8月7日，小米集团-W盘中一度跌超5%，股价创近两个月新低。截至发稿，小米集团跌4.17%，报51.75 港元/股。 市场消息方面，研究机构发表报告，预计小米在2025年第二季度智能手机出货量略低于先前预测，主要 受印度市场按年下降25%的拖累。 7月小米汽车交付量超过3万台，交付量的攀升得益于产能的提升。国信证券表示，小米汽车北京工厂二 期即将投产，新产能正在规划中。预计小米汽车2025年销量40万辆到50万辆，2026年销量有望突破80万 辆。 市场调研机构Canalys披露的数据显示，2025年第二季度全球智能手机市场和去年同期相比整体出货下 滑1%，这是该行业连续六个季度以来的首次下跌。小米本季度表现稳定，以15%的市场份额稳居全球 第三。 尽管小米全球市场份额在2025年第二季度达到15%的历史新高，但这以毛利率下降为代价。研究机构预 测小米2025年第二季度总收入为1126亿元人民币，略低于市场预期；调整后净利润为102亿元人民币， 符合市场预期。同时，该行下调2025年下半年IoT收入预测，以反映国家补贴政策的调整。 在电动汽车业务方面，受益于SU7 Ultra交付，研究机构预计小米2025年第 ...

8月7日，小米集团-W（1810.HK）盘中一度跌超5%，股价创近两个月新低。截至午间收盘，小米集团 跌4.35%，报51.65港元。 市场调研机构Canalys披露的数据显示，2025年第二季度全球智能手机市场和去年同期相比整体出货下 滑1%，这是该行业连续六个季度以来的首次下跌。小米本季度表现稳定，以15%的市场份额稳居全球 第三。 尽管小米全球市场份额在2025年第二季度达到15%的历史新高，但这以毛利率下降为代价。大和预测小 米2025年第二季度总收入为1126亿元人民币，略低于市场预期；调整后净利润为102亿元人民币，符合 市场预期。同时，该行下调2025年下半年IoT收入预测，以反映国家补贴政策的调整。 在电动汽车业务方面，受益于SU7 Ultra交付，大和预计小米2025年第二季度电动车交付量达8.2万台， 平均售价升至24.2万元人民币，毛利率改善至25%，电动车业务亏损进一步收窄。YU7已于7月启动交 付，二期工厂预计于9月底投产。 | 今开 | 52.150 | | 最高 | 52.800 | | 成交量 | 2.21亿股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

图 | 今开 | 52.150 | | 最高 | 52.800 | | 成交量 | 2.21亿股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 54.000 | | 最低 | 51.200 | | 成交额 | 114.72亿 | | 换手率 | 0.85% | | 市盈(TTM) | 40.69 | | 总市值 | 1.34万亿 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 季K | 年K | 更多v | 市场调研机构Canalys披露的数据显示，2025年第二季度全球智能手机市场和去年同期相比整体出货下 滑1%，这是该行业连续六个季度以来的首次下跌。小米本季度表现稳定，以15%的市场份额稳居全球 第三。 片来源：界面图库 尽管小米全球市场份额在2025年第二季度达到15%的历史新高，但这以毛利率下降为代价。大和预测小 米2025年第二季度总收入为1126亿元人民币，略低于市场预期；调整后净利润为102亿元人民币，符合 市场预期。同时，该行下调2025年下半年IoT收入预测，以反映国家补贴政策的调整。 8月7日，小米集团-W（ ...

每日晨报 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 7月 A 股市场新开户数达 196 万户,同比增长 71% www.chinastock.com.cn 2025 年 8 月 5 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 宏观:上半年分省经济数据的七大看点 核心观点 近日，31个省份陆续公布 2024 年上半年经济数据。在上半年中国经济实现同比增长 5.3% 的较好表现下,不同省份表现如何?区域经济呈现哪些重要变化?本报告从省域上半年经济数 据出发,总结出七点重要内容: 一、经济大省挑大梁,但内部也存在分化。上半年广东等 GDP 前十省市加权 GDP 同比增速 5.4%,高于全国 0.1 个百分点。GDP 总量占全国的比重由 2024 年的 61.22%提升至上半年的 61.62%。对 GDP 增量的贡献率也超六成,达 62.32%。广东、江苏两省贡献全国 20.7%的 GDP。 经济大省挑大梁作用进一步凸显。但经济大省内部也存在较大分化。广东 4.2%的增速垫底，江 苏则实现 5.7%的增长。地产持续调整叠加出 ...

宁德时代厦门/东营两大基地开建 7 月 26 日，东营时代零碳产业园项目现场推进会举行，全国首个 100% 绿电直供零碳产业园在山东东营开建。 据悉，该项目由宁德时代投资， 一期建设的 40GWh 锂电池绿色制造基地是整个零碳产业园的核心项目 ，计划打造 "零碳工厂 + 灯塔工厂"双 高标准示范项目，形成全链条绿色产业集群，预计明年建成投用。 海雷新能源冲刺IPO 另一边，近期厦门时代二期项目生产区完成桩基施工，进入主体施工阶段， 项目计划投资 50 亿元建设年产 30GWh 全智能化新能源动力电池 生产线， 预计 2026 年二季度试投产。 7月24日， 海雷新能源继5月披露 辅导工作进展报告以来，再次 披露相关进展报告（第五期）， 拟登陆北交所。 报告显示， 海雷新能源原聘请的 辅导机构为 东莞证券，于 2024年4月17日完成辅导备案，因为 战略调整，其辅导机构改聘 华泰联合证券。 双方于 2025年3月26日签署 上市辅导协议， 辅导期间为2025年4月1日至2025年6月30日。 接下来， 海雷新能源将在上一阶段辅导工作的基础上继续接受针对性辅导，包括 公司内部控制规范运作辅导、 人员辅导等。 亿纬 ...

Core Insights - The market for new energy vehicles is experiencing a rapid pace of differentiation, indicating the beginning of a competitive elimination phase in the second half of the year [1] Company Performance - Leap Motor has become the first new energy brand to surpass 50,000 monthly sales, achieving 50,129 units in July, marking a 4.42% increase from June [2] - Xiaopeng Motors also reached a historical high with sales of 36,717 units, reflecting a 6.08% month-on-month growth, with the MONA M03 contributing over 15,000 units [3] - Xiaomi's sales exceeded 30,000 units for the first time, showing an approximate 20% increase from the previous month [3] - Zeekr and Lynk & Co combined sold 44,193 units, achieving growth in both year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons [3] - Ideal and NIO reported significant declines, with Ideal's sales dropping to 30,731 units, a 15.29% decrease, and NIO selling just over 21,000 units, down 15.68% [3][4] Market Trends - The overall sales for the ten new energy brands remained stable month-on-month, totaling 309,905 units in July, slightly down from 314,649 units in June [2] - The industry is shifting towards a "stock restructuring" logic as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 50%, emphasizing the need for companies to maintain sufficient scale and continuously innovate to capture market share [6]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is challenging the 25,000 point mark, with active trading and a positive risk appetite despite limited corporate earnings improvement [2][6] - The market is awaiting catalysts such as potential China-US summits or unexpected policies from mainland China to drive further gains [2] Sector Focus - The focus for today includes the release of China's one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] Macro Focus - The Chinese government is encouraging foreign investment through various measures to enhance project service guarantees and optimize land allocation [7] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable decline in the manufacturing sector [7] - The Ministry of Finance announced plans for a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year [7] - The People's Bank of China maintained the LPR at 3% for one year and 3.5% for five years, aligning with market expectations [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting innovation in future industries, including humanoid robots and digital transformation in various sectors [7] Corporate News - Xinyi Solar's product prices have dropped, leading to an expected profit decline of 56%-66% for the first half of the year [4] - Meituan, JD.com, and Ele.me were summoned by the market regulator to ensure rational competition in the food delivery sector [8] - HSBC is reportedly dissolving a team focused on managing geopolitical risks despite increasing threats [9] - Ant Group is collaborating with Citibank to enhance foreign exchange risk management using AI technology [9] - Meituan and Alibaba's Taobao are engaged in a price war, reportedly spending 1.6 billion RMB on promotions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by intense competition, with sales growth driven by promotional activities and significant reliance on government subsidies [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The wholesale volume of passenger cars reached 13.279 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, while retail sales totaled 10.9 million units, up 10.8% [3]. - Exports showed strong performance, with 2.16 million units exported from January to May, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, and new energy vehicle (NEV) exports reached 1.16 million units, up 33% [3]. - The promotional discount for traditional fuel vehicles remained stable at 23.3%, while NEV promotions decreased to 10.2%, indicating ongoing price competition [3][4]. - The inventory pressure on dealers is significant, with only 27.5% of 4S stores meeting sales targets, leading to increased stock levels and financial strain [4]. Group 2: Traditional Domestic Brands - The price war among traditional domestic brands continues, with promotional discounts for fuel vehicles reaching 18.3%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - BYD leads the market with a sales volume of 2.146 million units, a 33% increase, while other brands like Geely and Changan also show significant growth [5][6]. - Geely's NEV sales reached 725,200 units, a 126% increase, highlighting its competitive positioning against BYD [7]. Group 3: New Forces in the Market - New energy vehicle startups face significant operational pressures, with only 3 out of 12 achieving sales targets above 40% [8]. - Leap Motor leads in cumulative deliveries among new forces, while XPeng Motors has seen a rebound in sales with its new model [8]. - The market demands a strong value proposition from new energy vehicles, emphasizing the need for competitive pricing and unique product positioning [8]. Group 4: Joint Ventures - Joint venture brands have shown signs of recovery, with overall sales increasing by 11% in the first half of 2025, driven by fuel and hybrid vehicle promotions [10]. - The promotional intensity for fuel vehicles reached a historical peak of 23.1%, particularly in the luxury segment [10]. - Although joint ventures lag in NEV penetration, some models are gaining traction, indicating potential for future growth [10]. Group 5: Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - Price wars are expected to persist, with ongoing product launches and competitive pricing strategies [11]. - The continuation of subsidy policies will be crucial for stimulating market demand, as previous incentives have largely been exhausted [11]. - The automotive industry is transitioning towards a more complex competitive landscape, requiring brands to innovate beyond traditional product offerings [11][13].

Core Insights - The sales data from major automotive companies for the first half of the year reflects current market performance and indicates the trajectory for achieving annual targets [1] - There is a significant disparity in the performance of different companies, with some achieving over 40% of their annual sales targets, while others lag behind [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors achieved the highest completion rate at 51.89%, delivering 197,189 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 279.01% [2][4] - Geely's sales reached 1,409,180 units, with a completion rate of 46.97%, and a notable growth in its new energy vehicle segment [2][5] - SAIC Motor Corporation reported a total of 2,052,608 units sold, achieving a completion rate of 45.61% [2][5] - BYD's sales reached 2,145,954 units, but its completion rate was only 39.02%, with a notable decline in domestic sales in May and June [2][9] - NIO delivered 114,150 vehicles, achieving a completion rate of 25.94%, indicating significant pressure on its annual targets [2][10] Group 2: Market Trends - The automotive market is expected to maintain healthy and stable growth, driven by new policies and a rich supply of new products [11] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that new energy vehicle sales could reach 16 million units, with new cars accounting for over 50% of total sales [11]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing intense competition in the first half of 2025, with significant sales growth but high sales pressure [1][2][4] - The market dynamics are shifting, with traditional automakers, new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers, and joint ventures all vying for market share [3][9] Overall Market Performance - The wholesale volume of passenger cars reached 13.279 million units from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, while retail sales totaled 10.9 million units, up 10.8% [4] - Exports of automobiles were particularly strong, with 2.16 million units exported from January to May, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth [4] - NEV exports surged to 1.16 million units, a 33% increase year-on-year, accounting for 43% of total exports [4] Sales and Promotions - Traditional fuel vehicle promotions remained stable at 23.3%, while NEV promotions decreased slightly to 10.2%, still up 1.6 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The reliance on government subsidies is significant, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies by the end of June, benefiting about 70% of private car buyers [4] Dealer Inventory and Pressure - Dealers faced significant inventory pressure, with a dealer inventory warning index reaching 56.6%, indicating high levels of unsold stock [4] - Only 27.5% of 4S dealerships met their sales targets in the first half of the year, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market [4] Company-Specific Performance - BYD led the sales with 2.146 million units sold, a 33% increase, but only achieved 39% of its annual target of 5.5 million units [5] - Geely saw a remarkable 47% increase in sales, reaching 1.409 million units, achieving 52% of its target [5] - Changan and Chery also reported modest growth, while Great Wall Motors lagged with only a 1.8% increase in sales [5][6] New Energy Vehicle Landscape - The competition among NEV manufacturers is intensifying, with BYD maintaining a leading position while other companies like Geely are aggressively entering the market [6][9] - New energy vehicle sales are becoming increasingly competitive, with companies needing to focus on comprehensive cost-performance advantages to succeed [9][12] Joint Venture Dynamics - Joint ventures are beginning to show signs of recovery, with major players like FAW Toyota and SAIC Volkswagen reporting sales growth [9][10] - The penetration rate of NEVs among joint ventures remains low at 5.3%, but some models are showing potential for significant sales [10] Market Outlook - The competitive landscape is expected to become even more intense in the second half of 2025, with all players needing to adapt to changing market conditions [10][15] - The reliance on subsidy policies will be crucial for stimulating demand, as the market has largely exhausted previous rounds of incentives [15]