战后追偿预支机制
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欧洲准备打出最后王牌,动用俄罗斯海外资产,够乌克兰再战五年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-04 00:03
Core Viewpoint - Europe is planning to utilize frozen Russian overseas assets to finance Ukraine's war efforts, potentially allowing Ukraine to sustain its military operations for an additional five years through a complex financial strategy [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Strategy - The plan involves using €210 billion in frozen Russian assets as collateral to issue "Ukrainian Reconstruction Bonds," which could unlock up to €140 billion in loans for Ukraine [4]. - The loans will be specifically allocated for military supplies, infrastructure repairs, and government salaries, ensuring that the funds are used for essential wartime needs [4]. - A unique aspect of this strategy is that if Russia is defeated and required to pay war reparations, those payments will be used to repay the loans, effectively making Russia finance its own opposition [4][14]. Group 2: Shift in European Stance - Initially, European nations were hesitant to touch these frozen assets due to concerns over the principle of sovereign asset inviolability, fearing it could undermine global financial trust [5][6]. - The urgency of Ukraine's financial needs and the unpredictability of U.S. aid have pressured Europe to find a more sustainable funding solution, leading to a shift in strategy [9][10]. - The approach has evolved from utilizing the income generated by frozen assets to now considering the principal amount as collateral, marking a significant legal and ethical shift [10]. Group 3: Support and Opposition - The G7 countries are reportedly in favor of this plan, viewing it as a necessary response to Russia's illegal actions in Ukraine [11]. - However, Belgium and Luxembourg have expressed concerns about the legal implications and potential risks to their financial systems, emphasizing the need for judicial validation before any action is taken [13]. - Legal experts warn that this strategy could be interpreted as a form of expropriation, which may lead to significant legal challenges and financial repercussions for Europe [13]. Group 4: Potential Implications - If successful, this plan could redefine the rules of international finance, making a nation's overseas assets vulnerable if deemed to be engaged in aggression, thus creating a long-term financial constraint on Russia [14][16]. - For Ukraine, this funding could provide a crucial lifeline, allowing it to maintain military operations and leverage in negotiations, effectively extending its capacity to resist [14]. - On a global scale, this could set a dangerous precedent, undermining the principle of sovereign asset protection and potentially leading to a fragmented financial system as countries seek to safeguard their assets [16].