basis points [4] - The provision coverage ratio was 363% at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable, indicating sufficient provisioning levels [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank's net profit is projected to grow by 6.6%, 7.6%, and 7.7% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 11.84, 12.65, and 13.54 yuan [5] - The target price is set at 7.81 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.66x, indicating a potential upside of 15% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank with a target price of 7.81 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB valuation of 0.66x, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of 6.79 CNY per share [5][8]. Core Views - The bank's Q1 2025 earnings growth has shown a marginal recovery, with a 1.3% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 6.3% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reflecting improved operational performance [2][5]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17% at the end of Q1 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter, and a provision coverage ratio of 363% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Growth - In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 6.3%, driven by accelerated asset growth and improved net interest margin [2][3]. - Total assets grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with corporate loans seeing a significant increase of 17%, indicating strong credit demand in the Chongqing region [2][3]. Net Interest Margin - The average net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.61%, stable compared to 2024, supported by a reduction in funding costs [3][4]. - The asset yield decreased to 3.11%, primarily due to the impact of LPR repricing, while the cost of liabilities fell to 1.62% [3][4]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 1.17%, with a year-on-year decline in impairment losses of 19.2%, indicating improved credit quality [4][5]. - The provision coverage ratio was maintained at a robust 363%, reflecting adequate provisioning levels [4][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to achieve net profit growth of 6.6%, 7.6%, and 7.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 11.84 CNY, 12.65 CNY, and 13.54 CNY [5][6].