作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格持稳，柳州现货价周内维持在5340元/吨，环比无变化。 | | | | 但基差走强，周环比增长57.69%至82元/吨，反映期货价格下跌后现货相对坚挺。 | | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度下跌0.57%，收于5258元/吨，周内价格窄幅震荡。 | | | | 持仓量环比减少1.41%至426717手，显示市场交投情绪偏谨慎。 | | | | 【供应方面】：国内正值压榨高峰，新糖上市带来销售压力。仓单数量周环比激 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | 增135.24%至14126张，有效预报合计环比下降92.04%，表明实盘压力正加速转化 | 白糖主力合约区 | | | 为盘面压力。 | 间内延续震荡， | | | 【需求方面】：市场情绪偏空，周度市场调查显示看跌比例达50%，看升比例环比 | 方向性突破需等 | | | 下降33.33%至20%，下游消费 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of white sugar is expected to oscillate within the range formed by domestic production cost ($5400/ton) and import cost line (about $5200/ton) in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with a slightly stronger trend but limited rebound space. The core contradiction lies in the game between the high - supply pressure brought by the new domestic sugar listing and the strong support formed by the import cost line and domestic production cost. Although the price broke through the oscillation range driven by short - covering and cost support during the week, the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and inventory and the strong bearish sentiment restricted the upside space, and it is expected to oscillate below the cost line in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract rose 2.36% from 14.82 to 15.17, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract rose 3.87% from 5088 to 5285 - Spot: The current prices of Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming increased by 1.91%, 1.91%, and 0.39% respectively, while the current price of Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 68.31% from 142 to 45 - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 39.52% from 3611 to 5038, the effective forecast decreased by 5.91% from 1490 to 1402, and the total of warehouse receipts + effective forecast increased by 26.25% from 5101 to 6440 - Market Sentiment: The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 15 percentage points to 25%, the bearish ratio decreased by 15 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral ratio remained unchanged at 20% [5] 3.1.2. Domestic Futures and Spot - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.1.3. Raw Sugar Futures - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.2. Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.3. Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.4. China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.5. China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.6. Main Sugar Importing Countries of China - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.7. China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost increased by 3.79% to 4052, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 3.88% to 5169, the in - quota import profit decreased by 6.93% to 1732, the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 22.08% to 614, the premium increased by 33.33% to 0.04, and the shipping cost decreased by 6.35% to 33.03 - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost increased by 4.28% to 4094, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 4.38% to 5224, the in - quota import profit decreased by 8.10% to 1690, the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 26.45% to 559, the premium remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [30] 3.3. International Market Fundamentals 3.3.1. Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2. Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.3. Sugar Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.4. Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.5. Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.6. International Raw Sugar Premium and Shipping Cost - Not elaborated in the provided content