Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoint - No clear core viewpoint is presented in the given content; it mainly provides price data of various iron ore varieties and futures contracts. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian mainstream ores**: Newman powder is priced at 798, down 7 from the previous day and up 4 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 854.2; PB powder is at 806, down 2 and up 9; Mac powder is at 808, down 2 and up 13; Jinbuba powder is at 759, down 2 and up 9; Mixed powder is at 742, up 2 and up 2; Super special powder is at 684, up 4 and up 9; Carajás powder is at 895, up 10 and up 20 [1]. - **Brazilian mainstream ores**: Brazilian mixed ore is at 852, down 6 and up 19; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 770, down 2 and up 9; Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 775, down 2 and up 9 [1]. - **Other ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 884, up 6 and up 11; 61% Indian powder is at 748, down 2 and up 9; Karara concentrate powder is at 885, up 3 and up 7; Roy Hill powder is at 793, down 2 and up 9; KUMBA powder is at 865, down 2 and up 9; 57% Indian powder is at 619, up 4 and up 9; Atlas powder is at 737, up 2 and up 2; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 976, down 6 and down 6 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2601 is at 814.5, up 9.5 from the previous day and up 13 for the week, with a monthly spread of -39.5; i2605 is at 797.0, up 7.5 and up 14, with a spread of 17.5; i2609 is at 775.0, up 6.5 and up 14, with a spread of 22.0 [1]. - **SGX contracts**: FE01 is at 105.55, up 0.20 and up 0.88, with a spread of -3.24; FE05 is at 104.26, up 0.24 and up 1.24, with a spread of 1.29; FE09 is at 102.31, up 0.26 and up 1.29, with a spread of 1.95 [1]. Other Data - **Import profit**: Newman powder's import profit is 14.42; Mac powder's is 49.11; Jinbuba powder's is 44.36; Mixed powder's is 5.63; Super special powder's is 1.34; Carajás powder's is -14.77; Brazilian mixed ore's is 14.89; Roy Hill powder's is 56.49 [1]. - **Premium data**: Information about U - ball/pellet premium and PB block/lump ore premium is presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical data is incomplete [1].

Core Viewpoint - Fujian Makeng Mining Co., Ltd. plans to go public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 1 billion yuan for the expansion of its iron ore mining project, with a focus on increasing production capacity and improving operational efficiency [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Makeng Mining was established in 1995 and specializes in iron ore resource development and utilization [2]. - As of the signing date of the prospectus, Fujian Rare Earth holds 45.90% of the shares, making it the largest shareholder, while the Fujian Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission indirectly controls 55.9% of the voting rights [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported stable financial performance with revenues of 2.057 billion yuan, 1.962 billion yuan, 2.050 billion yuan, and 1.045 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same periods was 659 million yuan, 654 million yuan, 664 million yuan, and 362 million yuan, indicating consistent profitability [5]. Group 3: Business Operations - The main products include iron concentrate, molybdenum concentrate, and limestone, with iron concentrate accounting for over 90% of the main business revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [7][8]. - The company relies heavily on the Makeng Iron Mine, with no other mining operations, which poses a risk if any adverse events affect this single source [8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The company's revenue is primarily generated from sales to steel enterprises in Fujian Province, with a high customer concentration, where the top five customers accounted for 96.89%, 97.68%, 92.50%, and 82.21% of annual revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [11]. - Fluctuations in iron ore prices significantly impact the company's financial performance, with potential declines in prices due to macroeconomic factors and competition from major global mining companies [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the "anti-involution" sentiment drove the overall sentiment of commodities. The supply and demand of iron ore were relatively good, and the price rose under the influence of sentiment. After the sentiment subsided, the price fluctuated. In August, the supply is expected to recover to some extent as July was the traditional off-season for overseas mines' shipments, and the near-term arrivals may increase. The daily average hot metal output is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the weakening demand of the downstream terminal needs attention. The port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Overall, the focus of the black sector remains on coking coal, and the iron ore fundamentals do not show obvious contradictions, with the price expected to fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the production restriction expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region before the "September 3rd Parade" [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The weekly average of global iron ore shipments in July was 30.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5885 million tons. The weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The domestic daily average hot metal output in July was 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of July, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 126 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 104 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 146 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -11 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of July, the pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of July, the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.9029 million tons, a decrease of 0.9653 million tons. The iron concentrate inventory was 10.815 million tons, a decrease of 1.0125 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 16.825 million tons, an increase of 1.7881 million tons. The Australian ore inventory was 61.9325 million tons, an increase of 0.9517 million tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 47.786 million tons, a decrease of 1.442 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In July, the weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.788 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.771 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.4773 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9315 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.1115 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0575 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.5103 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9163 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports in July was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons. In June, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6103 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.51%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 480300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The domestic hot metal output in July was 74.79 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month. At the end of July, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In July, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 3.0041 million tons, a decrease of 0.0038 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of July 31, the basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 50.07 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.04% [74].

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore remain stable, with PB powder at 772.0 CNY/ton and lump ore at 874.0 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market - As of July 31, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 789.0 CNY/ton, down 2.38%, while the distant month 2601 contract closed at 766.0 CNY/ton, down 2.65% [2] Basis - The optimal delivery product is lump ore, with costs for lump ore, PB powder, mixed powder, and JMB powder at 793.4 CNY/ton, 818.4 CNY/ton, 823.4 CNY/ton, and 831.6 CNY/ton respectively. The basis for the 09 contract is 14.4 CNY/ton for lump ore, 39.4 CNY/ton for PB powder, 44.4 CNY/ton for mixed powder, and 52.6 CNY/ton for JMB powder [3] Demand - Daily iron output is 2.4071 million tons, down by 15,200 tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 83.46%, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, down by 0.57%; and the profit margin for steel mills is 65.37%, up by 1.73% [4] Supply - Global shipments increased by 918,000 tons week-on-week to 32.09 million tons, while the port arrival volume decreased by 130,700 tons to 22.405 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 105.948 million tons, up by 782,000 tons [5] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily dispatch volume down month-on-month. The inventory at 45 ports is 136.579 million tons, down by 1.3248 million tons; average daily dispatch volume is 3.0271 million tons, down by 124,400 tons; and steel mills' imported ore inventory is 90.1209 million tons, up by 1.2687 million tons [6] Market Sentiment - The iron ore 09 contract experienced a volatile downward trend. Despite an increase in global shipments, the volumes from Australia and Brazil slightly declined, and port arrivals decreased. Steel mills maintain high profit margins, with iron output slightly declining but remaining around 2.4 million tons per day. The demand from the end market shows strong performance despite seasonal weakness. Inventory levels at ports are decreasing, while steel mills' inventories are rising. Looking ahead, iron output is expected to remain high in August, averaging around 2.35 million tons per day, supported by improving steel mill profits. New supply-side policies are anticipated, and there are expectations of production restrictions in Hebei ahead of the military parade [7]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore producer, reported its lowest half-year underlying profit in five years due to weak iron ore prices driven by oversupply concerns and sluggish demand, offsetting gains from its copper business [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, Rio Tinto's underlying profit was $4.81 billion, below market expectations of $5.05 billion, marking the worst half-year performance since 2020 [1] - The interim dividend for the first half of the year was announced at $1.48 per share, down from $1.77 per share the previous year [1] Market Conditions - Iron ore prices declined in the first half of the year due to reduced steel production in China and increased iron ore supply from Australia, Brazil, and South Africa, negatively impacting Rio Tinto's earnings from steelmaking raw materials [1] - A Morgan Stanley report indicated that iron ore prices could rebound to $100 per ton by the end of the year, as the market anticipates China will curb steel industry overcapacity and replenish inventories by the end of 2025 [1] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its focus towards its copper business in response to the challenging iron ore market conditions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global iron ore supply is expected to expand with the upcoming production of Simandou Iron Ore in Africa, while emerging economies such as India will drive demand growth. The iron ore price is projected to fluctuate within a reasonable range of $80 - $100 per ton in the next 3 - 5 years under normal circumstances [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Iron Ore Production 1.1 Global Iron Ore Production - Since 2000, global iron ore production increased significantly before 2014 and has remained stable at around 2 billion tons per year since 2015. In 2024, global iron ore production was 2.33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3.6% [11]. 1.2 China's Iron Ore Production - From 2000 - 2013, China's iron ore production increased steadily due to the expansion of small and medium - sized mines. However, since 2014, production has declined due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and competition from imported ores. In 2024, China's iron ore concentrate production was 284 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3%. The main production areas are North, Northeast, East, and Southwest China, with North China being the largest, accounting for 34.1% [12][15]. II. Iron Ore Trade 2.1 Global Iron Ore Trade - Before 2015, global iron ore trade volume increased rapidly, and has since remained stable at a high level. In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.711 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Australia and Brazil are the two major exporters, accounting for 76.3% of global exports. In the same year, global iron ore imports reached 1.638 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%, with China being the largest importer, accounting for 72% [17][22]. 2.2 China's Iron Ore Trade - Since the 21st century, China has become the world's largest iron ore importer, mainly importing from Australia and Brazil. In 2024, China's iron ore imports reached 1.237 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was about 5% [26][27]. III. Iron Ore Consumption 3.1 Global Iron Ore Consumption - Global iron ore consumption has been growing steadily in the past 15 years. China, India, and Japan are the top three consumers, accounting for 58.9%, 10.3%, and 4.4% of global consumption in 2023 respectively. From 2010 to 2024, global iron ore apparent consumption increased from 1.958 billion tons to 2.437 billion tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.59% [31][33]. 3.2 China's Iron Ore Consumption - Affected by the domestic economic cycle, China's iron ore consumption increased before 2015 and has remained stable at a high level since then. In 2024, China's iron ore apparent consumption was 1.473 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was 3.15%. China's iron ore demand is highly dependent on imports, with an import - to - consumption ratio of 86% in 2023. The most demanded iron ore type is sinter ore, followed by pellet ore and lump ore [37][38][43]. IV. China's Iron Ore Industry Competition - From 2003 - 2017, small and medium - sized iron ore producers expanded rapidly. After 2017, due to mine consolidation, many small mines exited the market, and the market share of large key enterprises increased from 18% in 2010 to 39% in 2023 [47]. V. Global Iron Ore Production Cost - Global iron ore production costs vary significantly among different mines. The top four global iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, and FMG) have low production costs and high iron grades. China's iron ore generally has low iron content and variable production costs ranging from 300 - 900 yuan per ton. Iron ore price fluctuations can adjust global supply. When the price is between $80 - $100 per ton, the global shipping volume is about 137 million tons [50][51]. VI. Steel Industry Overview 6.1 Steel Production - Since the 21st century, global pig iron and crude steel production have grown rapidly, with the growth rate slowing down after 2015. In 2024, global pig iron and crude steel production were 1.421 billion tons and 1.934 billion tons respectively. China is the world's largest steel producer, with pig iron and crude steel production of 893 million tons and 1.099 billion tons respectively in 2024, accounting for 62.9% and 56.8% of the global total. The main production areas in China are Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces [53]. 6.2 Steel Consumption - In 2024, global crude steel consumption was 1.938 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's crude steel consumption was 989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, accounting for 51.03% of the global total. Consumption outside China was 947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Since the implementation of the "Three Red Lines" policy in the real estate sector in 2021, China's steel consumption structure has changed significantly, with a sharp decline in real - estate steel demand and an increase in export and manufacturing demand [61]. VII. Iron Ore Price Performance - Iron ore prices fluctuate with supply and demand. After the 2008 global financial crisis, prices rose rapidly due to strong demand from emerging economies and insufficient global supply. From 2011 - 2015, prices fell due to over - supply and weakening Chinese demand. After 2016, prices were volatile at a low level due to steel industry reforms. After the Vale dam collapse and post - COVID - 19 recovery, prices reached a record high. Since 2021, prices have been under pressure due to China's crude steel production cuts and real - estate policies. In 2025, the supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is currently fluctuating around $100 per ton [65].

Group 1 - Iron ore futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract reaching 763.0 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.60% [1] - On July 9, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 942,000 tons, a decrease of 5.71% compared to the previous period; forward spot transactions were 1.56 million tons [2] - The Guinea Simandou project, jointly developed by China Baowu and Rio Tinto, is expected to be a major source of global iron ore capacity growth over the next 5 to 10 years, with reserves estimated at 2.4 billion tons and an iron grade of 65% [2] Group 2 - According to Minmetals Futures, macroeconomic expectations are increasingly influencing market dynamics, with previous seasonal low iron water levels and recent sentiment boosts contributing to upward price elasticity [3] - Donghai Futures noted that the recent rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, with a marginal weakening in the iron ore fundamentals [3] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 3.62 million tons this week, while port inventories also saw a decline of 820,000 tons [3]

Core Insights - Iron ore prices are experiencing increased volatility, raising questions about the future supply outlook [1] - Analysts suggest that China's steel production may stabilize at X million tons annually, impacting iron ore demand [1] Industry Analysis - The fluctuation in iron ore prices is closely linked to changes in steel production levels in China, which is a major consumer of iron ore [1] - The stability of steel production at X million tons per year could lead to a more predictable demand for iron ore, influencing market dynamics [1]