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提前10天成功判断理想无法完成25Q2交付指引, 今天再下5个判断
理想TOP2· 2025-06-27 10:17
Core Viewpoint - The company is unlikely to meet its Q2 2025 delivery guidance due to insufficient sales momentum and historical performance trends [1][2]. Group 1: Delivery Guidance and Sales Performance - The company's Q2 2025 delivery guidance is set between 123,000 and 128,000 units, with April and May deliveries recorded at 33,939 and 40,856 units respectively, indicating a need for June deliveries to be between 48,205 and 53,205 units [1]. - Historical data shows that the company has only exceeded weekly insurance numbers of 13,000 units six times, with the highest two-week total being 28,020 units in December 2024, suggesting that achieving the required sales volume in June is unlikely [2]. - If the company does not update its delivery guidance, it will mark the third time in history that it fails to meet quarterly delivery targets [2]. Group 2: Strategic Changes and Market Position - Recent reforms aim to enhance sales focus on value delivery, but current strategies are not effectively achieving this goal, which may impact sales in the short term [4]. - The company is expected to eventually align its strategies with its values, but this process may take time, leading to potential short-term sales declines [4]. - The recent success of a competitor, YU7, has prompted reflections on the company's unique strengths and areas for improvement, suggesting that the company should learn from the competitor's successful strategies [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Perception - The company’s core product lines face challenges in maintaining consumer confidence, as repeated cycles of performance fluctuations can lead to loss of trust among consumers [6]. - The strong leadership of the company's founder is seen as a potential long-term advantage in competing with established players like Xiaomi, although the timeline for realizing this advantage remains uncertain [6]. - The current market perception of YU7 as a high-value vehicle is driven by consumer beliefs in its resale value, indicating that the company may need to enhance its product appeal to compete effectively [6][7].