区域信贷需求旺盛，对公业务引领信贷高增，零售业务结构分化。公司信贷投放延续"同比多增"的良好 态势，上半年信贷新增3348 亿，同比多增1744 亿，25H1 末各项贷款余额较年初高增15.98%。1）对公 端：作为规模扩张主动力，对公贷款（不含贴现）较年初增长23.30%，上半年一般对公贷款新增3071 亿。 公司立足江苏经济沃土，持续加大对实体经济的支持力度，制造业贷款较年初增长18.90%，基础设施 贷款较年初高增31%。在巩固江苏省内（占比总贷款84.06%）根据地的同时，公司在长三角（不含江 苏）、粤港澳大湾区、京津冀三大经济圈的贷款占比均较年初有所提升，区域布局持续深化。2）零售 端： 事项： 8 月22 日，江苏银行披露2025 年中报，2025 上半年实现营业收入448.64 亿元，同比增长7.78%；实现 归母净利润202.38 亿元，同比增长8.05%。2Q25末不良贷款率0.84%，较年初下降5bp，拨备覆盖率较年 初下降19.08pct 至331.02%。 评论： 营收增速稳健，负债成本优势凸显，驱动净利息收入高增，利润增长保持韧性。1）25H1 营收同比增长 7.78%，归母净利润同 ...

（2）高风险加权资产增速可能会影响内生资本增长可持续性。25H1 公司风险加权资产增速为 18.73%，而公司去掉分红之后的年化ROE 增速为10.71%，低于加权风险资产增速8.02 个百分点，公司 高速的扩张可能会降低内生资本补充的可持续性。 投资建议：公司位于经济大省，近年来扩表速度较快；同时公司经营稳健，资产质量优秀，基本面有韧 性，分红率一直保持在30%以上。公司兼具高增长与高股息的特点，属于进可攻退可守的标的。25 年 二季度业绩保持中高速，在政策引导长期资金入市的导向下，投资价值凸显，建议积极关注。 风险提示：经济下行超预期；宏观政策力度不及预期；存款竞争加剧。 江苏银行披露2025 年半年报。25H1 营业收入、PPOP、归母利润同比增速分别为7.78%、7.89%、 8.05%，增速分别较25Q1 变动+1.57pct、+0.01pct、-0.11pct，业绩保持平稳。累计业绩驱动上，规模高 增和有效税率下降是带动业绩增长的主要动力，息差收窄、其他非息、拨备计提是主要负贡献。 核心观点：亮点：（1）资负扩张继续加速，非信贷资产高增。在资产端，25H1末生息资产同比增速高 达30.51%，在2 ...

投资要点 息差环比下行 测算25Q2 江苏银行息差环比下降18bp 至1.62%，资产收益率下行幅度大于负债成本率。①25Q2 江苏银 行资产收益率环比下行26bp 至3.49%，受贷款利率和债券市场利率下行影响，25H1 贷款和债券收益率 分别较24H2 下降17bp、31bp。 ②25Q2 江苏银行负债成本率环比下行9bp 至1.83%，随着高息存款到期和同业负债续作，存款和同业负 债成本率延续下降趋势。25H1 存款、发行债券、同业负债成本分别较24H2 下降24bp、20bp、20bp。考 虑贷款降幅和存款降幅基本匹配，预计后续息差降幅有望收窄。 资产质量改善 江苏银行业绩维持高增，息差环比下行，资产质量改善。 数据概览 25H1 江苏银行营收、归母净利润同比分别+7.8%、+8.0%，增速环比25Q1 分别提升1.6pc、-0.1pc； 25Q2 末江苏银行不良率环比下降2bp 至0.84%，拨备覆盖率环比下降12pc 至331%。 营收环比改善 江苏银行25H1 营收和利润增速均维持大个位数增长，符合市场预期。①江苏银行25H1 营收增速较 25Q1 改善，主要得益于其他非息拖累减弱，同时利息净收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Jiangyin Bank [5] Core Views - The bank's performance in the first half of 2025 shows significant recovery, with revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates of 10.45%, 14.68%, and 16.63% respectively, indicating a substantial rebound compared to the first quarter of 2025 [1] - The net interest margin has improved to 1.54% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities and a stabilization in deposit costs, which is expected to support a steady recovery in net interest margin [2] - Non-interest income has seen a remarkable increase of 37.65%, primarily driven by an 81.4% rise in investment net income, indicating effective asset management and realization of gains [2] - Asset quality has improved, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.86% and a significant increase in the provision coverage ratio to 381.22%, suggesting a healthier credit environment [3] - The bank is considering a mid-term dividend proposal, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns [4] Performance Summary - The bank's total assets reached 207.577 billion, with total loans at 131.420 billion and total deposits at 164.828 billion as of the first half of 2025 [14] - The year-on-year growth rates for operating income, pre-provision profit, and net profit for the first half of 2025 were 10.45%, 14.68%, and 16.63% respectively, showcasing strong operational performance [15] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 was 8.98%, reflecting effective capital utilization [14] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income has shown a robust growth of 37.65% in the first half of 2025, with significant contributions from investment income, which increased by 146.90% year-on-year [2][15] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The net interest margin has improved to 1.54%, with a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities by 4 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2025 [2] - The NPL ratio remained stable at 0.86%, while the overdue loan ratio decreased to 1.06%, indicating improved asset quality [3] Capital and Shareholder Returns - The bank's board has proposed a mid-term dividend plan, which is pending approval from the shareholders' meeting, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4] - The dynamic dividend yield based on the latest stock price and dividend rate is 4.31%, highlighting the bank's attractive investment proposition [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 15% year-on-year to 30.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a pre-provision profit growth of 14% to 26.7 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 9% to 15.6 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [1] Financial Performance - For 2Q25, the company achieved a revenue of 14.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase but a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline, while net profit was 7.9 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The annualized ROAE decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 13.0% due to the impact of convertible bond conversions [1] Growth Trends - As of 1H25, the company's receivables from financing leases increased by 16% year-on-year to 1,481 billion yuan, with steady progress in asset deployment [2] - Key sectors such as clean energy, transportation, and industrial equipment saw lease balances grow by 19%, 19%, and 11% respectively, while the modern services sector experienced a 41% increase [2] - The company has established partnerships with nearly 6,000 manufacturers and dealers, enhancing its customer acquisition network [2] Cost and Profitability - The annualized net interest margin improved by 0.03 percentage points to 3.71%, while the net interest spread narrowed compared to 1Q25 [3] - The asset yield for financing leases decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 6.24%, attributed to increased liquidity and competition [3] - Financing costs dropped by 0.67 percentage points to 2.25%, indicating a positive trend in cost management [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a continued decline in financing costs due to loose monetary policy, supporting margin expansion [4] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.91%, with a provision coverage ratio of 401.5%, reflecting prudent risk management [4] - Credit impairment losses increased by 37% to 580 million yuan, impacting net profit growth, but the company maintains a strong asset quality [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with the company currently trading at 1.3x and 1.2x P/B for 2025 and 2026 respectively [5] - The target price has been raised by 10.3% to 6.4 yuan, maintaining an outperform rating with a potential upside of 9.6% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in bank stock buybacks, highlighting that several banks are adjusting their buyback plans due to rising stock prices, indicating strong market confidence in the banking sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bank Buyback Plans - Chengdu Bank announced an extension of its buyback plan until April 9, 2026, due to its stock price exceeding the previously set upper limit [1][3]. - The adjusted buyback plan for Chengdu Bank includes a total investment of no less than 700 million yuan and no more than 1.4 billion yuan, with no price limit set for the buyback [3]. - Huaxia Bank plans to initiate a buyback of at least 30 million yuan starting from April 11, 2025, with the buyback subject to market conditions [4]. Group 2: Bank Performance Reports - Changshu Bank reported a 10.10% increase in revenue to 6.062 billion yuan and a 13.51% rise in net profit to 1.969 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, Changshu Bank's total assets reached 401.227 billion yuan, a 9.45% increase year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% [8]. - Other banks, including Pudong Development Bank and Hangzhou Bank, have also reported positive performance, with Hangzhou Bank achieving a 16.67% increase in net profit [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - Data from Tonghuashun indicates that eight listed banks have received shareholder buybacks or are planning to do so this year, reflecting strong market enthusiasm for bank stocks [6]. - Analysts predict that while retail non-performing loans will remain high in the second half of 2025, quality banks will begin to clear their non-performing assets first [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 10.1% and a net profit growth of 13.5% in the first half of 2025, with non-interest income increasing by 57%, driving overall revenue [2][6]. - The net interest margin stood at 2.58%, with a narrowing decline in Q2, indicating a significant lead over peers due to structural optimization and improved deposit pricing [2][6]. - The company announced its first interim dividend with a payout ratio of 25.27%, exceeding expectations, which could lead to a projected dividend yield of 4.1% for the full year 2025 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 10.1% and a net profit growth of 13.5%, with non-interest income contributing significantly [2][6]. - The net interest margin was reported at 2.58%, with a slight decrease in Q1 but a recovery in Q2, indicating strong performance compared to industry peers [2][6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 490%, reflecting solid asset quality [2][6]. - The company maintained a net NPL generation rate of 1.40%, indicating effective risk management and asset quality stability [2][6]. Dividend Policy - The company will implement an interim dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio of 25.27%, which is higher than the previous year's 19.77% [2][6]. - If the full-year dividend payout ratio reaches 25.27%, the estimated dividend per share (DPS) will increase by 28% to 0.32 yuan, with a total dividend amount expected to grow by 41% [2][6]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a leading growth rate and has a clear long-term development path, with its current price-to-book (PB) ratio at 0.83x and price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 6.2x, indicating undervaluation [2][6].

Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.8% year-on-year, totaling 17.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders increased by 3.8% to 2.2 billion yuan [1] - The annualized average ROE for the first half of 2025 was 8.7%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Total assets as of June 30, 2025, stood at 363.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and a 0.9% increase from the beginning of the year [1] - The balance of loans and receivables was 267.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1% and a 2.5% increase from the start of the year [1] - The net interest margin slightly improved to 4.51%, up 4 basis points year-on-year, with interest-earning asset yield at 8.08%, down 3 basis points [1] Sector Performance - The industrial operation segment saw a revenue decline of 12.6% to 6.3 billion yuan, with the subsidiary Hongxin Jianfa's revenue down 10.8% to 4.4 billion yuan, primarily due to a contraction in material-related businesses [2] - The gross margin for the industrial operation segment fell to 21%, a decrease of 8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by macroeconomic factors [2] Asset Quality - As of June 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.05%, down 0.02 percentage points from the beginning of the year, while the attention rate decreased to 5.51% [2] - The provision coverage ratio remained stable at 227%, with a credit cost ratio decreasing by 0.25 percentage points year-on-year to 0.23% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank, with a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.74 times for 2025 [11]. Core Insights - Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 6.06 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.97 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [4][7]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of approximately 490% [4][11]. - The bank has adopted a strategy focusing on smaller loans and credit, with 70% of new loans in the first half of 2025 being below 10 million yuan [5][7]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the bank's net interest income was 4.64 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while non-interest income surged by 57% [7][13]. - The bank's total loans reached 251.47 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.2% compared to the previous year [13]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio improved to 34.56%, down from 36.87% in 2023, indicating better operational efficiency [13]. Dividend Policy - Changshu Bank announced an interim dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, representing a payout ratio of approximately 25.3%, which is an increase from 19.8% in 2024 [7][11]. Loan and Deposit Structure - The bank's loan growth slowed to 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025, with a significant portion of new loans being smaller in size [5][10]. - Deposit growth remained robust at nearly 10%, with an increase in the proportion of demand deposits [5][7]. Asset Quality - The bank's proactive measures in asset management have led to a stable NPL generation rate of 1.05% for the first half of 2025, with significant recoveries from previously written-off loans [11][12]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a focus on managing risks associated with personal business loans [11].

Summary of Conference Call on China Banks Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese banking sector, specifically discussing the performance of covered banks in the A/H share markets, with notable mentions of China Merchants Bank (CMB) and Bank of Communications (BoCom) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, A/H share performance of covered banks has increased by 15% and 26% respectively, with CMB outperforming BoCom by 15 percentage points [1]. - The banking sector is viewed as having reached an inflection point, supported by recent market performance and evolving economic conditions [1]. 2. Earnings Expectations - Average projected growth for 2Q25 is 0.3% for both Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) and net profit for covered banks [2]. - Target prices for A/H shares have increased by 7% to 12% on average due to improved dividend outlook and reduced earnings pressure [2]. 3. Dividend Yields and Fund Flows - Current dividend yields are historically low at 4.2% for A shares and 5.0% for H shares, compared to a 10-year median of 4.7% and 6.4% respectively [3][10]. - Despite low yields, there is an anticipated increase in fund allocation to the banking sector, driven by declining deposit rates and increased interest from non-bank financial institutions and retail investors [3][10]. - The 3-year time deposit rate has fallen to 1.25%, down from 1.95% and 2.60% in early 2024 and 2023 respectively, leading to a shift of funds from bank deposits to non-bank financial products [9][12]. 4. Positive Fundamental Changes - Capital strength and asset quality are improving, with proactive fiscal policies easing local government debt pressures [23]. - Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to stabilize sooner than previously projected, with a slower rate of decline anticipated in 2025 [24][27]. - Capital injections have strengthened bank balance sheets, allowing for sustained dividend payments despite short-term earnings pressures [29]. 5. Key Risks - Mortgage risk remains a concern, with expectations that NPL ratios will stabilize in 2026, but a sharper decline in housing prices could delay this stabilization [35][42]. - Manufacturing and export-related sectors pose risks, as they represent approximately 40% of bank loan portfolios, with potential increased provisioning expected in 2026 [35][49]. 6. 2Q25 Earnings Expectations - Revenue growth is under pressure, with large SOE banks expected to maintain loan growth while smaller banks may grow rapidly [52]. - Potential NIM stabilization in 2Q25 is highlighted, with some banks indicating lower deposit costs [59]. - Preliminary results from BONB suggest potential improvement in asset quality, contrary to market expectations [58]. 7. Shareholder Returns - While dividend payouts for 1H25 are unlikely to change, there is potential for increases in 2H25 driven by capital injections and pressure from institutional investors [65]. Other Important Insights - Retail investors are increasingly utilizing high-dividend ETFs rather than direct stock purchases, indicating a shift in investment strategies [21]. - The compression of deposit rates is driving funds into trust products and wealth management, further lowering funding costs for non-bank institutions [16]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the Chinese banking sector as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.