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铁矿石:谈判博弈,矿价波动加剧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price fluctuations of iron ore are not driven by supply - demand factors but by the structural contradictions between cost and inventory, including rising energy costs and freight, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable goods [1] - The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms, with a more realistic GDP growth target and an increased scale of policy - based financial instruments [2] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises is 231.09 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 million tons [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures increased by 10.5 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.30%. The price of contract I2605 is 817.0 yuan/ton, the yesterday's position is 408,026 hands, with a change of - 6,288 hands [1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jinbuba fines (61%), and Super Special fines (56.5%) all increased, while the prices of domestic ores such as Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines and Jinbuba fines decreased. Spreads such as I2605 - I2609, I2609 - I2701, and the price difference between different ore types showed certain changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The price fluctuations of iron ore are due to cost and inventory structural contradictions, not supply - demand factors [1] - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms, with a more realistic GDP growth target and an increased scale of policy - based financial instruments [2] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]